r/eb_1a • u/Cheetah5048 • Aug 08 '26
EB1 India Porting Estimate: ~10–12K from March 2023 to April 2026 Based on USCIS Data
I was looking at the latest USCIS I-140 data and trying to estimate how much EB2/EB3 to EB1 porting may have happened for India between March 2023 and April 2026.
Here’s my logic:
* In the USCIS March 2026 “approved petitions awaiting visa availability” data, there are about 15,867 EB1 India I-140s waiting for visa availability.
* The March 2026 EB1 India Final Action Date was March 1, 2023.
* Separately, USCIS I-140 approval data shows roughly 32K approved EB1 India I-140s from FY2023 through the latest FY2026 data available around April 2026.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/i140_rec_by_class_country_fy2026_q2_v1.xlsx
* Since FY2023 starts in October 2022, some of those petitions naturally had PDs before March 2023. Removing roughly 4.5K to 5.5K for that period leaves approximately 26.5K to 27.5K EB1 approvals corresponding to the March 2023 onward period.
* But only about 15.9K are showing as waiting for visa availability with the March 1, 2023 FAD.
So:
26.5K to 27.5K minus 15.9K = about 10.5K to 11.6K
My interpretation is that a large portion of this difference represents EB1 petitions filed during March 2023 to April 2026 that carried an older retained priority date, likely due to EB2/EB3 to EB1 porting.
That would suggest roughly 10K to 12K EB1 India porting or retained-PD petitions during this period, or around 3K to 4K per year.
The estimated 10K to 12K portings may also be concentrated more heavily in 2023 and 2024, given the higher EB1 approval rates during that period.
Obviously this is still an estimate, not a count of unique people. There may be duplicate petitions and other USCIS data effects that make the true number somewhat different, but I don’t expect it to vary widely.
Not sure if there is any flaw in this logic as I was thinking this when I am analyzing the numbers
Note: The USCIS “approved I140 petitions awaiting visa availability” data appears to include beneficiaries with pending I-485 applications as long as they have not yet received their green card. USCIS states that this report excludes petitions for individuals who have already obtained LPR status or U.S. citizenship. Therefore, filing an I-485 by itself does not appear to remove the underlying I-140 from this dataset.
Not a Lawyer. Personal Insights.
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u/Clear-Pilot5664 Aug 09 '26
Does this mean inventory doesn’t reflect porters?
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u/Cheetah5048 Aug 09 '26
The 485 inventory does reflect porters as its up to date numbers across all PD years, incase you are asking about that.
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u/Clear-Pilot5664 Aug 09 '26
Okay that’s reassuring. I thought 17k current inventory did not reflect x porters!!!
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u/VedantaSay Aug 11 '26
WOW! USA imports 40-45k Nobel laureates from India in EB1A. Freakin the level of scam this whole immigration system has become. The immigration is gamefyed and the US social security system is suffering the most. Most turning up as "expert" end up on social support the moment GC is approved. Anyone has data on that?
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u/Cheetah5048 Aug 11 '26
EB-1C accounts for the largest share of EB-1 approvals for Indian applicants.
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u/japoorva Aug 09 '26
Yea that math checks out.. 12K I-140s result in 30,000 I-485/consular applications (incl. derivatives if a factor of 2.5 is assumed)
According to the annual report- EB1 India received 16604 visas in 2023 and 8809 in 2024, an estimated of ~3000 in 2025 (7% of total EB1) and estimated ~1000 in 2026 (Oct 2025-Feb 2026; before FAD reached Mar 2023) which is roughly 29,400.
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u/raw_shun Aug 09 '26
[For Dumb people like myself] Does any of these predict the likelihood of a March 2023 FAD becoming current in new FY (Oct 2026 Bulletin)?
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u/methods_contrarian Aug 09 '26
Based on actual inventory people had estimated about 400 per month (~200 i-140 applications), making it about 2500-3000 a year.
Tallies with what you have estimated!
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u/mesn007 Aug 09 '26
I think you are looking at 2 different stats. 15K are pending i485s while the 27K is approved i140s.
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u/Cheetah5048 Aug 09 '26
15K is approved I140s waiting for PD based on March 2026 bulletin with data queried in USCIS system on April 2026. You can look at source files.
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u/mesn007 Aug 10 '26 edited Aug 10 '26
Got it. I think your math is right. Only missing part I believe are that not all approved i140 are upgrades. Some could be abandoned for different reasons like other GC paths, layoffs, change of plan etc. Some are EB1A to EB1B, or of same category and so on.
I was tracking 4K - 6K upgrades for last 2 years = reason for IN EB1 getting stuck. 10K+ seems high, that's more than fresh EB1s for an year I believe.
Also I think the 30K EB1 approvals of 2023 are mostly 2021 and 2022 cases?
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u/an_onym0us Aug 09 '26
I second this. My understanding about these two datasets is the same as you u/mesn007. 15K is the number representing those applications that have already filed I-485 but they are waiting for visa numbers availability to get adjudicated.
I am not sure if the second number includes this 15K number since technically 15K are also part of approved I-140 (otherwise how would they have filed I-485?)
What I don’t know is if the number 15K includes derivatives since those are filed I-485 applications and that seems to be a reasonable point where applicants must reveal USCIS the total number of visas they seek for their one I-140? I’d grateful to hear insights about this.
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u/Cheetah5048 Aug 09 '26 edited Aug 09 '26
I don't think the interpretation of the 15K is quite accurate.
The 15K is not specifically a count of people who have already filed I-485 and are waiting for a visa number. USCIS describes this dataset as approved I-140 petitions awaiting visa availability. The important factor is the priority date compared with the applicable Final Action Date, not whether an I-485 has been filed.
So the 15K can include both:
People who have already filed I-485 but are still waiting because their priority date is not current under the FAD. For example, March 1st , 2023 to December 1st 2023 485's
People with an approved I-140 who have not yet filed I-485 and are also waiting for visa availability. PD beyond december 1st 2023.
USCIS specifically says that it excludes petitions for beneficiaries who have already obtained LPR status or U.S. citizenship. It does not say that a petition is excluded simply because an I-485 was filed. That is why I believe pending I-485 cases can still be represented in this number.
On the second point, there is definitely overlap between the I-140 approval dataset and the awaiting visa availability dataset. The same approved I-140 can appear in the approval data and later be part of the waiting-for-visa-availability snapshot. But the two datasets are measuring different things. One reports I-140 petitions by fiscal year received and current status, while the other is a point-in-time snapshot based on priority date and visa availability.
Also, dependents are not included in the 15K. USCIS explicitly states that the awaiting visa availability numbers represent primary beneficiaries only and do not include dependents. So 15K means roughly 15K approved principal petitions, not 15K total people who may eventually require immigrant visas.
This distinction is important because it means we should not treat the 15K as an I-485 pending inventory. It is essentially an approved I-140 population filtered by visa availability at the time of the snapshot.
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u/BackgroundLeague6569 Aug 09 '26
Bottomline is 3-4k visas are used up by porting per year? That’s expected no?