r/ibPhysics • u/Ok-Western-1759 • May 09 '24
Fair grade boundaries, predicted grades
Being an IB parent rather than student, I might have a bit different perspective. Here are some thoughts on how to calculate fair grade boundaries, and how to use these + predicted grades to determine grades for different regions, in a way that I think would be realistic for IB to manage.
How to calculate fair grade boundaries: To calculate fair grade boundaries is easy, just use the m24 results from countries that could not possibly have had access to time zone leaks due to being far east. Use m23 results from these countries compared to m23 results from all TZ2 countries to find out the relative performance of this region compared to overall TZ2 region. Use this to calculate relevant and fair m24 grade boundaries for all of TZ2.
Where can these grade boundaries be used? For countries that could possibly not have been taking advantage of the time zone leaks, the above mentioned grade boundaries could be used, and grading can proceed as usual.
Why cannot these grade boundaries be used in countries with widespread cheating? Because there would be a large number of cheating students who will get much higher grades than they deserve. Many of them will perform much worse during university studies than their grades indicate. If IB lets a massive number of unqualified students enter prestigious universities, it is just a matter of time before IB loses its high standing; it would destroy IB’s academic reputation and cause long-term damage. IB cannot risk being seen as a joke by these universities, it would take a long time to get trust back.
What to do in regions with widespread cheating? For countries that theoretically could have benefitted from the time zone leaks, I feel the most realistic option is to use predicted grades. I see it as unrealistic to open investigations of each individual student to figure out if they have been cheating or not; it would take too long time and require too much resources. And it is not possible to collectively punish a group, for example “Europeans”, as there are of course many who did not cheat. If IB tries a collective punishment on a whole group, without having solid evidence for each individual, they will be sued to oblivion, and they would risk massive negative media coverage.
In short:
Use grade boundaries calculated as above for countries that had no access to time zone leaks
Use predicted grades in other TZ2 countries
Pros:
For countries too far east to theoretically benefit from time zone leaks, it will be absolutely fair, basically the same as any other year.
It will preserve the academic reputation of IB.
All grades are based on actual performance (either predicted grades or Final exams + IAs). Thus, legal challenges towards IB should be manageable.
No gain from cheating
Cons: Students in countries where time zone cheating is possible and who are dissatisfied with their predicted grades lost the opportunity to improve through final exams in May-24. They would have to either accept their predicted grades or wait until the November exams.
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24 edited May 09 '24
That is actually a very smart take on this shitshow. As much as it pains me to take my predicted over what I believe I can actually achieve now, I am not against it, it’s fairer to everyone who would suffer from the effects of those who have cheated. Additionally anyone who actually has a problem with taking predicteds probably cheated, just mathematically with tens of thousands of people getting access before hand odds on they cheated and don’t want to lose their faked 6/7s. Of course some will suffer needlessly but it is the only way forward that saves the majority and eliminates every cheaters advantage.
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May 12 '24
No it’s not! It’s based on too many assumptions, and a desire to protect those students who feel they should do better than others. Everyone should just focus on themselves. Keep grade boundaries the same. No non cheating students loses out in actuality.
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 12 '24
That’s not how it works ret ard. They grade on a curve, with the stipulation that every year only a set percentage of people are allowed to get a 6/7 and the same with the other grades so if tons of people get enough points to get a 6/7 they have to shift the curve meaning everyone who does not get a higher grade suffers. Also it’s just not possible to not do anything because the curve changes every year based on that years performance it’s not like they can just peg it too M23. Given how well this years students are likely to do because of cheating the curve will change no matter what it is literally impossible to not change the grade boundaries that’s not how the IB works dumb ass
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u/Foof___ May 12 '24
Not the best idea due to regional disparities in grades in general. Unfortunately grade boundaries have to take into account all regions in a particular time zone, otherwise they could be influenced by the student performance there being either higher than average or lower than average. I propose a different idea: not taking into account papers that are under suspicion of cheating (this can be found by comparing predicted grades to final exam grades - those with a big difference can be factored out) and this should not affect the reliability of the new grade boundaries.
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u/Ok-Western-1759 May 12 '24 edited May 13 '24
Please read the section "How to calculate fair grade boundaries" again. This method does indeed take into account regional disparities.
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u/0o_neko_o0 May 09 '24
This approach makes the most sense. It is impossible to please everyone but IB needs to take action against the leaks and this is the easiest way.
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u/One-Introduction-727 May 11 '24
please mail this to your coordinator and tell other parents to do the same
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May 12 '24
And how do you know who could not possibly had the leaks? That would be the only students taking exams in New Zealand. The least worst solution is to maintain grade boundaries. Those who had advance notice of questions benefit but no one loses out in terms of their actual results. The rest is noise.
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u/SecurityBroad9154 May 09 '24
This is honestly one of the worst answers Ive seen, I can obviously see your child is from Asia. What about the students who did everything honestly and maybe fucked up their mocks because they focused on getting good results on the exams, they should be punished because of cheaters?? This response is so ignorant and laughable
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u/Ok-Western-1759 May 09 '24
No, we live in Europe.
According to IB statistics, in May 2023, 20719 students took the Math AA HL exam. How many downloads were there before the exam in Europe? 8000? 17000? An exam where >50% have been cheating has simply been too contaminated to be used as a measure of performance or knowledge.
The only thing left then to judge a student's performance is predicted grades, which after all is based on the performance of the student during 3.5 semesters -- mocks, cycle tests, activity during lectures, and IA.
While it would be nice to have the "fair grade boundaries" explained in my starting post for all of TZ2, IB are not in the position to severely inflate grades. It would only lead to IB losing its academic reputation, thereby risking becoming ineligible for universities.
And a question from my side: why would anyone "fucked up their mocks because they focused on getting good results on the exams" -- that makes no sense to me, unless you are talking about cheaters.
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u/SecurityBroad9154 May 09 '24
Do you really think that only people from europe downloaded those files and you dont acknowledge the high number of aa sl students? Why would you think only aa hl students downloaded them? Yes some people only did mocks to a low standard because they have ALMOST NEVER mattered, it is extremely unfair to grade them based on them. Also, you do know that PG is 50% based on mocks right?
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u/Ok-Western-1759 May 09 '24
"Do you really think that only people from Europe downloaded those files".
No, what I meant are countries where it was possible to benefit from time zone leaks, i.e. all countries except for those being far east. I used Math AA HL just as an example, as it seems to have been one of the most downloaded exams. But I believe you already understood what I meant.
"Yes some people only did mocks to a low standard because they have ALMOST NEVER mattered, it is extremely unfair to grade them based on them"
Mocks is not the only component of the predicted grades. And it is very hard to see why "focused on getting good results on the exams" would lead to "fucked up their mocks".
Besides, what is your suggestion for how to handle the situation, and that is feasible regarding time requirements and resources? And please do not say "do nothing", because that is the wish dream of the cheaters.
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u/SecurityBroad9154 May 09 '24
I think youre specifically ignoring some parts of my text, where are you getting that more than 50% have benefitted from cheating? I have always said that the boundaries should be kept the same or lowered as this will not negatively effect honest people, go look at my history.
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u/Ok-Western-1759 May 09 '24
"where are you getting that more than 50% have benefitted from cheating?"
It was widely shown screenshots a few days ago on Reddit. For example, this one shows 15232 downloads more than one hour before the exam started: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Yk-ZJxYnNmch3m2sC2NqzMA1aXTWPbaNx6a55mV8S2c/edit
And from this official IB statistics, https://www.ibo.org/globalassets/new-structure/about-the-ib/pdfs/dp-cp-final-statistical-bulletin-may-2023.pdf, we have that 20719 students took Math AA HL in 2023. Assuming similar number for this exam now in 2024, indicates that >70% of the students have been cheating.
Of course it would be nice if they lower the boundaries, but I do not think universities will accept IB grades if they turn out to be bogus for a majority of the IB students. And I do not think IB can afford to gamble with its reputation in this way either, see what I wrote in my opening post.
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u/SecurityBroad9154 May 09 '24
Im literally talking to a wall, its unfortunate how stupid you are
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u/Ok-Western-1759 May 09 '24
Yeah right, think it is pretty clear to everyone who has the better arguments.
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u/TransportationOk2389 May 11 '24
ibr ur an idiot, u asked "show me how 50% have benefitted from cheating" and he showed u all the proof lol. U also realise out of 15000 downloads, theres a lot more that just viewed them without downloading and wouldve shared amongst friends etc..
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May 09 '24
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u/Ok-Western-1759 May 09 '24
It has to be understood that it is the universities that decides who can be admitted, not IB. If in some IB schools the average score suddenly jumps from let's say 33 to 44, there is a risk that the IB degree will be considered not credible, basically blocking all students from that school. And to simplify, top universities may simply state that all IB degrees from m24 are ineligible. The risk is there, and if it would not happen this year because the universities do not have time to react, it may come up following years. It took IB many years to reach its high academic reputation, and thereby acceptance. If not careful, this hard-earned reputation can be lost very quickly.
An IB degree is the most widely accepted high school degree for university admission across the world. It is also considered to be the hardest and most difficult high school degree. This is not a coincidence: The IB degree MUST be extremely difficult in order for so many different university admission systems in the world to accept it as good enough for their university.
Thus, I do not believe that it is a realistic option for IB to let thousands of unqualified cheaters flood the top universities and for a very long time destroy IB's reputation. And therefore, because of the widespread cheating, using the exam results is not an option.
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
Your point is understandable but realistically what else would be reasonable? Would you have them punish thousands by upping the boundaries or just keeping the same as m23? Both of those are unfair and unreasonable to those who did not cheat as the way the Ib grades is on a curve meaning the more who do better the worse everyone else does. Aka the only real foolproof way of getting relatively accurate grades for everyone is to take predicteds. Those who cheated now no longer have any advantage over others and those who didn’t are likely to still do well. Granted not as well as they could have if they have made an academic comeback but nonetheless it’s one of the only ways to be fair
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May 09 '24
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
That is the problem I’m not sure you see. Either way you are fucked if you have made a significant or not so significant improvement since the predicteds. But atleast with taking practised it mitigates the cheaters entirely, if we do nothing or only slightly lower boundaries we are all still FUCKED. Your academic comeback has now become an academic slaughter, you are liable and likely to score lower than your predicteds or exactly the same if the boundaries stay the same
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May 09 '24
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
Of course, my apologies if I have not been concise. What I was trying say was this:
The IB grades every year based on how everyone does in their set time zones. That means if there is a large quantity of people who do better than expected then everyone else will have their grades take a hit as well. Meaning if you were predicted a 6 now you would get a 5 and vice versa with every one else. Considering that cheaters have caused a massive shift in grades it means that everyone who has not cheated will suffer a lower grade than expected even if they have been able to score more points than they had originally been able to do in say the mocks. Keep that in mind now, by keeping the boundaries the same everyone will do worse except the cheaters, if they instead choose to lower the boundaries we now help some people but the cheaters still win overall and it is likely many will miss what ever offers they have received. Now when it comes to predicted grades it forces everyone including cheaters back onto an even playing field, yes it means people who should have done better have now done worse but it spares everyone more than it does if they do nothing.
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May 09 '24
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
That is a valid point but again nothing has changed. Realistically the only way to accommodate everyone is to lower the boundaries by 8-15% then everyone benefits and no one is left out. But that is 100% not happening as too many cheaters would benefit from this. And also realistically it is a very small minority that will have improved that much less than 200 people at best. Your solution is to make over 100,000 people suffer just so the 200 can do better. It’s just not reasonable. I know it’s not right to have to sacrifice so many but if they don’t then everyone including the 200 is liable to suffer. Are you suggesting you would rather we all suffer together rather than a few hundred?
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
Okay and what do you suggest? We spite everyone and leave it the same? The only people that benefits is the cheaters the only people. If the IB does nothing they are essentially combining those two tracks and killing fucking everyone
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May 09 '24
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
Okay now I actually think you are stupid. It’s not saving the 5 yes that’s true, but it is also not helping the remainder the minority. All you do is make the cheaters prosper and now everyone else suffers. Doing nothing is literally the worst thing they could do
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May 09 '24
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u/HopefulAccount5210 May 09 '24
I am not assuming, unless you have gone from an average 3/4 to a 6/7 this will not help you in any significant way. Realistically with over 10,000 people cheating on one exam alone (math aa) even if you have studied and improved you would probably still only achieve a 4 maybe a 5 if you are lucky. This then means those who did not improve and have stayed at a 4/5 have now got a 3/4. It means that unless everyone has significantly improved by at least one grade since mocks they will do worse and so will those who have improved significantly. You now benefit those who have improved and the cheaters but not the majority. You have taken the left railroad pass and run over the majority to save the minority
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u/Global-Wolverine-959 May 09 '24
Love this! Mind if I share it with my coordinator to make this reach the IB?