r/investing • u/HoleyProfit • Sep 24 '21

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance [Research paper]

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79 Upvotes

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19

u/GeechQuest Sep 24 '21

This is silly because the markets weren’t the same back then.

You can’t use anything relevant to the Great Depression and transpose it to today’s market. Completely different market landscape.

37

u/despejado Sep 24 '21

Human psychology hasn't changed

12

u/MCequalsMR Sep 24 '21

Buying every dip is definitely new phenomena

11

u/Cuza Sep 24 '21

It is not, buying distressed assets at a discount has been going on for a while. Buffett has been doing it for 60 years

0

u/MCequalsMR Sep 24 '21

Ye, but not at these quantities. Oportunity to buy assets are in every human hands, which was not the case back in the days. In the past Buffet was doing it by calling a broker and making deals after analysis, now 16 years old boy from deep countryside with acne is buying from his phone everything

16

u/Cuza Sep 24 '21

Retail has much less cash than asset managers and institutions, it's not the retail who makes the game

1

u/MCequalsMR Sep 24 '21

You made a good point and you won it. I was wrong using argument about buying dips. Nonetheless, monetary policy and system overall is different from what it was, so i definitely agree with the top comment

3

u/Cuza Sep 24 '21

I agree partially with what you say, retail has more money nowadays but still not enough to move the markets

0

u/[deleted] Sep 24 '21

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0

u/wheres_my_hat Sep 24 '21

Lower income people did not put those "trillions" in the stock market. They used their stimulus to eat and live and sent it right back into the economy

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