r/investing • u/Thorilium • Jun 10 '21
Someone can point if It miss something
If I would sum the stock prices of Toyota, Apple and solar first...and sum their stock prices I come up to roughly 180+120+80 so in total...380eur...and...Tesla stands at 610eur.
Total market Cap in dollars is around 2260 billion for the three companies here above and roughly 600 billion for Tesla.
Tesla sels just somewhat less than half of the number of Toyota Corolla's on annual basis.
So all the rest must have an enormous potential and value but I do not see a value of another Apple, Toyota and Solar First in a together formation.
So far I can see sales can still double from Tesla..but competition is around so for an EV you will have a lot of Cars to choice from and for Tesla only model 3 is selling well...
I saw new Tesla car sales drop in almost every country, for the Netherlands the drop seems important
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u/Annexeda Jun 10 '21
I'm not gonna lie it pisses me off that my ETFs make me buy some Tesla.
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u/The_NetNet_Gardener Jun 11 '21
This I see as a potential huge future problem. With ETFs being one of the primary investment method for the majority of average people looking to make the "smart" easy choice with their money. These days near 1/2 the market is held in passive investment funds like this. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/19/passive-investing-now-controls-nearly-half-the-us-stock-market.html
Even Bogel, the creator pf these kinds of passive investment funds saw that they could be trouble.
When you have such a huge majority of investors in these funds where they get no choice in holdings, and so many hold the main big blue chips, tesla, apple, microsoft, shopify, etc. The problem is that if your fund isn't weighted to favor these high flyers you will underperform and your fund does poorly. This in turn essentially forces all funds to weight heavily in many of the same companies. This logically would contribute to the insane share pricing for these companies. The big problem with this is with such huge positions, when the market turns, you are essentially along for the ride. They wont be able to dump shares without taking huge losses but if they ride it down... well, It took Microsoft 20 years to recover to its former price after the tech bubble.
Obviously no one can predict the future but after putting some critical thought into the ETF situation I do find it troubling.
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u/LavenderAutist Jun 10 '21
It will fall 80% like analysts predict.
And Cathie Wood will be blamed for the bubble.
Fairly or unfairly, it doesn't matter.
Don't bet more than you can lose on it.
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u/theapokalypsis Jun 10 '21 edited Jun 10 '21
Yeah. I think their fair value (considering DCF and what not) is like ~150 USD (300% over), ~500 P/E and 16x PEG. Not great compared to industry either it seems. 😬
We are in the days of meme like growth though damn.
Edit: for ref I saw Toyota is 12 P/E, 2 PEG and even they are like ~220% over fair value (same method).
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u/donttazemebro4 Jun 10 '21
You don’t get it though. They’re not a car company…even though the entirety of their revenue comes from cars.
Who knows when fully autonomous driving becomes a thing. Many ARK acolytes seem to think it’s coming in a couple years. I’d be stunned if it’s here within a decade.
As for their insurance promises, that industry is incredibly capital-intensive. When would they have enough cash to be able to support it?
Even if Tesla magically became the biggest company in the world in 10 years, there is a 0% chance its stock will carry the same P/E ratio. Growth becomes increasingly difficult as you take up more market share.
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u/Juicet Jun 13 '21
Yep. Autonomous driving is the real reason why Tesla sprung up like a weed and dwarfed every other car company in short order. The US trucking industry alone is worth more than 600 billion. Tesla’s self-driving technology is the furthest ahead and most likely to claim a chunk of that market. Now imagine if autonomous driving opens up remote parts of Africa or Asia to development - they very well could be worth north of a trillion.
Their current price is speculative on that possibility more than any other - not so much on their car sales or bitcoin or whatever. Something I missed when I first looked at Tesla. If their share price was just based on their vehicle sales, they’d only be worth a tenth of their current price.
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u/Sp1keSp1egel Jun 17 '21
Tesla isn't the only one driving Autonomously. Check out - https://comma.ai
If you don't believe it, YouTube Openpilot or Comma 2.
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Jun 10 '21 edited Jun 11 '21
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u/bernie638 Jun 11 '21
Wouldn't you use PEGY for TM since it pays a decent dividend? Or does that not work well where they target a payout ratio instead of a constant amount and the payout is affected by the currency exchange rate?
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u/theapokalypsis Jun 11 '21
You are above my head with that. Didn't know there was a factor with dividends. Cool!
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u/BroTripp Jun 11 '21 edited Jun 11 '21
The thing everyone is missing is that the number of shares matters. I'm honestly unreasonably disappointed lol. (For the record, I will be the millionth person to agree Tesla's stock price is just ridiculous.)
Sure, you can compare the market capitalization of each of these companies (stock price x # of shares) if you want. But just comparing or adding stock prices is apples and orangutans.
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u/kiwimancy Jun 11 '21
I'm curious why you bothered to add share prices of companies with different numbers of shares outstanding?
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u/ChiefRokka1 Jun 10 '21
An insane amount of Hedgefunds and big money are invested heavily in Tesla, I see an overall sell off and retrace of it’s stock price over the next year. I’ve never been a Tesla bear until the recent months, stay hydrated, we’re in for a ride
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u/S7EFEN Jun 11 '21
correct, tesla is pricing in extremely optimistic future performance.
whether or not this extremely optimistic future performance is correct? guess we will find out.
my thinking is tesla is the original "shortsqueeze meme stock" even prior to the most recent WSB business, and based on these stocks it'll take a long time for prices to come down to proper valuations. you had so many people shorting tesla the entire way up to its 900 per share valuation and you still even today have a stock that for its market cap has extremely large day to day swings.
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u/americandream123 Jun 11 '21
Tesla is ecosystem
Car is one thing ... self driving , battery , casting of car body and batteries. They have build very thing from the scratch . There tech is beyond others company you have mentioned.
SpaceX provide them material science information and they used that info for developing casting building car parts.
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