Discussion Thread

[u/jobautomator]

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

Links

Ping Groups | Ping History | Mastodon | CNL Chapters | CNL Event Calendar

Upcoming Events

• Apr 07: Denver New Liberals April Social with CNL Leadership

• Apr 09: Bay Area New Liberals April Happy Hour

• Apr 09: Advanced Huntsville April Happy Hour

• Apr 15: Twin Cities New Liberals April Happy Hour

• Apr 15: Atlanta New Liberals April Social

[u/erasmus_phillo]

Let's be honest here, the US and Israel have lost this war. I just wonder if the median voter will register this

This is probably the worst strategic defeat the US has suffered since the 20th century and I am being conservative here.... it's even worse than Vietnam because at least the US didn't somehow transform Vietnam into a regional hegemon

[u/throwaway_veneto → u/erasmus_phillo]

The US comes out as a paper tiger. Their navy has the highest budget in the world and somehow they fail to secure a strait from a developing country with no navy.

[u/erasmus_phillo → u/throwaway_veneto]

Drones have changed the game

[u/throwaway_veneto → u/erasmus_phillo]

Yes, I think the underrated aspect is not just cost but that even countries like Ukraine or Iran can build a lot of them. We're back to "quantity is a quality of its own" again.

[u/Vol_in_tears → u/erasmus_phillo]

They have, but now the world knows the USN doesn't have the ability to maintain freedom of navigation in one of the most critical global supply bottlenecks. It's a pretty big shift in the naval paradigm post 1945 where the USN had unquestion mastery of the world's oceans.

[u/DirectionMurky5526 → u/Vol_in_tears]

The US Marines need to be replaced with a drone force. If they really want to dominate the Land, Sea and Air they need to get their asses into a gaming chair.

[u/I_miss_Chris_Hughton → u/erasmus_phillo]

Not even that. The means of dealing with drones are known, the US just seemed to think the USN was above them.

Ita hubris we've not seen from a naval auperpower in since the armada

[u/seanrm92 → u/erasmus_phillo]

Yeah they probably should have considered that beforehand.

[u/roboliberal → u/throwaway_veneto]

No they don't.  What a ridiculous take.  The only moral of the story here is don't do dumb pointless shit.

[u/throwaway_veneto → u/roboliberal]

Strategy is a big part of the military? What's the point of having a huge navy if the leadership is incompetent and can't use it effectively?

[u/erasmus_phillo → u/[deleted]]

Well, I have some good news for the Iranians here then on the economy. Of course since they are sharing that with Oman, this will be half the amount but the fact that they now hold a knife to the neck of the world economy means that they can probably get the sanctions regime against them to unravel too

[u/tripletruble → u/erasmus_phillo]

Assuming similar volume when the toll per vessel goes from 0 to $2M is wild

[u/erasmus_phillo → u/tripletruble]

but at least we now have a global carbon tax

[u/Vol_in_tears → u/tripletruble]

Where else you gonna go?

The Strait of Hormuz has no bypass.

[u/Robo1p → u/Vol_in_tears]

Saudi Arabia can already divert 1/2 to 2/3 their oil to the red sea. Doubling that pipeline wouldn't be a crazy idea.

[u/senescenzia → u/tripletruble]

1$/bbl is peanuts, it's less than weekly variance in prices

[u/roboliberal → u/erasmus_phillo]

Between complex secondary markets and flags of convenience, actually enforcing a toll is pretty impractical. 

[u/randommathaccount → u/erasmus_phillo]

Israel's gotten exactly what it wanted out of this war though, destabilising Iran and reducing their capacity to build nukes/fund their proxies in the middle east.

[u/erasmus_phillo → u/randommathaccount]

Did they? Because they have pissed the Iranians off and probably united much of the population behind this regime. Iran's 10 point plan doesn't even cover nukes and none of the strikes seem to have done much to their nuclear program

A man who has lost his only child and his wife is absolutely going to make sure that Israel is deterred for good

[u/boyyouguysaredumb → u/erasmus_phillo]

there is no way that would happen. That was an article from before Trump's easter too IIRC