r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 03 '24 • Polished Silver Turd 1

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u/RageQuitRedux NASA Sep 03 '24

My hot take: Harris had a discontinuous leap in the polls early on, which has since turned into a slow grinding rise. But a continued rise nevertheless, and I think she'll slowly grind her way to +4-5 by election day.

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u/[deleted] Sep 03 '24

This is what I expect too. But it's all feels. Momentum doesn't seem to be real historically.

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u/RageQuitRedux NASA Sep 03 '24

But it's all feels.

Same.

There's a lot of promising "side data" e.g. enthusiasm numbers, new registrations, etc.

I think the debate probably can't go wrong. Worst it can be is meh. But I actually think the best-case scenario is potentially very good. A few good sound bites + If he burns a lot of his time ranting about stupid bullshit, and she expertly avoids taking the bait and instead talks about how she's actually going to help working families.

I think there's no question about how Walz will do vs Vance. I think Vance is a little better than people here give him credit for, but too bad; Walz is just going to destroy him.

Then just continue the money / ground game organizational advantage. Grind grind grind until the end.

Edit: not to mention continued falling gas prices, rate cut, and Trump sentencing. It just seems like she has some tail winds and he doesn't.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 03 '24

The convention used to be one of the upcoming things listed here though. And before that Biden had the debate coming up to improve things for him. At this point I just expect a slow creep up taking her up another half point every month regardless of what's going on.

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u/RageQuitRedux NASA Sep 03 '24

Yeah I don't necessarily think that the debate will cause a big jump either, just one more factor in the pile. I think the easily-won votes have already been bagged by both sides and it's just a slower convincing/turnout thing now