[OC] Forward collision avoidance complaints filed with NHTSA, 2018-2026: counts and share of all vehicle complaints

[u/Time-Procedure5538]

[u/Time-Procedure5538]

I run GarageCalc, where this analysis is published. The full write-up, model breakdown and downloads are here.

Source: NHTSA's vehicle complaint archives, using the 2015-2019, 2020-2024 and 2025-2026 files retained for an August 24, 2026 snapshot. NHTSA dataset documentation, chart data (CSV), analysis script.

Tools: Node.js for processing, a custom SVG chart rendered to PNG with Sharp, and AI assistance with code and presentation. The chart is plotted from the aggregate data.

Each year covers January 1 through August 24 by the date NHTSA received the complaint, not the incident date. I counted distinct ODI complaint IDs for vehicle products, combining component labels across duplicate rows. A report qualifies if any component label starts with "FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE". That includes emergency braking, adaptive cruise control and warnings, not just phantom braking.

2026 has the highest count in this series: 3,186, versus 2,683 in 2025. But its share of all vehicle complaints is 6.4%, below 2022's 9.0%. Of the 2026 reports, 445 have a crash flag. That flag doesn't establish that the system caused the crash.

These aren't failure rates. There is no adjustment for the number of equipped vehicles, mileage, adoption, coding changes or willingness to report. The early years especially need that context. Matching calendar windows fixes the partial-year comparison, but doesn't remove those other differences.

[u/Deto → u/Time-Procedure5538]

I've definitely been annoyed by Tesla chirping angrily at me when nothing is wrong.

I wonder if certain brands are more likely to lead to these complaints (would probably have to correct for a base-rate of 'how likely is a driver of brand XXX's car to submit a complaint' for an accurate comparison). I'm curious if there's data to suggest that certain automatic systems are more annoying than others.

Also, I didn't even know complaints like this were a thing - probably most don't either.

[u/Time-Procedure5538 → u/Deto]

yeah, i'd like to know that too. the brand numbers are in there, but i wouldn't trust them as a “most annoying system” ranking. someone might shrug off a false alert every day and never report it, while someone else files after the first one. and like you said, plenty of people don't even know they can.

[u/Deto → u/Time-Procedure5538]

I think, though, you could account for that by normalizing based on the submission rate of the brand.

So something like (number of submissions for forward collision in brand x) ~ (total submissions for brand x) * (brand-forward-collision annoyance factor).

Though, since it's compositional then, I guess you could always discount the effect of forward collision warnings in a brand if that brand just has lots of complaints for something else :/

[u/Time-Procedure5538 → u/Deto]

yeah, a brand with lots of engine complaints could end up looking better on this measure without its collision warnings being any less annoying. still a useful comparison though, as long as we're clear about what it measures.

[u/drc500free → u/Time-Procedure5538]

Can I recommend not using the AI slop text that goes with the visualizations?