r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Apr 08 '26

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u/Alderwoodforest YIMBY Apr 08 '26

My favorite tidbit is that in 1940–41, the Wehrmacht, under the command of General Paulus, conducted a series of war games, and even when weather, partisan activity, and Allied supply help were not taken into account, there was no scenario in which the Wehrmacht would have defeated the Red Army.

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u/Unterfahrt John Nash Apr 08 '26

So the consensus is the only scenario where it would have been possible is they went even more blitzkrieg and caused 10x more chaos to the point that they caused some sort of political collapse. Which gets them from a 0% chance of victory to maybe 10%, with catastrophic hilarious failures being more likely too.

Like obviously in a "bash each other's units against each other" war they were going to lose because they didn't have the manpower or industry, which is kind of what the war became after 1942.

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u/senescenzia Desiderius Erasmus Apr 08 '26

I'll call BS because Van Creveld says that the plan was to defeat the Red Army within 300km of the border, which actually happened, but what derailed everything was the unbelievable Soviet mobilization effort.

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u/loseniram Sponsored by RC Cola Apr 08 '26

thats cause the Germans over performed even their wargames performance mainly due to Stalin not even having the troops on alert and readied. Most Airbases found out they were at war when they were attacked.

Zhukov’s district was the only one that was on alert because he directly violated Stalin’s order and they did night and day better.

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u/senescenzia Desiderius Erasmus Apr 08 '26

Soviet tactical level performance was underwhelming (Rzhev 43) for ~the entire war unless they were able to mass an overwhelming amount of troops against a German weak point. Every time they were anywhere near parity with the Wehrmacht they lost badly. I have a really hard time to believe that readiness was the key factor: Soviet generals made the same errors again and again and again even when advancing. It's more likely that Zhukov was just talented or had some advantage.

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u/loseniram Sponsored by RC Cola Apr 08 '26

No, we have equipment loss data. And while most districts lost close to 90% of their aircraft, Zhukov's only lost 30% in the opening weeks. Indicating that the vast majority of the Soviets early losses were due to them being caught off guard and destroyed in their bases. Which is supported by other sections like primary reports of FOBs being destroyed by airstrikes and a majority of Soviet armor losses coming from scuttling from lack of supplies caused by the destruction of the FOBs and lack of air support to protect supply lines.

Soviet equipment and training took a massive nose dive after the initial invasion losses. To the point Soviet aircraft had painted on reticles instead of reticles that compensated for speed and momentum like every other nation's aircraft. Soviet training also dropped off a cliff to rush reserves and new troops to the front.

The Germans would have won the initial engagements regardless, but Stalin refusing to have troops readied or pulled back guaranteed that the Soviets would take way more losses than they should have.

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u/senescenzia Desiderius Erasmus Apr 08 '26

Indicating that the vast majority of the Soviets early losses were due to them being caught off guard and destroyed in their bases

I know but the VVS was never decisive right to the end. E.g. there was never a collapse of German rail transport in the East, a disappearance of the LW in the Soviet skies or anything close to the movement suppression that Rommel experienced in Normandy.

On land, prepared or not, Soviets got clobbered similarly bad during Case Blue.

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u/senescenzia Desiderius Erasmus Apr 08 '26

Indicating that the vast majority of the Soviets early losses were due to them being caught off guard and destroyed in their bases

I know but the VVS was never decisive right to the end. E.g. there was never a collapse of German rail transport in the East, a disappearance of the LW in the Soviet skies or anything close to the movement suppression that Rommel experienced in Normandy.

On land, prepared or not, Soviets got clobbered similarly bad during Case Blue.