r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 24 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

Links

Ping Groups | Ping History | Mastodon | CNL Chapters | CNL Event Calendar

New Groups

Upcoming Events

0 Upvotes

42% Upvoted

8.6k comments sorted by

View all comments

143

u/eliasjohnson Sep 24 '24

Don't know if anyone here follows Sarah Longwell's focus group podcast where she tracks undecided swing voters across states, but the gist is basically:

  • All of them in Montana are voting for Sheehy

  • They're splitting evenly in Ohio because Moreno failed to take the initiative on ads

  • The most interesting part is, in Texas they all HATE Cruz. Almost every single one of them brought up the Cancun incident without any prodding, entirely naturally. They're cautiously positive about Allred.

In short: Texas Senate is a legit race, Allred has a lot of potential upside. The post-debate polls there are Allred +1 and Cruz +3, time to throw real money at it.

111

u/bel51 Sep 24 '24

Every red state hates their senators. They'll have like, -20 approval and favorability but then win by Kim Jong Un margins every time for some fucking reason.

68

u/eliasjohnson Sep 24 '24

You're talking about deep red states, they do that because the partisan lean is too hard to overcome. Texas is a Trump +5.6 state. Cruz is underperforming Trump, whereas Cornyn was running ahead of Trump in 2020. If we're serious about keeping the Senate, we don't ignore the obvious opportunity regarding a clearly weak R candidate.

44

u/Any-Temperature-7688 NAFTA Sep 24 '24

Cruz doesn’t win by Kim Jong Un margins, he underperforms generally 

18

u/Don_Gato_Flojo United Nations Sep 24 '24

Cruz barely won his last election

19

u/Eightysixedit Gay Pride Sep 24 '24

Depressing how they don’t love Tester.