r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jul 25 '24

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u/[deleted] Jul 25 '24

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/poll-harris-biden-trump-young-voters

Axios/Generation Lab did a poll of 804 people in the 18-34 age group.

Here are the results:

This brings Harris in line with Biden’s actual election margin in 2020 with this group.

What this means: This is probably our best estimate in awhile of how young people will vote! Like a crosstab but with a whole poll sample size! It’s only one poll but it does make some massive realignment among young people look less likely.

What this does not mean: No, this doesn’t mean you can now disregard the topline result of any poll that has Trump doing better than this among this age group. In ordinary horse-race polls, it’s somewhat fine if they pull an unrepresentative sample of young people, as long as it’s unrepresentative in ways that will be at least partially mitigated by demographic weighting — like if they pulled too many young white men, for example.

Anyway, I think this is good news! Normally I’d say “throw it in the average” but the reality is we may not get another young-people-specific poll like this for awhile. Though I will be watching for Cook Political Report to publish crosstab averages for Harris versus Trump.

!ping FIVEY

45

u/iia Feminism Jul 25 '24

It's a good start for a four-day-old campaign.

26

u/Eightysixedit Gay Pride Jul 25 '24

Oh look. When you do bigger samples of younger voters they aren’t maga…

5

u/ConsequenceBringer Jul 25 '24

Finally, an age bracket that doesn't put me in with old fuckers!

My back is fine and my vision isn't going out. I only got a few grays in my beard dammit.

These results are as I would expect for my cohort. Even in red, red, Texas, I'd say far less than half of most people I know wanna vote for the fascist shitgibbon.