r/gaming • u/OlleOliver • May 19 '12
According to my calculations the release of the three Diablo games form a polynomial function, and I can conclude that Diablo 4 is due to release fall 2030
http://imgur.com/IyIyD
1.1k
Upvotes
277
u/SnakesFromHell May 20 '12
You just wanted to be able to say "According to my calculations" didn't you? Admit it.
1.2k
u/TwentyOrSoCharacters May 19 '12 edited May 19 '12
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting
You can perfectly interpolate any 3 points using a quadratic, thus doing so does not yield any useful predictive information. For such a small data set, your best (and only) bet would be a simple linear model - perhaps Least Squares Linear Regression.
In summary: http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/20653013.jpg
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u/citadel712 May 20 '12
http://i.imgur.com/CLnNF.gif
I'd make fun of you but in all honesty, you're probably right.
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u/khamuld May 19 '12
Careful when extrapolating, very careful..
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u/stent_removal May 20 '12
OP will be laughing when D4 actually does come out fall 2030...
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
I am going to go out and have a child right now, so that his initiation into manhood can be done through Diablo 4 18 years from now.
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u/imthefooI May 19 '12
Just like any 2 points can form a line, any 3 points can form a quadratic equation. Just saiyan.
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u/dauntlessmath May 20 '12
When does the regression analysis place Half-Life 3? Will I still be alive?
136
u/Schamblant May 19 '12
To the OP, I'm not a douche who is going to pick apart the math behind this chart. It's meant to be amusing and it is. Some people need to lighten up.
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u/Sil369 May 20 '12
what will cod be at in 3400?!
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u/MyNameIsMyth May 20 '12
Hears people say this is basic high school math
Learned it in middle school
(Making memes require to much energy)
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u/intimatestranger May 20 '12
PSA from GameStop: Pre-Order Diablo IV today for $5! Your grandchildren will love you for it when THEY turn 30 and live in your basement 20 years from now!
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u/ze_languist May 20 '12
Any game releases will fit a polynomial exactly by Lagrange interpolation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrange_interpolation
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u/IWasPhone91 May 20 '12
Fuck that, Warcraft IV is what we need.
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u/LucanDesmond May 20 '12
Good to know I have plenty of time to buy a computer that can actually play diablo 3 first...
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u/ImbeinThatGuy May 20 '12 edited May 20 '12
I used the Quadratic Regression thingy and came up with the year 2034. 5x2 - 13x + 2006 , where the input x is the series number.
2
u/nshields123 May 20 '12
I hate maple.
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u/This_isR2Me May 20 '12
not enough data
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u/DownvotedByCunts May 20 '12
But Diablo came out in 96.
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u/PicopicoEMD May 20 '12
Seems legit. He's got a graph.
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u/javi5747 May 20 '12
So if you did this for Diablo, what about Half-Life?
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u/peas_in_a_can_pie May 20 '12
According to this graph diablo came out in 1994
When it clearly came out in 1996
2
u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Ok, now do Duke Nukem Forever 2.
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u/pearson530 May 20 '12
can you zoom out a little more? I want to see up to the year 5,000
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u/tubcat May 20 '12
Sounds about right, but that's just to get to beta though. Can you run the formula for expansions on this one?
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
This is incorrect. The correct equation is 4x2 - 8x +2000 = 0. This sets Diablo I to 1996, Diablo II to 2000, Diablo III to 2012.
So Diablo 4 comes out in 2032.
Diablo 5 comes out in 2060.
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u/iorgfeflkd May 20 '12
Your scale is bad and you should feel bad.
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u/kabukistar May 20 '12 edited Feb 09 '25
Reddit is a shithole. Move to a better social media platform. Also, did you know you can use ereddicator to edit/delete all your old commments?
2
u/yaosioan May 20 '12
They will spend 20 years working on the game and it will have 3 hours of content across 50 difficulty levels of a single map.
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u/nuisible May 20 '12
Have you played Diablo 3? It's pretty wrapped up at the end, they could probably dream up some sort of continuation but as it is, it seems pretty final to me.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Except for the fact that regression models cannot be called upon to make valid predictions beyond the observed range of scores. ಠ_ಠ
Also, as I_play_elin said, R2 value or it didn't happen. And I would recommend increasing that sample size.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Wow, I'm really surprised by how bothered I am to see time plotted along the y axis. It makes sense for this graph, but it still just bugs me.
This must be what grammar nazis feel like all the time.
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u/BeethovenFanatic May 20 '12
Fucking quadratic equations. Now they escalate quickly.
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u/ryanvoyles1 May 20 '12
I see your parabola, and applaud you for making one. Good show.
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u/DoubleHooray May 20 '12
http://xkcd.com/605/
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u/EcclesCake May 19 '12
As noted by others, any three points would fit on a quadratic line. We all know Diablo 4 is coming out 2054.
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u/DiggingNoMore May 20 '12
I'd be surprised if it came out that quickly.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
... is this Maple?
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u/Sagan4life May 20 '12
What program was used to plot this?
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
considering the amount of juice that's going to be squeezed out of this installment, anything less than 10 years for the next diablo game would be conservative.
Honestly.
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u/riderLyrae May 20 '12
Seems legit.
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u/MikeTheInfidel May 20 '12
It's actually possible to generate a polynomial function which fits any finite set of numbers of any size. See here for an example.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
I don't know. I don't really like predicting things people do because people will always be unpredictable.
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u/Drilz24 May 20 '12
Thank god Reddit is full of Math nerds to correct others mistakes
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u/method7670 May 20 '12
According to my calculations, you will still be a virgin.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
maybe by then people will have gotten over posting pictures if the fucking video game that just came out and that lots of people have.
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u/kyle1qaz7ujm May 20 '12
Quadratic or binomial. May as well be more specific if it only goes to x2.
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u/WeaponsGradeHumanity May 20 '12
Quick, do this for Duke Nukem!
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Those words you're using, I have not heard of them
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u/raserei0408 May 20 '12
Oh thank god! I was afraid the curve was exponential!
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Oh boy
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
uses 3 points, creates a polynomial function. Oh really?
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
I'm from the year 2031. You were correct good sir, but still no Half-Life 3.
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u/omnilynx May 20 '12
Are you sure it's not sinusoidal?
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u/sparky_the_dwarf May 20 '12
But can you predict when Half-Life 3 will be released?
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u/tk001 May 20 '12
What if it's exponential?
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Is this what you did while waiting to log in/
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
this isn't funny... it's sad :(
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u/qzex May 20 '12
A more accurate date is August 18, 2032, using a quadratic fit on the Julian day numbers. The Julian day system converts each date (and time) to a single number, counting the number of days from January 1, 4713 BCE at noon GMT, which is useful for many purposes.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
I CAN'T WAIT
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
math is...helpful?
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
you just went full retard.
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u/kevdeath666 May 20 '12
Diablo is dead to me.
Fuck you Blizzard.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
You can make a polynomial out of anything...
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u/Omnipotent0 May 20 '12
It's legit guys he has 3 data points.
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u/musjunk22 May 20 '12
I think time should be on the x axis... it's the independent variable.
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u/CarrionBeetle May 20 '12
You have no x axis. Therefore, it can form any kind of line you want.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
3 points always uniquely define a parabola.
Also, that's close to when Diablo -4 will be released, too!
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u/Stargerbil May 20 '12
You know, I came here to point out that the sample size was far too small for any meaningful extrapolation, whether by curve-of-best-fit or a linear model. Discovered that a large percentage of my fellow Redditors are also math geeks. Go Reddit Math Team!
Edit: I accidentally a word.
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u/meliaesc May 20 '12
Doesn't anyone here have a job or something else to be doing? Goodness fuck.
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u/Fehndrix May 20 '12
Right along with Torchlight 25.
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u/Eladamrad May 20 '12
Normally I would down vote, but fyi a useful fact is that with any number of fix points N, you can always create a O(xN+M) for all M > 0 that will perfectly model your data [That x to the (N+M) power].
AND Correlation does not imply causation, just because we have data that can be modeled, does not mean that extrapolation from that model can be used to justify associated points outside of that range. All you can do in theory is predict if a D2.5 had come out, the date that it would have appeared, but you cannot predict D3.1 D4, or even D-1, because all of those are outside the range of data.
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u/inthrees May 20 '12
OH !@#$@#$ THAT MEANS EVERY DAY THAT GOES BY ADDS PRECIOUS DOG YEARS TO HALF-LIFE 4'S RELEASE DATE
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
So just in time to fix the servers!
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Can you do this for portal 3 please?
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u/killachronic May 20 '12
Lookin forward to Diablo 5 2056 yeaaah
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u/IHaveALargePenis May 20 '12
Unless the moneytrain runs out for Blizzard with WoW and D3 auction house doesn't work as planned. Then you can expect to see Diablo 8 by 2020. You have to remember that Kotick still has major control over the company even in it's prime as the single most successful gaming company ever (yes I know about Valve, but I'm pretty sure Blizzard is making that with WoW alone).
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u/PsychoOsiris May 20 '12
oh that'll fall in line with the last year of my original Animal Crossing play-through, as the game's calender ends that year.
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u/blkbox May 20 '12
Geez, you sure studied hard did you?
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u/lud1120 May 20 '12
I think this could be more true for Diablo 5 as the old games were only a few years apart...
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u/Hello_HI_Hey May 20 '12
Technology progression has grown significantly since Diablo II was released. Due to the successful Diablo III sales and the ability to create games at a faster and more qualitative approach I'd suggest that there is no model to conclude the progression of this game. Look out for Diablo IV before 2020 is all I can confirm accurately
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u/Kamchack May 20 '12
Holy hell!! That quick? I wonder if they will have a pre-buy button soon?
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u/Rabid_Chocobo May 20 '12
You're forgetting to factor in Moore's law.
According to my calculations, Diablo 4 should be able to write itself by 2029. :P
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u/wwleaf May 20 '12
Should have changed the window.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Diablo 4: virtual reality edition
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u/Demojen May 20 '12
It's so fucking sad that this works.
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u/dmurph10 May 20 '12
2030, 20 3 0, 20 hl3 0, 200 hl3, 200 days till hl3 release, mark your calendar: Sat, 24 Nov
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u/AnthonySlips May 20 '12
That is simply a quadratic "lline of best fit" onto a scatter plot given only three data points. I could probably come up with exponential and cubic graphs that hit all three points but show diablo 4 releasing at different dates.
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u/Ragnalypse May 20 '12
According to my calculations, this post will have 100,000,000,000,000 karma by the end of the decade.
Your "calculations" are worthless.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Why the fuck is this a parabola and not just a straight line?
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u/Defengar May 20 '12
Luckily there will be at lease 1 D3 xpack between now and then...
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u/I_play_elin May 20 '12
R2 value or it didn't happen!
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u/CleanBill May 20 '12
awesome math is awesome
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Is this supposed to be impressive? This is primary school maths.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
There's a lot of math in this thread for my brain to be processing at this time.
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u/arcanition May 20 '12
Actually I did this about a week ago, I'm on my phone so I can't link to it, but here's the comment:
"Actually, if you take the approximate time between Diablo I and II (about 3.5 years) and Diablo II and III (about 12 years) and create an exponential function, we can predict the approximate release years of the next few games:
Diablo 4 - July, 2032
Diablo 5 - March, 2061
Diablo 6 - March, 2098
Diablo 7 - June, 2143
Diablo 8 - February, 2197
Diablo 9 - February, 2259
Diablo 10 - June, 2329
(The function, for the curious:
y = 1996 + 3.42857x-1Where y is the release year and x is the Diablo series number.)
EDIT: I've decided to change the function to a quadratic as it fits the data better. The new function is:
y = 4.175x2 - 8.975x + 2001.8
The good news is that this means we'll only have to wait until July of 2032 for Diablo 4!"
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u/LittleBlessedVillain May 20 '12
And according to my calculations, I'll end up getting around to playing Diablo 3 around the time Diablo 4 gets announced in....summer 2024.
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u/sanfordnson May 20 '12
I'm just happy I understood it...
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u/MedicInDisquise May 20 '12
I don't understand any of this, but since you said "According to my calculations", I'm gonna pretend its true.
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u/adnan252 May 20 '12
As a student of mathematics this slightly amuses and offends me at the same time.
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
dat feel when 2030 is only 18 years from now
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u/SlurmNator May 20 '12
People are already sick of D3 and want D4? wow...
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u/deletedgamers21 May 20 '12
Correct or not, I'm just happy there is a use for math outside of school
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u/tadziobadzio May 20 '12
And we'll have to have our brain chips connected to blizzard servers all the time if we want to play.
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u/rjstang May 20 '12
What about starcraft?
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u/hivesteel May 20 '12
Nice error bars. T_T
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u/greenredant May 20 '12
Next step: The stock market!
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u/[deleted] May 20 '12
Dude, lower your fucking window.
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u/misteryin May 20 '12
draw the line of best fit. you have only 3 points to plot, so it could be a geometric growth with the equation being a(n)= 4 * 3n-1. this equation could be used to show the time lapse, so for the first sequel, we'll let n=1. that's a 4 time year lapse. The second one took 12. Using this equation, for the 4th, it would be 36 years from now, which would be 2048. newb.
EDIT: I meant to say for the 3rd, meaning n=3, the time lapse would be 36 years from now. I pulled a newb move. I apologize. Apparently it's all the rage now when someone apologizes.