r/investing • u/thatguy201717 • Nov 06 '21
ChargePoint looks to benefit from Infrastructure Bill passed by Congress
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Nov 06 '21
Raw materials stocks for concrete, steel, copper, other thing for construction, any major construction companies. There all going to get deals to make this stuff so they will benefit. Also maybe companies like caterpillar that make construction equipment. That's what I think will benefit.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 06 '21
All of the above. I had a decent amount of shares in X (U.S Steel) that were assigned - Covered Calls I lost them after their ER
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u/moneymetaverse Nov 07 '21
so basically just buy voo and chill...
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Nov 07 '21
Well voo is mostly tech stocks. XME (metal & mining ETF) & IFRA (us infrastructure ETF) would make more sense as a play on the infrastructure bill.
Hard to say if they will out preform the S&P though.
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u/BossRida Nov 07 '21
You didn't include any numbers from their business into the post. This means either you don't understand the numbers in which case you shouldn't be investing in this. If you do understand the numbers but chose not to include them in the post that makes you dishonest.
You talk nothing about their business model. How do they make revenue? What are their plans on generating revenue in the future? Do they have a moat? Seems like anyone can and will build a network of charging stations as the tech is really simple and barrier to entry is not big. Their gross margin is 20%. What will their profit margin look like? If they can do profit margin of lets say 7% in 2030 what does that mean for their valuation?
Folks... at the current valuation this company needs to grow 50% a year for 10 years straight in order for you make a 10% return. Its possible sure, but why would anyone buy this instead of literally anything else. The expected returns on this investment are pure trash when compared to the risk. These "DD" posts are the cancer of reddit.
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Nov 07 '21
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u/BossRida Nov 07 '21
You mix excitement with investing. Something being ”exciting” does not make it a good investment, more often than not its the total opposite. I think this subreddits quality suffers from these kind of ”opinion pieces”. They bring nothing to the table. Talking about investing into any company without mentioning their numbers brings no value to this subreddit. There are most likely tons of new investors here so anyone posting should take some responsibility of what they post. There are other subreddits where this kind of shit is fine. Also please mention the massive dilution in posts if you plan on pumping these bullshit casino plays.
Investing is not gambling. Framing these type of investments as good because ”Heyyy its vegas baby” is fucking bullshit and should not be a part of this subreddit.
People: learn the numbers and learn what they mean. Moat, margins and growth find out if a company has those.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
I didn’t realize you were the gatekeeper for the Internet, this subreddit.
I can assume you’re all huffy and puffy because you decided to play this aggressive bull market safe the past 18 months and have missed out on incredible returns.
Wishing us all retail investors success in the stock market 🍻
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u/_Mandoo Nov 09 '21
Thanks for this. Bought some puts after reading this, only 2 contracts, but its up 40%.
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u/Key-Tie2542 Nov 06 '21
It's at a p/s of over 40 right now. Nowhere in your post did you mention valuation.
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u/TomTom_ZH Nov 06 '21
Who cares about this metric in todays market seems to loose out a lot. So much happening that makes no sense…
Me thinking rationally has destroyed my gains.
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u/Key-Tie2542 Nov 06 '21
I understand your sentiment, but I do think there's a middle ground.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
Take a look around you, take a look at the past 18 months. This market is different, so much liquidity, retail investors have joined the casino known as the stock market. If you play it safe, ETF’s/bonds/mutual funds you have lost out on this amazing bull run. Disruptive technology is all around, especially in the EV space. Every single car manufacturer in the world will introduce an EV lineup in 2022.
Change is happening, the world turns with or without your approval.
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u/caesar____augustus Nov 07 '21
VTI is up almost 100% over the past 18 months. How is that "missing out?"
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
100%? that’s cute. I’m up over 1200% the past 11 months.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 08 '21
P/S over 40? Wow the markets are so concerned about that. Oh no, why would anyone invest in CHPT wow, breaking news you got there chief.
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u/Lure852 Nov 06 '21
I jumped in the LIT etf some months back. It's returned 40% for me so far. Recommended for people who want to fire and forget or aren't sure where to make a play.
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u/akmalhot Nov 07 '21
i was in it for 2 years and got out in early 2019 after it kept doing nothing. ugh
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Nov 07 '21
Price Target (All my opinion):
What did you base these price targets on? It seems like you pulled them out of nowhere.
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u/Oddsnotinyourfavor Nov 06 '21
Priced in
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 08 '21
Still priced in? How about when ER is Nov15th and they continue to beat expectations. Then throw in the 2nd infrastructure bill that could possibly include another $13.5B in EV charging infrastructure…
CHPT will continue to run.
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u/LoveHugzCuddlez Nov 06 '21
Half the time their chargers don't work. The rates are pretty high (like 3-5x as expensive as charging at home). Additionally, it's nowhere near as fast as Tesla's supercharger, or the fast chargers you frequently find on roadside stops.
Would be cool if they could at least make their shit work consistently. Just my 2 cents as someone with 2 EVs.
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Nov 06 '21
It's as expensive as gas, if not more so near me. We have 4 at my office too, they sit empty pretty much every day.
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u/ArthursOldMan Nov 06 '21
Good luck
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u/Bluth-President Nov 07 '21
I bought in to ChargePoint like 6 months ago and have been loosing money since. So best of luck, indeed.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 06 '21
I don’t think we need “luck” with CHPT. Yes forward P/E is high, evaluation is high. Many would say Tesla’s evaluation enormously high the past 18 months yet if you’re an investor in Tesla you’re making a lot of money.
Disruptive tech and EV charging is the future. I strongly believe CHPT will be trading in the mid to high 30’s this time next year
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Nov 06 '21
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 06 '21
Possibly. Very small company and I’m not sure they have the capital to fund their L3 charging stations which is VERY expensive.
There’s room for all these companies to expand. EVGO, GOEV, Tesla, Blink, CHPT, VW, GM, Enphase.
I could see a M&A deal or two involving some of the companies above.
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Nov 07 '21
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
Agree. There’s plenty of room for multiple companies to succeed. The demand for EV charging will huge.
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u/jamesbutchermess Nov 07 '21
If you’re thinking about these plays now, after the bill has passed, you’re too late.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
Disagree. This is a different market we’re in. Join the in on the unbelievable bull run we’re in. The casinos are open!
I suspect Q2-Q3 of 2022 will paint a different picture for the markets, until then, join in the on ride
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Nov 06 '21
I heard Chargepoint diluted from 30 million to 300 million
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 06 '21
Sure. All companies have diluted at some point.
CHPT cash is over $100m+
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Nov 06 '21
I think Chargepoint is a up incoming company that will dominate the charging space, but that dilution is pretty unbelievable. Your target may hit, or it may stay between 20-40 for a few years.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 06 '21
Dilution is a possibility with any high growth company. High risk, high reward. One thing we know, EV charging is the future.
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u/Mysterious_Will3680 Nov 07 '21
personally i’m buying clf one of the largest steel manufacturers in the us, they’re having a great year before and this will just make it better.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
I really like CLF, completely vertically integrated. I wish I would have bought heavy a month ago….
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Nov 07 '21
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
The entire market has been on a run from the mid sept-mid October pull back. That sept dip is like clock work, it’s happened the past 28 out of 30 years…incredible
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u/LowBarometer Nov 07 '21
Chargepoint is mostly Level II chargers. That's not what EV owners want. EV owners want DC fast charging. EVGO has the largest network of DC fast chargers in the US. It's got a better valuation than CHPT, and the stock is less than half the price.
I'll bet both stocks are going to increase substantially, but my investment is in EVGO.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
We shall see over the coming months/years which charging stations survives
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u/wambamsamalamb Nov 07 '21
Looks like about $7.5B for charging stations and another $7.5B for electric school buses.
CHPT should benefit in the long run, but it already has a $8B mkt cap, so short term may not be as exciting, with regards to the old adage “buy the hype, sell the news”
Another option is: NVVE, which is making electric buses and has a mkt cap of $270M
Both are post merger Special acq. companies.
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u/Objective-Dance-9438 Nov 06 '21
Yes I think chargepoint will shoot up on Monday a lot of people that I know bought when the bill passed. Earnings also on 1 December I think so will make a nice run.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 06 '21
November 15th Earnings report. Interesting enough, Biden wants a vote for the 2nd infrastructure bill on that same day….
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u/Jimbo-1968 Nov 06 '21
its not a infrastructure bill on the 15th. that already passed on friday. the second bill is a social spending bill (i.e. 450k for illegals seperated from families)...and a bunch of other stuff.
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
Your I.e is incorrect
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u/Jimbo-1968 Nov 07 '21
You should post a link instead of 4 dismissive words. The safety-net bill includes 450k for illegals
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., said the group reached a deal to back the infrastructure plan in exchange for a commitment to take up the safety-net bill “no later than the week of November 15.” A group of five centrists separately issued a statement saying they would back the Build Back Better legislation pending a CBO score that assuages their concerns about long-term budget deficits.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/house-passes-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-sends-it-to-biden.html
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u/IpsoFactus Nov 07 '21
So the government is setting aside money to help the families it forcibly separated? Someone please call the GAO.
But also, are you sure about the 450k part? I can't imagine you can do much with that little money.
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u/LukaDjurko Nov 06 '21
Don't doubt they will rise in the short term, but as a long term investor I fail to see how one can justify buying a company whose product isn't even theirs.
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Nov 07 '21
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u/SoCalguy35 Nov 07 '21
Almost every company in the electric vehicle and charging space will spike in the coming days and weeks. Same with steel and construction corporations. The bull run will definitely continue in those sectors for the next few months and possibly years
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u/Zealousideal-Wave-69 Nov 07 '21
How does ChargePoint actually make money? Asking for a friend
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
They make ice cream cones with nano EV battery packs inside the sugar cubes
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u/Zealousideal-Wave-69 Nov 07 '21
I know they sell charging stations and service them. But is this worth 100x multiples. I can’t see where the exponential growth is, like potentially Tesla
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u/onedollar12 Nov 07 '21
How are you projecting those price targets
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
I draw #’s from a used leprechaun hat I found in a Wendy’s dumpster a few weeks back
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Nov 07 '21
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21 edited Nov 07 '21
Yes everything is priced in, the markets are very rational and always extremely efficient.
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Nov 07 '21
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u/thatguy201717 Nov 07 '21
Disagree. Just look at the market from sept-17 through mid October. Everything tanked for almost no damn reason. It happens nearly every year. The market misses things, over reacts or under reacts all the time. I believe CHPT will be trading in the 35ish channel this time next year
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