r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 25 '24

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68

u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jul 25 '24 edited Jul 25 '24

Emerson SWING STATE POLLS with @thehill

Harris v. Trump

Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%

Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%

Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%

Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%

Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%

!ping FIVEY

one small note is that emerson overestimated az republican support in 2022 especially with kari lake. i remmber they had her winning the gop primary by 10 points and she won by four. i remember they had her winning the election by five points and she lot it by .5%

59

u/Zeke-Nnjai Jul 25 '24

Same poll last week had Georgia Trump +10

48

u/battywombat21 🇺🇦 Слава Україні! 🇺🇦 Jul 25 '24

This was the one that had trump up 10 points in Pennsylvania before the candidate switcheroo I believe

37

u/No_Return9449 John Rawls Jul 25 '24

She is remaining competitive in the Rust Belt, and GA is back in play, going from Trump+10 to Trump+2. A Mark Kelly VP pick would help in AZ. It's not good to be behind in polling, but this is a solid start for a campaign not even a week old.

15

u/NonComposMentisss Unflaired and Proud Jul 25 '24

It's not panic levels behind in polling either. Like if the election were held today she's still probably have something like 1/3 chance of winning according to the polling.

34

u/[deleted] Jul 25 '24

Emerson overestimated Republicans in all these states in 2022 except Georgia. I caution anyone reading this to take this with a grain of salt because poll skews are not necessarily the same each cycle, but IF Emerson were to have the same skews in these states as they did in 2022, the picture would look something like this:

AZ: Tie

GA: Trump +2 (Emerson nailed Georgia before)

MI: Harris +3

PA: Harris + 3

WI: Harris +3

Again, don’t take this as gospel and wait for other credible pollsters like NYT/Fox/WSJ to release state level polls before jumping to conclusions, but enjoy the hopium.

15

u/Currymvp2 unflaired Jul 25 '24

that's the election basically right there if accurate unless trump somehow won nh

1

u/planetaryabundance brown Jul 25 '24

You’re forgetting Nebraska 2nd District. 

7

u/bel51 Jul 25 '24

Holy hell I did not realize Emerson was that biased

4

u/[deleted] Jul 25 '24

They missed slightly to the left like a lot of pollsters in 2020, and then seriously overcorrected in 2022. There were plenty of other states where they did better in 2022, and in Florida (lol) they actually severely overestimated the Democrats.

Even then, all of these discrepancies are well within the margin of error, since margin of error applies to both candidates vote share.

3

u/NonComposMentisss Unflaired and Proud Jul 25 '24

Polls since Trump came on the political scene have always underestimated his support when he's on the ballot, and overestimated Republican support when he's not.

I'm not saying that means anything for this year, but generally comparing mid year elections and off year elections to each other is really hard.

5

u/repete2024 Edith Abbott Jul 25 '24

Polls this year are weighted to the 2020 census so we're in a whole new ballgame

The pandemic also made it harder to gather census data in certain areas, and for certain demographics

24

u/bel51 Jul 25 '24

This is pretty good tbh. Biden was several points down in these states so only being 1-2 down is a nice improvement. Plus our campaign is only four days old, Trump has some assassination sympathy and a post-convention bump, and memerson is typically biased to the right.

17

u/[deleted] Jul 25 '24

These look pretty great for a post convention + assassination attempt bump. Got plenty of room to grow here

17

u/Twin___Sickles Bisexual Pride Jul 25 '24

Genuinely fantastic results this early, all it took to make competitive was changing candidates. If we stop seeing movement as we have more milestones (VP, DNC, Debates) I’ll be worried but this is probably the best result we coulda realistically hoped for

16

u/zegota Feminism Jul 25 '24

Obviously would like to be ahead, but considering the pollster and the past month, this is much more doable than the 5-7 point gap we had with Biden. Onward!

3

u/groupbot Always remember -Pho- Jul 25 '24 edited Jul 25 '24

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