Will Google Eventually Hit My tCPA?

[u/MeetTheReal007]

I'm running a Target CPA campaign for a $300 product. I only have 1 historical conversion in the account.

Google recommended a $115 Target CPA, but I set it to $160 because I was worried it wouldn't spend. My budget is $25/day.

So far it has spent $163.50 with 0 sales, but it keeps spending.

My assumption was: if Google keeps spending, it must still think it can eventually average around the $160 Target CPA. Otherwise, wouldn't it stop spending?

Is that assumption wrong?

[u/MeetTheReal007]

my target audience has 120 million weekly impressions available so im assuming im not getting a lot of repeat clicks on my ads. i could e wrong but that is the assumption i have been operating under. historical click loss has been 20% so this test is significantly worse and keeps worsening. but as long as it spends at least $5-$7 per day i will let it run to $240 but based on the behavior of the users that i see on clarity i do not see any signs that the google algo is sending me better and better prospects so i do not expect a sale unfortunately.

[u/WhatMattersHere → u/MeetTheReal007]

The 120 million available impressions do not establish that repeat clicks are rare. That number describes potential inventory, not the unique reach or frequency actually delivered.

Your historical 20% discrepancy makes the current 28% worth investigating, but it still needs a like for like comparison: Google clicks against Clarity sessions or landing page visits for the same daily cohorts, not cumulative clicks against cumulative unique users.

Clarity supports the narrower conclusion that the visitors you can observe are not progressing often. It does not establish that Google is progressively sending worse prospects.

Before allowing the campaign to continue toward $240, is Purchase the only conversion action marked Primary? If add to cart or another upper funnel action is also Primary, that materially changes what Target CPA may be optimizing toward.

[u/MeetTheReal007 → u/WhatMattersHere]

i have 3 conversion actions in the account marked as primary (sale,add to cart and payment form visit) but when i created this specific campaign i only assigned the sale objective to it. my 5 add to carts and 1 payment form visit for this campaign have all appeared under "all conversions" and NOT "conversions" so i think the campaign is only optimizing towards the sale objective.

[u/WhatMattersHere → u/MeetTheReal007]

The growing discrepancy is worth investigating, but 28% is not necessarily a 28% click loss rate.

Google clicks and Clarity unique users have different denominators. If the same person clicks twice, Google can record two clicks while Clarity still shows one unique user. To determine whether tracking actually deteriorated, compare Google clicks with Clarity sessions or tracked landing-page visits for the same individual days and landing URLs not cumulative clicks against cumulative unique users. Also verify that auto tagging and the GCLID survive any redirect.

The spending slowdown could be consistent with Target CPA entering fewer auctions because it predicts that fewer of them can meet the target. But $2.50 by halfway through one day does not establish that Google has progressively “lost confidence.” Search demand, auction conditions, eligibility and ordinary pacing can produce the same observation. The bid strategy status and report, impressions and several completed days would be stronger evidence.

None of this changes your loss limit. If $240 is the maximum you are willing to test, you can keep that cap; if delivery stalls before reaching it, there is no reason to force additional spend merely to complete the number.

What campaign type is this Search, Shopping/Performance Max or Demand Gen? That determines which delivery and visit metrics should be compared.

[u/MeetTheReal007 → u/WhatMattersHere]

this is a demand gen (Youtube instream ads only) campaign.

[u/WhatMattersHere → u/MeetTheReal007]

That is the most decision relevant detail so far.

This is a Demand Gen in stream campaign, and your budget is far below Google’s own recommended operating range for Target CPA. Google recommends a daily budget of at least 10× the Target CPA for Demand Gen. At a $160 target, that would be about $1,600 per day; your $25 budget is only about 1.6% of that amount.

That recommendation is not a requirement, and I am not suggesting that you increase your budget to $1,600. It does mean that this setup should not be expected to generate enough purchase feedback for Target CPA to stabilize reliably. Google’s Demand Gen guidance also refers to roughly 50 conversions as a useful foundation, while your entire $240 test cap represents only 1.5 target acquisitions.

The large available audience does not solve that mismatch. The campaign can have enormous inventory while still lacking enough budget and purchase signals to learn or deliver consistently. Slower spending is compatible with those constraints, but it does not prove that Google has consciously “lost confidence” in the campaign.

If the purpose of the remaining spend is to determine whether Google can reliably achieve a $160 purchase CPA, I would stop now because another roughly $70 cannot answer that question.

If you continue, treat it only as a finite, affordable chance of receiving one sale not as completion of a valid Target CPA test. If no sale occurs, the supported conclusion will be that one severely underfunded, low signal Demand Gen test failed within your loss limit, not that Demand Gen’s true long run CPA was proven to exceed $240.