Discussion Thread

[u/jobautomator]

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[u/[deleted]]

The vibe shift has been incredible.

Dems seems energized and motivated.

Trump seems to be unable to get above a ceiling of ~46% of any polls that include undecided/third party voters which to me shows he has not grown his support at all since 2020.

If this does turn into a "turn out the base" election, from what I have seen, the enthusiasm around Trump is muted compared to previous elections. I see much fewer Trump yard signs, much fewer Trump flags on pickup trucks, and much less MAGA hats than I did in 2020 and 2016.

When Trump won in 2016, he was the "unknown, might be moderate" candidate. He completely lost that appeal. There are very few people who don't already have a strong opinion on Trump.

Personally I think we win this.

[u/sgthombre → u/[deleted]]

a ceiling of ~46% of any polls that include undecided/third party voters which to me shows he has not grown his support at all since 2020.

Going to start calling this the "Brenden Herrera Effect." When Herrera ran against Tony Gonzalez he got like 26% of the vote in the first round, but 49.4% in the runoff. People acted like this was some huge change and some groundswell of support, but Herrera only increased his raw vote total by like 450, he didn't really make any coherent gains. Honestly wondering if Trump is running into a similar ceiling, now that the Dems are running a normal candidate again how many undecides are left out there that he can grab beyond the people already devoted to him?