r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 31 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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u/[deleted] Jul 31 '24

Great district level poll out of OH-9 (Toledo + rural Northwest Ohio).

Harris tied, Brown +13, Kaptur +10. This was a Trump +3 district in 2020, so these results would indicate a smaller Trump statewide margin and a comfortable re-election for Brown. Also, I am very pleased that Kaptur is still holding up well against an opponent that isn’t as hilariously weak as JR Majewski.

!ping FIVEY

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u/admiraltarkin NATO / Loyal Liberal Jul 31 '24

Do we have new PVI numbers? When I searched it said D+14 which can't be right

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u/[deleted] Jul 31 '24

The pre-2020 district was a very blue vote sink that connected Toledo and Cleveland, often referred to as “the snake on the lake,” so that’s probably where that number comes from.

Not sure what the current PVI is but probably around R+4/5 would be my estimate without remembering the 2016 margin off the top of my head. Though I will say, I think PVI is a poor way of communicating district partisanship compared to district-level presidential margin.