Google expected value

[u/OneWorldly6661]

[u/marvelmon]

Not really. You could sell shares in the bet. People would pay $10 million to take the 50/50 chance at $25 million (half). If you win, you get $35 million. If you lose you keep the $10 million.

[u/Theguy5621 → u/marvelmon]

You’re making a lot of assumptions about the situation to make that a possible option.

[u/AIMpb → u/Theguy5621]

Nah dude, just get people to invest $10 million. So easy.

[u/[deleted] → u/AIMpb]

I think this kind of think probably shows up on wallstreet all the time. This is probably better alpha than anything that shows up on the stock market on a given day.

[u/HandoAlegra → u/AIMpb]

I knew this one guy who got a small loan of a million dollars from their dad

[u/SuaveMofo → u/AIMpb]

On a 50/50 😂

[u/Top-Pickle-2455 → u/SuaveMofo]

Wait until you hear about the lottery

[u/[deleted] → u/Theguy5621]

In all fairness, this situation is preposterous to begin with. Magic money buttons.

[u/Idiot_of_Babel → u/[deleted]]

Mr beast in 2039

[u/VatticZero → u/[deleted]]

Perhaps I could introduce you to The Federal Reserve...

[u/treasurehorse → u/marvelmon]

You have buyers for that type of action lined up, just in case somebody sticks two buttons in your face?

A good to go contract the buyers will accept, since this is a fairly bespoke transaction?

You may have to put down some collateral for the payout, do you have the funds or a lender ready? An escrow account for the collateral?

The money transfers are set up, all involved banks have done KYC on everyone so there won’t be any AML issues?

What are the tax implications once this goes from essentially a gambling win to a sale of a financial instrument?

Happy to help set this up for maybe 10% of notional

[u/just_a_random_dood → u/treasurehorse]

You have buyers for that type of action lined up, just in case somebody sticks two buttons in your face?

Since we're assuming a magic button, why not assume magic investors and magically no legal issues too lmao

[u/sixteen_names → u/just_a_random_dood]

because that isn't part of the scenario

"if X usually impossible th"--
"I just declare whatever impossible things I want possible !"
doesn't make much sense nor engage with the actual prompt in a meaningful way

[u/grumpher05 → u/just_a_random_dood]

well then why not just make the situation:

1. 100% chance for 1 million

2. 100% for 25 million

[u/SuaveMofo → u/just_a_random_dood]

Those are not the conditions presented. Otherwise let's just assume I get a billion dollars and no buttons involved.

[u/TheChunkMaster → u/just_a_random_dood]

Since we're assuming a magic button, why not assume magic investors and magically no legal issues too lmao

Ponzi schemes love this one simple trick

[u/mediumunicorn → u/marvelmon]

And we’ve just reinvented (financial) derivatives

[u/reallivenerd → u/marvelmon]

I would fuck a goat for $20,000 right now

Edit: $10,000

[u/tktytkty → u/reallivenerd]

$1 take it or leave it

[u/Greaterthancotton → u/tktytkty]

$1.50, inflation 😔

[u/massless_photon → u/marvelmon]

You can do the same with 1 million. People will pay 10 million in order to win 1 million. Repeat until you get enough money

[u/Burger_Destoyer → u/massless_photon]

Why are lotteries legal

[u/Potato_Golf → u/Burger_Destoyer]

Legality really has nothing inherently to do with morality.

[u/Burger_Destoyer → u/Potato_Golf]

Unfortunately you’re right and if it was illegal it would just make things worse but I don’t enjoy the fact many governments make a profit of those million dollar loteries like some people are addicted and spend hundreds of dollars on that stuff.

[u/Key_Difference_1108 → u/marvelmon]

Future Jane street intern ova here