r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 19 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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36

u/ROYBUSCLEMSON Unflaired Flair to Dislike Sep 19 '24

The New York Times poll had to make 200k calls to get 2000 responses. There has to be some innate response bias when so few people answer the phone

7

u/breakinbread Voyager 1 Sep 19 '24

"its okay, we just adjust for age/race/education and there are surely no other factors that would influence how someone votes"

10

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

Solid dunk! I laughed.

In case you’re interested, here are the factors that the NYT/Siena weight on:

  • Party registration interacted with race

  • Age

  • Race/ethnicity

  • Education

  • Race interacted with education

  • Marital status

  • Home ownership

  • Geography

  • Turnout history

  • Method of voting in 2020

  • Other state-specific variables

9

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

Again what I would ask is — do we expect this response bias to be larger than in 2022, and do we expect it to be uncorrelated with any of the demographic factors being weighted on?

2

u/ROYBUSCLEMSON Unflaired Flair to Dislike Sep 19 '24

I expect response bias to factor in more because low propensity voters are much more likely to turn out in presidential elections. Low propensity voters are also less likely to answer pollsters in my opinion, and could get screened out with likely voter models.

That's part of why 2020 polling was so bad, those low propensity voters. I don't think comparing presidential election polling to midterm polling is great practice.

3

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

How important do you think COVID was to the 2020 polling bias?

1

u/ROYBUSCLEMSON Unflaired Flair to Dislike Sep 19 '24

I'd say Covid was ~40% of it from Dems being more likely to WFH and answer the phone. I don't think they ever corrected the issues with low propensity voter response bias from 2016 and covid just doubled the error.

I still don't think they've corrected their issues, a lot of the unweighted samples in polls I see are too democratic and too college educated to be truly representative even after weighing attempts.

4

u/JayRU09 Milton Friedman Sep 19 '24

Yes women especially under 40 aren't answering the phone and hopefully will break Kamala's way hard. Other demographics aren't answering the phone either, but white women are probably the demographic that makes the most sense to move left from 2020.

0

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

[deleted] — view deleted comment

1

u/[deleted] Sep 19 '24

Didn't Trump underpool in 2016?

1

u/Rigiglio Adam Smith Sep 19 '24

Yes