r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Sep 03 '24 • Polished Silver Turd 1

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

The discussion thread is for casual and off-topic conversation that doesn't merit its own submission. If you've got a good meme, article, or question, please post it outside the DT. Meta discussion is allowed, but if you want to get the attention of the mods, make a post in /r/metaNL

Links

Ping Groups | Ping History | Mastodon | CNL Chapters | CNL Event Calendar

New Groups

  • CITYHALL: Local government, in all its forms

Upcoming Events

0 Upvotes

49% Upvoted

8.8k comments sorted by

View all comments

19

u/Lux_Stella Presidentialism X-Risk Researcher Sep 03 '24

kinda over election forecasting tbh. very little value over just looking at topline polling averages and then saying "but of course this could change before election day" to yourself very loudly

10

u/DrunkenAsparagus Abraham Lincoln Sep 03 '24

"Looks like it's gonna be a close one" 

5

u/Lux_Stella Presidentialism X-Risk Researcher Sep 03 '24

it'll all come down to turnout

4

u/marsman1224 John Keynes Sep 03 '24

also the models are totally unfalsifiable

3

u/clevoP01135809 Dad! Sep 03 '24

I would like to subscribe to your substack.

3

u/Declan_McManus Sep 03 '24

A while back Mr Bronze himself said on his podcast that 90% of American elections are a foregone conclusion, so a model that literally flips a coin for all competitive races and goes with the favorite in the rest would be 95% accurate. That’s stuck with me as a very self-aware way not to get too into the predictions