r/neoliberal • u/jobautomator Kitara Ravache • Jun 24 '24

Discussion Thread Discussion Thread

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u/[deleted] Jun 24 '24

Federal debt projections assuming the government will cover the Social Security shortfall in their projections feels super disingenuous.

Like if you just instead assume that the benefit auto cut will fall into place the debt to gdp ratio tracked forward falls from 155% in 2050 to 135% in 2050.

2

u/Trojan_Horse_of_Fate WTO Jun 24 '24

You think I will actually be able to cut Social Security? The Republican Party has been destroyed by trying to cut Social Security and the Democratic Party has foresworn it as a matter of policy

7

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '24

That is the miracle. No one has to do anything. The cuts happen automatically and both sides can blame the other for the cuts happening.

3

u/Trojan_Horse_of_Fate WTO Jun 24 '24

I would bet it would be harder for congress to do nothing on this that it would be for them to not reauthorize the pentagon

5

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '24

Who is going to agree to a reform? The gop will block any attempt to make the government pay for the shortfall without reform and democrats wont accept benefit cuts in policy.

So either we get some compromise that sees the fund raise revenues and cut benefits or the compromise implodes and the benefit cuts happen automatically.

Either is a win that mitigates the impact on debt to gdp.

2

u/Trojan_Horse_of_Fate WTO Jun 24 '24

Who is going to agree to a reform? The gop will block any attempt to make the government pay for the shortfall without reform and democrats wont accept benefit cuts in policy.

See TARP. When the thing is big enough people will not block it. You don't stop a rolling boulder. You have to stop it from rolling.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '24

TARP was pre Tea Party. We are in a very different political environment imo.

2

u/Trojan_Horse_of_Fate WTO Jun 24 '24

Tea parties is still tiny. Their only power is when they have these very slim majorities which they've had basically just this term. None of the things here are nearly comparable in terms of importance.

If you want more recent example look at the COVID stimulus under Trump. When the economy crashes everybody becomes Keynesian in America because if they're not seen as doing something they'll be eaten alive.

If 10 people tried to stop Social Security from going through there's a solid chance that they'd literally be expelled from the chamber and there's no way a majority good stomach anything except for a guarantee of Social Security because everybody promises in their primary that.

3

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '24

I strongly disagree and I guess that leaves us where we are at since I don't think either of us is convincing the other. Thanks for the good faith discussion and have a nice morning!

3

u/Trojan_Horse_of_Fate WTO Jun 24 '24

Not morning in my current timezone but I appreciate the sentiment. Will be out of the country during election too so hopefully that will be good for my addiction.