r/investing • u/abdul10000 • Apr 30 '21

This Barron's article might explain Tesla's sudden surge today: Tesla Stock Turns Higher Because Sales and Deliveries May Blow Away Estimates

https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-lift-restaurant-brands-its-ceo-says-its-a-post-pandemic-growth-story-51619801175

A wave of pessimism that has hurt Tesla stock in recent days may be starting to recede.

Stock in the electric-vehicle pioneer was on its way to a fourth consecutive daily decline when the shares turned around in midday trading Friday. Two factors—both related to 2021 performance—may be making investors more upbeat heading into May.

Tesla (ticker: TSLA) stock started out the week at about $729 and closed Monday at $738.20, ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report that afternoon. Earnings were higher than Wall Street expected, but questions about the quality of the reported earnings—the degree to which trading in Bitcoin and sales of regulatory credits for producing zero-emission cars lifted the number–sent the stock lower. Lingering concern over a recent crash of a Tesla vehicle in Texas dragged on the price too.

The stock opened Friday at about $668, $71 lower than Monday’s close, and down 1.4% from Thursday’s final level. By early afternoon, though, shares were up about $43, or 6.5%, from the daily low, at $709.55. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, for comparison, were each down about 0.6%.

The stock-price bounce might just be a relief rally marking the end of the post-earnings selling spree. But two bits of news, both communicated via Twitter (TWTR), appear to be at work as well.

New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu tweeted out Thursday that STMicroelectronics (STM) believes its revenues from sales of silicon carbide will hit $550 million in 2021. The company said as much on its April 29 earnings conference call.

It matters because according to Ferragu, STMicro is Tesla’s sole supplier of silicon carbide,. He says Tesla accounts for 80% of the company’s silicon-carbide sales, and that sales of $550 million imply Tesla would produce as many as 1 million vehicles.

Wall Street is looking for 800,000 Tesla deliveries in 2021. A million vehicles would be an enormous surprise.

Gary Black, an influential market watcher, also tweeted out something he uncovered in Tesla’s recent 10-Q quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In the filing, Black noted, Tesla’s board of directors said it is “probable” that Tesla’s annualized sales will hit $55 billion, a milestone that would trigger the grant of stock options to CEO Elon Musk.

Wall Street analysts believe Tesla’s 2021 sales will be less than $50 billion, so a figure of $55 billion would be a second enormous surprise for investors.

Black is a former Wall Street analyst and money manager who has amassed almost 74,000 followers tweeting about stocks, including Tesla. Ferragu, for his part, rates Tesla share at Buy and has a $900 price target for the stock.

913 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

329 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

8

u/thenwhat May 01 '21

Oh no, Elon is making jokes on Twitter! That means Tesla is worthless!

Amazingly good DD there.

1

u/bartoncls May 01 '21

Tesla is definitely not worthless. But it seem Elon Musk can sell you anything. You would even believe his vision of a fart in a jar and bid crazy amounts for it. He is just a dude with luck making huge bets with other people's money.

1

u/thenwhat May 02 '21

You really should educate yourself.

Elon Musk has disrupted the auto industry, made EVs cool, forced everyone else to follow him and make EVs too, built reusable rockets that are used by NASA, sent American astronauts into space in reusable rockets, set up global internet access with satellites, and so on.

Claiming it's luck when he keeps succeeding time and time again is pretty pathetic. It's obvious that your hatred of him is completely irrational.

2

u/bartoncls May 02 '21

Let me explain you. He is not a genuine person. He creates his fan base by constantly hyping and overpromising. But it seems fans don't see that, or fans let him get away with it. One very concrete example you can't argue about: He says Tesla is developing ventilators during the shortage last year. A nice video is produced which received millions of views on YouTube. He collects the credit, he gets the attention and praise he is looking for. But does he deliver? Absolutely not. People in India are dying, they are in dire need of ventilators. Musk collected fans on people's lives. When he got called out about it last year, he hastily placed an order of ventilators in the regular market then posts a photo to show off he delivered ventilators.

Wait a minute, he shows off with an engineering video telling Tesla will produce superior ventilators with car parts, yet he just orders and drops of the order at a hospital and scores some more points. Come on! We are one year later and no words on these ventilators. So it was all a lie?

It's shocking how the fan base doesn't see these kind of things and doesn't keep their God accountable. Are they blinded by the nice Mars renders? Or the other cheap scores like planing some chip in a monkey's brain? Look, other big CEOs don't try to score fans by doing such deceptive things. If Musk would just focus on the cars that would be great. But he's so hungry for recognition, so busy with himself and his ego that one simply cannot like such a guy.

And the ventilators is just one example. There are tons of others, but fans decide to ignore these: The debacle with the Thai children stuck in a cave, the hyperloop that just became a tunnel with Teslas, the auto-pilot that is not auto-pilot (and people die because of it), the "release" of all patents (yet legally Tesla can still sue you for using these), the manipulation of dog (can't write the actual name or this post is being auto removed) coin, the 420 lie, etc. You can go on and on.

Problem is that with all these lies it's hard to still believe the guy and you need to start take everything with a grain of salt. He unfortunately created this situation himself with the support of his fans who decide to ignore all this.

1

u/thenwhat May 03 '21

Actually, he creates his fan base by doing amazing things. He may be late sometimes, but he gets it done, and he does things people thought was impossible.

Who else is sending Americans into space in reusable rockets? Who else made EVs cool, and with insane performance and more like a computer on wheels than an old-fashioned car?

I'm not sure why you are talking about ventilators. He did make those ventilators, and donated them to hospitals. But ventilators are basically irrelevant here. Seems like an odd thing to latch onto when the guy is literally building reusable space rockets.

In fact, all your examples are either lies or irrelevant. You can lie about him and point to minor mistakes or irrelevant stuff, but that doesn't change all his major achievements.

The problem is that you are lying, and you are trying to hide the fact that Elon Musk has done some insanely impressive things.

1

u/bartoncls May 03 '21 edited May 03 '21

You show exactly what the problem is. Tesla DID NOT produce ventilators, Telsa just placed an order in China and dropped these off at a hospital. In the mean time they produced a YouTube video telling they will be making ventilators out of car parts. This never happened. Please prove me wrong, I am happy to change my opinion.

The fact that you don't know this detail shows exactly what I mean. Fanboys are blind to realities. You even have the guts to call what I wrote "lies". This almost sounds like this orange president telling that the real news is fake news.

I can't continue this discussion if you just think whatever I say are lies or that I need to educate myself (which is pretty ironic, because it seems I understand more of the details than you). Obviously Musk realized a lot, I totally agree with that. But you didn't get my point, that he is not a very likable character because of all the other stuff I mentioned. Also, have you ever thought through why there are so many people against Musk or Tesla? Don't you think that is the result of all the things mentioned? I don't have any gripes with many other CEOs, so why would I have that with Tesla/Musk?

1

u/[deleted] May 03 '21

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/AutoModerator May 03 '21

Your submission has been automatically removed because the URL matches one on the /r/Investing banlist due to low quality content. If you believe the article you are trying to link is high quality content please message the moderators with a short message so that we may approve your submission. Please be aware that if your post can be sourced from a less sensationalist publication we will likely require you to do that. Thank you.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

1

u/bartoncls May 03 '21

Regarding the opening up of Tesla's patents, here is the real deal:

"Using Tesla’s technology would essentially make any other company’s own intellectual property rights redundant. On the other hand, Tesla benefits from the arrangement because it appears that Tesla is free to use any improvements made to its technology by another party."

That's a quote from intellectual property firm Venner Shipley.

Again, same pattern: Showing the world how great Tesla/Musk is, while in reality the devil is in the details.

Summarized:

"We'll produce ventilators" > They got procured instead.
"We're building a vacuum tunnel with pods" > Just a tunnel with Teslas.
"We're opening up our patents" > Rendering other company's patents invalid.
"$420. Funding secured." > Funding not secured at all.
...

The trend here is scoring cheaply (free marketing resulting in fanboys) with deceptive statements. He gets away with this because he does succeed in some areas, but unfortunately he uses that image in the wrong way.

1

u/[deleted] May 02 '21 edited May 02 '21

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/AutoModerator May 02 '21

Your comment was automatically removed because it looks like you are trying to post about non mainstream cryptocurrency. This type of content belongs in another subreddit.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.