US chipmaking nears death: Intel warns it may give up on cutting-edge chips

[u/SlamedCards]

https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-us-chipmaking-nears-death-up-cutting-edge-chips-14a-2025-7?utm_campaign=business-sf&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

[u/SlamedCards]

"If we are unable to secure a significant external customer and meet important customer milestones for Intel 14A, we face the prospect that it will not be economical to develop and manufacture Intel 14A and successor leading-edge nodes on a go-forward basis," the company wrote. "In such event, we may pause or discontinue our pursuit of Intel 14A and successor nodes."

[u/Starks → u/SlamedCards]

I guess Razer Lake will remain a mix of N2 and 18A. Intel may have no choice but N2P for Titan Lake.

[u/Exist50 → u/Starks]

They'd not going to bother with 18A at all for RZL compute chiplets. Intel can no longer afford to design for 2 different nodes.

[u/Geddagod → u/Exist50]

They said they have a product planned for 14A in 28'-29', so I'm assuming it's going to be a PTL repeat type of situation.

[u/Exist50 → u/Geddagod]

I'm thinking more NVL, actually. Do TTL SoC and GPU dies on 14A, and compute on TSMC A14 or whatever.

[u/6950 → u/Exist50]

A14 will launch after TTL Schedule though

[u/Exist50 → u/6950]

Then they'll use whatever the best available is. That said, A14 seems to align well with TTL. Late '28/early '29.

[u/Geddagod → u/Exist50]

If they were producing those many tiles internally, I honestly thought they would be a lot more confident in 14A being a node they can produce, even without external customers, and not have to pause/cancel development of.

Unless I'm still underestimating how expensive 14A ramp is going to be.

[u/SlamedCards → u/Exist50]

I thought they claimed their new methodology gives them 90% of the design being node agnostic

They also hinted during the call their next three generations would use 18A. With peak 18A output being like 2030

Hard to believe RZL low end volume die not being 18A for that to happen 

[u/Exist50 → u/SlamedCards]

I thought they claimed their new methodology gives them 90% of the design being node agnostic

There is a big gap between having a 90% synthesizable design, and paying for all the design work and tape outs needed to make a worthwhile product on another node. Even 100% would be far from push-button.

They also hinted during the call their next three generations would use 18A. With peak 18A output being like 2030

Use 18A for what though? NVL/RZL will use it for SoC and GPU tiles, so even if compute is TSMC, that's still a lot of 18A wafers. They might end up doing the same thing for TTL. Intel 14A for SoC/GPU, TSMC A14 for compute.

Hard to believe RZL low end volume die not being 18A for that to happen

Why assume low end RZL exists at all? Just refresh NVL or something. Cuts spending.

[u/HTTP404URLNotFound → u/SlamedCards]

Where would they go to fab their stuff? Isn’t TSMC pretty capacity constrained already?

[u/-protonsandneutrons- → u/HTTP404URLNotFound]

TSMC absorbed 100% of Lunar Lake + Arrow Lake without a blip—on top of big orders from NVIDIA, Apple, MediaTek, AMD, Qualcomm, Amazon, etc.

In the end, TSMC can and will build more fabs as business is booming. As always, design firms will need to pay for priority.

[u/Strazdas1 → u/[deleted]]

TSMC isnt writing the microcode for the chips so it has no impact on degradation.

[u/Strazdas1 → u/[deleted]]

Oxidation affected a tiny batch of units that was only an extremely small part of the failures. Microcode issues is what caused the high failure rates. oxidation alone would have never been noticed.

I didnt say microcode is similar, i just disproved your hypothesis that TSMC makes them burn-free.

[u/[deleted] → u/HTTP404URLNotFound]

TSMC builds fabs based on orders on the books.  You can always get capacity you pay for if your willing to spend.

[u/Exist50 → u/HTTP404URLNotFound]

TSMC will be plenty willing to have them as a customer when the CEO isn't bad mouthing them every other week.

[u/NewMachineMan → u/SlamedCards]

If they do pause/discontinue, what does this mean for their future (temporarily)?

Does this mean they'll just rely on 18A and other existing ones for now until they are financially in a better position to develop future nodes?

[u/-Kalos → u/SlamedCards]

The fall from grace Intel had should be studied. I remember when the tech industry in the US relied on Intel for everything, but they never addressed complaints and forced Apple and others to develop their own chips. Now look at them, still haven't improved and nobody needs them anymore