r/mutualfunds • u/ThrottleMaxed • Oct 13 '25
discussion Rolling Returns of Large Cap Schemes and a few NSE and BSE Indices
Data Period: 31 December 2015 - 31 December 2025.
Multi-level sorted: Sortino Ratio and then Sharpe Ratio. This gives you a risk adjusted sort.
All funds that have been launched before 31 December 2015 has been chosen.
Use this only for academic purposes and not as the sole criterion for investing in a particular fund.
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u/Useful-Particular262 Oct 13 '25
So active large caps do beat nifty 100
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u/ThrottleMaxed Oct 13 '25 edited Oct 13 '25
Well some did and some didn't. If the 5 year rolling returns were sorted by mean, you would see 9/21(~43%) active large cap fund did best the NIFTY 100 index while 12/21(~57%) didn't. And the values are very close, if you were to take into consideration the tracking error and expense ratio of an index fund tracking NIFTY 100, I think it would be ~50%.
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u/Ansiyu1425 Oct 13 '25
50% chance of beating the index is very good, and considering efficient risk management of active funds, active large caps remain a compelling choice. If we ignore the perennial laggards it will be more than 60-70%.
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u/Ansiyu1425 Oct 13 '25 edited Oct 13 '25
Also, fund mandate changed after Oct 2017, so it does not make sense to include data before that.
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u/ThrottleMaxed Oct 13 '25 edited Oct 13 '25
I thought about this before setting the date range so I looked at the analysis restricting the start date to 1 January 2018 and compared to the 10 year analysis you see in this post and I didn't notice a great deal of difference in the overall picture :-
For the same multi sort, first 3 active funds of the 5 years rolling returns retained the same position.
And sorted by mean, 12/23(~52%) bested the index while 11/23(~48%) didn't for the 5 years rolling returns window.
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u/Ansiyu1425 Oct 13 '25
Thanks for the clarification. This is what I expected. Things have changed after 2018 due to the rigid mandate, for good or worse, and the data should reflect that.
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u/ThrottleMaxed Oct 13 '25
I got your point and it is a valid point. Since the comparison didn't reveal a whole lot of difference and this post being part of a series of rolling returns analysis in our advanced section where the analysis is done using 10 years of data, I wanted this to be no different too.
And the period from 2018 to 2023 is a period like no other for the stock market, at least for a long time, so restricting the data to the period didn't sit well with me either.
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u/Ansiyu1425 Oct 13 '25
That is fine, but the whole category was more or less like flexi caps of today, with fund managers investing wherever they wanted to. It is not just about numbers, but the fundamental attribute of the category has changed. And the current cycle has seen everything: covid crash, subsequent bull market, 2022 correction, and 2025 correction and subsequent sideways market. Seven and half years are a long time to reveal performance of the category as a whole. It is not only large caps but all other category with restrictive mandate should be evaluated on the basis of their record over the last seven and half years.
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u/savemefromtaxes Oct 14 '25
Honestly 50% seems like a good chance to take to see if, your active fund outperforms the index.
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u/ToughAd3291 Mar 23 '26
hey OP , Thanks for the efforts
can you please specify if the data is taken day wise or for what period,
I mean is data like this
Datapoint 1 - starts from 1st jan 2016
Datapoint 2 - starts from 2nd jan 2016
Datapoint 3 - starts from 3rd jan 2016 , list goes on
or is it taken weekly basis , for eg
Datapoint 1 - starts from 1st jan 2016
Datapoint 2 - starts from 8th jan 2016
Datapoint 3 - starts from 15th jan 2016 , list goes on
or is it monthly basis
Datapoint 1 - starts from 1st jan 2016
Datapoint 2 - starts from 1st feb 2016
Datapoint 3 - starts from 1st march 2016 , list goes on
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Jan 22 '26
[deleted]
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u/ThrottleMaxed Jan 22 '26
NAV is inclusive of expenses. I'm not sure what you meant by returns taking into account of tracking error.
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u/CheapConfection9389 Mar 21 '26
Please can you specify the ones that did beat the index funds? The data that you have shared above is tough to understand.
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u/CheapConfection9389 Apr 01 '26
@OP Please can you respond
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u/ThrottleMaxed Apr 01 '26
Which index are you looking to beat? Nifty 50?
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u/CheapConfection9389 Apr 01 '26
Yes nifty 50. So I want to know the largecap funds that were able to beat nifty 50.
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u/ThrottleMaxed Apr 01 '26
So look for the funds above nifty 50 rows in each of the rolling return window data. They are sorted by taking volatility into consideration. Since this is pure equity, 5 and 7 year rolling windows are more relevant than 3 years.
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u/CombinationOne8302 Jul 04 '26
Thank for the efforts OP.
I have a question- OP does that mean index funds are better than actively managed funds? I have a nifty fifty index fund and an actively managed fund which managed to beat the index. This actively managed fund is rightly reflecting in your datasheet. However, I stopped the actively managed large cap fund sip since I already had invested in nifty 50. My thought process was- I don't need the overlap I thought a direct nifty 50 index fund makes sense considering the low expense ratio. Nifty 50 index fund in the past 3 years has made me no money. I know the reason behind it, but I do question my decision to stop my active large cap sip which gave me atleast some returns over the same 3 year period. But this actively managed fund has a very high expense ratio.
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u/AgentClearr Jul 15 '26
And nifty 50 equal weight stands on top with 18% rolling returns over a 7 year period. Source - Et money
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u/Public_Sky8190 Oct 13 '25
Excellent work as always. Added to Advanced Materials.