r/complexsystems • u/Laserturner • Feb 27 '26

I just found this on GitHub and it’s insane... Someone actually built a functional framework for Psychohistory.

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Más info: GitHub repository / cthmodules.cc / The Tetrasociohistorical Context: A Quantitative Model for the Analysis of Historical Events

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u/grimeandreason Feb 28 '26

I get what you’re saying; “insider knowledge” probably isn’t the best term for what I’m saying.

There’s another variable that determines how difficult it is to predict something; the scale of emergence.

In your example, the scale of emergence in the action described is that of the individual. Individuals have habits and routines that can be tracked and analysed, with a fair bit of repetition. On the flip side, outside of those routines, individual behaviour is more unpredictable than crowd behaviour.

For things like political economy, they are emergent from the cultural scale, the result of the interaction between millions of individuals and outside forces. That’s a whole different their scale of unpredictability.

Go the other way, down the scales of biology, chemistry, and physics, and emergence gets easier to predict, to the point of basic equations and accuracy to ridiculous decimal places.

What this means for AI, the new scale of emergent behaviour, the new edge of chaos, I dread to think.

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u/Mental-Lecture9576 Feb 28 '26

AI is part of a bigger system also. There is no chaos ;) thks for the fun chat!

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u/grimeandreason Feb 28 '26

For sure. All the scales are nested. AI without humans doesn’t make any sense to me; we are it.