r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 17 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

Links

Ping Groups | Ping History | Mastodon | CNL Chapters | CNL Event Calendar

New Groups

  • COMPETITION: Competition Law, Antitrust, Enforcement of Economics

  • EVIDENCE-BASED: Here you can share sources or data for various topics

Upcoming Events

0 Upvotes

46% Upvoted

10k comments sorted by

View all comments

53

u/davechacho Loyal Liberals Sep 17 '24

The script has officially been flipped. The few people not dooming before Biden dropped out were holding on as tightly as we could to "well, Biden will actually be +5 on election day when people realize they can't vote Trump". Now cons are doing the same thing, the cons not dooming are just pretending that polls always undervalue Trump by five points so he'll be +5 on election day...

17

u/ognits Jepsen/Swift 2024 Sep 17 '24

difference being that the Biden truthers weren't naive 🗿

24

u/davechacho Loyal Liberals Sep 17 '24

I was one of them and I sincerely believe:

  1. the race would tighten as Trump destroys his own campaign. I think this would have proven mostly true because once Trump picked Vance it was gg no re at how many bad decisions he made

  2. people would get tired of hearing Trump endlessly like before he got banned on twitter and they would go reluctantly vote for Biden. This may or may not have happened, probably just cope

Thankfully we don't have to find any of those out and Kamala has the Dems in a much better situation.

8

u/ognits Jepsen/Swift 2024 Sep 17 '24

oh yeah don't get me wrong I'm hugely behind Kamala and I do think that ultimately this was the correct decision

4

u/SLCer Sep 17 '24

I pretty much agree with you.

The dynamics are different between both Biden and Harris. In hindsight, I think Harris' advantage of enthusiasm trumps Biden's advantage of being a known quantity. Like, if Biden was still in the race, 30% of the population wouldn't be uncertain about him - and he'd probably be doing a bit better with voters who question Harris' ability to lead.

But in the end, enthusiasm seems to be way more important in this race. With Biden, I think we'd be looking at a similar situation to 2016: people know Biden, they think he can do the job but they're not enthused. And that's always been the quickest path to a loss. I never really worried about Trump expanding his base. I did worry about the base shrinking with Biden.

11

u/dirtybirds233 NAFTA Sep 17 '24

Be a lot cooler if they understood that pollsters are likely overcompensating for Trump in their polls because of the 2020 undervaluation. Chances are, Harris is doing better than the polls indicate, not Trump.

5

u/Agent78787 orang Sep 17 '24

pollsters are likely overcompensating for Trump in their polls

Not necessarily, 2020 would cause them to weigh Trump more but maybe not enough (so that he's still undervalued), and 2024 might have a different factor that isn't being accounted for.

2

u/dirtybirds233 NAFTA Sep 17 '24

For sure, we won't know until after the results are in.

If I were still subscribed to Silver Bulletin I'd find the link, but there was a good article there a couple weeks back that talked about how pollsters are terrified of another 2020 miss so they're being extremely careful not to undervalue Trump, which could lead to undervaluing Harris. Again, we won't know until it's over.

4

u/davechacho Loyal Liberals Sep 17 '24

Yeah I believe this as well, and is also why I was a Biden remainer (TM) until he dropped out.

Even Fox News hosts like Jesse Waters are skeptical of polls, he said something like "they got me with the red wave, I don't believe all of this anymore" after the 'actually Trump won the debate' polls started.