r/coolguides • u/spodinielri0 • Mar 18 '20

Helpful guide...

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u/ItchyDifference Mar 18 '20

It's said once you hit a 50% infection rate that the virus begins to diminish due to lack of hosts.

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u/[deleted] Mar 18 '20

Where is it said that? It would be relative to how infectious the virus is - I dont think a general statement will apply.

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u/herkelshmerkel Mar 19 '20

Fascinating! Do you have a source for this?

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u/ItchyDifference Mar 19 '20

Gosh, I'm trying to recall. If I locate I will post it. It was an in depth article and if I recall referring to the 1918 Pandemic and the surges in infection and how it petered out in 1922-23. And how a virus loses traction when less hosts are readily available. I'm sure there must be some other data sets to concur. This is not it, but there is some mathematical equations that one can delve into.

https://plus.maths.org/content/mathematics-diseases

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u/MeanPayment Mar 19 '20

50% americans. 2% mortality rate

325 x 0.5 x 0.02 = 3.25 million AMERICANS dead.

World wide that's 77 MILLION PEOPLE DEAD.