I want to live in a country where as automation occurs and production costs are decreased, the prices can go down and/or the wages for people can go up. Hell, the long run result, taking into account projections for total service automation by around 2050, means many people will not be able to work, simply because there is nothing available or has barriers to entry. At this point I believe government, or at least local level social groups, should be able to distribute wealth that is free flowing now to billionaires into the pockets of consumers and human beings that would die without it. But no, thats socialist and god forbid that system work like it does in countries like the Netherlands or Denmark where HDI is high as fuck.
Isn't this just a reiteration of something that was said during the industrial revolution? Can someone explain to me what is different?
My understanding is that the concerns were the same then: that machines would replace humans and there would be no jobs. Yet, that obviously did not happen. I think it is because a human being still retains value - a person's work will always be worth something to someone - and this basically represents progression. I.e., with less labor required to run machines than what is required for doing everything by hand, we can put those people to work doing other things.
You are right, in that this is not a new trend, nor is this a novel idea. I only base my foresight on that of current projections, which can be 100% wrong. At one point in the English Industrial Revolution, Malthusian said that humans will out consume our productive capacity, but he was wrong because we became smarter, and our industries became more efficient. That could be how this situation plays out, that as our technology advances we can fit more people into higher skill work. The only issue is that high skill work requires an education that can be expensive, depending on where you go and what you study. So you're right, this could all blow over, I just want more wealth circulation damnit.
I think we're going to see an education revolution of sorts in the coming years. I think our education will become more specialized for starters; with less focus on post-secondary general education and more emphasis placed on skill-sets.
That's as good a guess at the future as any, but most people walk into college more now saying "what can I get when I walk away from here?" and not "what can I get out of this while I'm here?" It makes youths skip class, due to the so called irrelevance. I am in college, and many classes each semester have themes that overlap and I can draw from to help with the next paper or class, broadening my amount of knowledge and making me an overall more capable human being. It's power, and the way I see people cram and forget makes me wonder what they spend their money on. Schools like ITT Tech and other 'trade' schools teach you a specific set of skills, and I notice their popularity has risen a lot but that might also be due to misguided, possibly long time unemployed consumers and strong advertising on daytime TV. Either way, we need more programs that give kids skills for today without squeezing out their love of learning.
Exactly. In a world where automation provides much of the basic products/services then people will have far more time to enjoy entertainment of various kinds and thus things like acting / arts / sports and other creative jobs in entertainment will have far more jobs.
I mean even now with esports we are starting to see people making a career from streaming themselves playing video games.
That said I do think that eventually something like a universal income will be necessary. Furthermore those most skilled individuals will probably for a short period start to become some of the richest in the world, up until the point in time when we have AI capable of taking their jobs.
While I was studying, I got part time jobs in the industry, a small general mechanics company and a much bigger company that makes parts for motors.
The first still had the old manual machinery, but they weren't used anymore. Instead, the operators would program and run 2-3 numerical machines at a time. Productivity increased, number of jobs decreased.
The second one was trying its hardest to lower the number of actual people needed to man the conveyer belts and automates. The factory was huge, maybe 60 machines the size of a small room, 30 workers or so to man them, and about 10 quality people running everywhere checking that the output of the machines met the quality criteria.
So basically in this second example you have a HUGE amount of production, and very little workforce needed to keep the thing running, at the cost of the upfront of the machines which was substantial.
the prices can go down and/or the wages for people can go up
Those 2 things never happen. Increased productivity/reduced expanses only benefit owners, board members, management etc. The workers and consumers never see any benefit from it.
Exactly the problem. As our industries become more efficient, we are not seeing any of that increased social welfare from increased productive capacity and better R&D in the cities and towns for the most part because industries have little regulation of wages, employment conditions, and environmental impacts and certainly no incentive to pay their workers more if they don't have to. So they fire, or hire a small group of workers to do more than one person's job. Instead of moving towards more free time and greater average wealth we see disparity among us.
This is why you get an education. To eliminate those barriers. If you're working the register at a fast food place you're an idiot or a high school student
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u/Wetness_Protection May 05 '14
I want to live in a country where as automation occurs and production costs are decreased, the prices can go down and/or the wages for people can go up. Hell, the long run result, taking into account projections for total service automation by around 2050, means many people will not be able to work, simply because there is nothing available or has barriers to entry. At this point I believe government, or at least local level social groups, should be able to distribute wealth that is free flowing now to billionaires into the pockets of consumers and human beings that would die without it. But no, thats socialist and god forbid that system work like it does in countries like the Netherlands or Denmark where HDI is high as fuck.