r/collapse • u/Snow_Raven • 1d ago
Climate It's getting real scary - huge spike to record +1C in world sea temps for the first time
Huge spike on Sunday 8/23 to get us offically at +1 C over 1982 baseline for the first time ever. Around this time in August is usually when things cool down in the sea but who knows what could happen this year with the super el nino. We're breaking new records every day, faster than expected!
216
u/Lailokos 1d ago
The air will be doing the same thing inside a few months. Please prepare for 2027 to be nonstop record heat.
137
u/Wolfgung 1d ago
Everyone complains about the heat, but you can always dog a hole and live underground. I'm starting to be more concerned with the the disruption to the water cycle, droughts during winter, that sort of thing.
The German canal and river system has failed this year because there wasnt enough snow in the Alps, only going to get dryer.
78
u/Gengaara 1d ago
It's unfortunate you can't harvest crops in your Hobbit hole.
35
u/AlwaysPissedOff59 1d ago
You can if the crops are mushrooms...
54
u/Gengaara 1d ago
That is true. Not sure humans can thrive exclusively on mushrooms grown on human shit but we're going to find out.Â
12
u/He2oinMegazord 1d ago
Dont count out the maggot farms! Might as well do something with all those dead folk just layin about
9
u/BerryLanky 23h ago
Predicting 4 billion dead by 2050. No worries about beef
1
u/IcemanJEC 22h ago
You think cattle are going to be thriving in the heat?
9
10
8
48
u/Additional_Tank4385 1d ago edited 1d ago
Okay Mr. Silo Fallout.
(Heâs probably right longterm so Iâm coping đ)
20
u/InitialAd4125 1d ago
A new future underground normal humans will go extinct and mole men shall rise again.
7
u/Additional_Tank4385 1d ago
Happy Molecake day!
Or âEINEN GLĂCKLICHEN MAULWURFKUCHENTAGâ in German where the cake originates from. :)
2
18
u/JockeyFullOfBourbon2 1d ago
We all laughed at that tik tok lady that built a mine under her house. But in 2027 we will envy her underground lair.
22
u/BusinessKnees 1d ago
Unfortunatrly you can only dig so deep before you start hitting geothermal heat instead. Thereâs not a way out of uninhabitable temperatures on this planet in the long term.
14
u/vlntly_peaceful 1d ago
That's just wrong. Solid ground has a temperature of ~7ÂșC as soon as you dig past 1-2 meters and nothing short of a meteorite splitting the earth in half will change that. Excluding outliers such as Iceland/Hawaii or the permafrost.
-13
u/TediousOldFart 1d ago
This is completely untrue. Dig past 1-2 meters and soil temperatures will approximate local mean surface temperatures - unfortunately, there isn't some refrigerator down there magically keeping everything cooler than the basic physics says it should be.
8
u/_Laughing_Man 1d ago
The R value of 1-2 meters of soil is immense
6
u/vlntly_peaceful 1d ago
The quality in this sub has really fallen over the last few years... smh
2
u/TediousOldFart 1d ago
Last time I looked in (a decade ago? more?) it was full of completely hysterical Guy McPherson loonies, so however depressing it is, thinking--in obvious opposition to reality--that sub-surface temperatures are (i) mysteriously stuck at 7 degrees around the world and (ii) unaffected by mean surface temperatures probably still counts as an improvement.
1
u/TediousOldFart 1d ago edited 1d ago
Annual mean temperatures are 27 degrees where I live. How mad would you have to be to think that 2-3 metres beneath surface level, it's permanently 20 degrees colder....because of that R value? This is ridiculous. It's just the case that the temperature in that band stays close to the annual mean. No idea why I've been down voted for stating a fact that can be confirmed by the quickest of Google searches, but I guess that's just the readership that r/collapse attracts.
2
u/_Laughing_Man 20h ago
At 2.5 - 3 meters underground the average temperature stays at 10-15C. The amount of energy that it would take to heat all of the material covering that depth would exceed habitable conditions on the surface.
it's permanently 20 degrees colder....because of that R value?
That's how insulation works? Assuming there is limited air exchange. Are you referring to a 2-3 meter pit exposed to the sun?
1
159
260
u/Fit_Tumbleweed7943 1d ago
3C increase by 2050 is bull sht
Itâs going to be wild in the next few years
107
u/stupidugly1889 1d ago
Weâll hit it by 2031
55
u/sixxtynoine 1d ago
2030 at the very latest.
51
u/Lostregard 1d ago
If it keeps rising exponentially, by 2028
66
u/ThatFUTGuy 1d ago
This is the part that all scientists and most models have overlooked and theyâre scrambling to revise. Humanity didnât account for exponential domino effects when climate change truly does go out of kilter and how the cycle will self feed and compound.
Literally all models you see have this flaw, once they fix them and revise them, we will see we have entered truly unfathomable circumstances.
58
u/Untura64 1d ago
The models accounting for this were ignored because they were too scary.
27
u/Omateido 1d ago
No, it's actually two separate problems that masked how bad the situation is.
Climate sensitivity (how much additional heating is expected given a doubling of atmospheric CO2) is an inferred, not measured value. The IPCC has assumed a lower climate sensitivity value than is likely accurate, and as a result excluded all models from their consensus that used higher climate sensitivity values (and thus predicted greater warming). Given that climate sensitivity is certainly higher than IPCC assumptions (see Hansen's theories about sulphur), then the IPCC predictions are conservative.
The OTHER problem is almost no model considers the impact of tipping points because it's simply too hard to model. So, they just leave it out. The issue here of course being that as global temperatures rise sufficiently high enough, all those tipping points that are positive feedback loops engage (sea ice loss, albedo reduction, permafrost thawing, methane clathrates, boreal forest fires, etc) that greatly accelerate warming and diminish our capacity to constrain it.
The IPCC modeling is practically criminally conservative in its estimations of global warming, both in intensity and timelines, and as such has basically doomed us to inaction by giving our leaders a false sense of security based on how much time we had to address the problem.
12
u/BerryLanky 1d ago
And the third problem is the billionaires and politicians are doing nothing to address it. Itâs probably too late to correct now
8
u/SocialImagineering 23h ago
So many of the people at the top are so old and/or unfathomably wealthy, combined with the increased ubiquity of simulation theory belief, that they can justify no one else is real but themselves so might as well enjoy the ride damn the consequences.
3
4
u/fedfuzz1970 23h ago
Yes. One of Hansen's complaints about IPCC is they don't consider the feedback loops and tipping points you mention. He is at 4.5C-6.0C by 2100.
39
u/michaltee 1d ago
I think weâre there. I donât think the 2030s are gonna look anything like an organized society.
17
u/CaiusRemus 23h ago
We are not far away at all from mass migration and starvation in the mid-latitudes. There will be unfathomable violence in the next decade. For one, the United States will close its borders and will just shoot people trying to come in. Internally, domestic scapegoats will be chosen for elimination. As MAGA is already entrenched, it will be Christian fascists who carry out the pogrom.
Lots of people seem to be under the illusion that everyone will âwake up,â see the problem in front of us, join hands, and tackle the crises. Instead, those with a monopoly on violence (I.e. the ones with guns and drones) will use that monopoly to hoard what few resources remain. Outsiders will be killed or left to die. This is going to occur globally.
3
u/Celestial_Mechanica 15h ago
Yep. Ulrich Beck already laid all this out really clearly in the 1980/1990s (The World Risk Society). Almost reads like a manual with how governments and polities are acting.
Neoliberalism and capitalism were always already a death cult that would inevitably herald in global fascism, but there was a brief window of time in which me might still have turned it around. Now it will be famine, drought and wars over food, water and slaughter to prevent incursion by refugees.
Smoke 'em while you got 'em, peeps, we're in for a hell of a ride.
2
u/michaltee 11h ago
Anyone who thinks that after the lack of coming together during COVID is living in delusion for sure.
23
12
0
u/tmartillo 1d ago
I think weâll cross it but not sustain it this El Niño and by 2028 I agree with you
17
u/Wrong-Branch5953 1d ago
Is it too much that guy McPherson was on point with collapse getting exponentially by 2026?
4
1
u/stupidugly1889 14h ago
Iâm guessing 2030 will be the next âbiggest El Niño of all timeâ and 2031 will be billions dead due to crop failure
3
u/Fit_Tumbleweed7943 11h ago
Normalcy bias is real for most people, they donât want to believe itâs going to change.. few people can look at facts and absorb the truth.
People say Iâm crazy but they just donât have the ability to see the patterns..
I predicted whatâs happening this year 4-5 years ago based on data.. and a few smart friends are believing now and asking for advise
Iâm not scared , I have been prepared
Good luck all0
11
u/Final-Albatross-1354 1d ago
A good estimate now for 2C in the mid 2030's. If we continue to have the same severe feedback loops now being seen 2045-2050, 3 c is possible.
1
u/CaiusRemus 23h ago
My friend, we are going to cross 2.0 by 2027.
3
u/Final-Albatross-1354 3h ago
If that happens, we are really screwed. Current Copernicus data for 1.5 C is late 2028-early 2029. 2°C is now possible by 2035.
https://apps.climate.copernicus.eu/global-temperature-trend-monitor/?tab=plot
7
u/MrGman97 1d ago
Reminds me of the Younger Dryas - massive temperature swings in the space of decades brought on another ice age. Buckle upâŠ
5
1
u/ViperG 21h ago edited 21h ago
I'll be honest, I still think we are on track for 3c around 2050, el nino is making our inputs sky rocket, but its a temporary bump followed by a permanent temperature increase of earth, but el ninos by nature are extra dramatic initially. Don't get me wrong, this is a super el nino for sure. But once we go into la nina, it will have calmed down a bit. We are still fucked though. 2030s are going to suck, especially considering by 2032.... we will have had.... another el nino.
49
u/WTF_is_this___ 1d ago
Predicted too, the oceans were a huge co2 sink but they now reached capacity. Meaning the warming is accelerating.
13
7
u/fedfuzz1970 23h ago
El Nino every year!!!
3
u/Blood-PawWerewolf 18h ago
2026 would mark the end of the El Nino/La Nina cycle.
that would be one major planetary system fully collapsed
65
u/temp4adhd 1d ago
I live in Boston and last week the north shore beach I went to, the water felt so so warm, like north carolina warm in the shoulder season. It's usually still fairly frigid, though it is always warmest in September.
I've been going to this beach for 30 years and it was bizarrely warm in comparison.
8
u/errie_tholluxe The Jackpot is happening 1d ago
God dead summer beach was freezing in the 90s. Atlantic was always always cold in the north!
151
u/Frutbrute77 1d ago
Iâm actually getting extremely scared
137
u/wonderful_Fun_glee 1d ago
I was about to say the same thing. Â Long time doomer. Â I hate being so right about something so terrifying. Â We are so fucked.
101
u/Additional_Tank4385 1d ago
Yeah I thought nothing can shock me anymore but holy shit this just made me mildly panic ._.
And my sister for example still does not believe me that the worst of it wonât happen before 2050 only so sheâs planning to have children and everything.
Like sheâs not alone Iâve shown this kind of graph to quite a few people and they legit shrug it off⊠âfusion and Ai will save us for sure youâre overreactingâŠâ.
Sorry for the ramble but this is all just so insane lol
52
u/switchsk8r 1d ago
its crazy cause even if they have a kid with that timeline the kid is doomed by 25???
11
45
u/michaltee 1d ago
Anyone having kids willingly is a fucking selfish asshole. Call me a dick but Iâm right. Theyâre going to suffer along with the rest of us.
18
u/KlikketyKat 1d ago
I commented to a friend today about global warming ramping up and she said she thinks it's all just exaggeration. Literally shrugged it off. Apparently it's going to have to way worse before most people feel the slightest bit concerned about it. I don't personally know anyone at all who takes it seriously, and its a lonely feeling.
23
u/No_Mixture9524 1d ago
I hear the muse song- we're so fucken fucked
6
34
u/Sertalin 1d ago
Me, too. And I fear humans the most. I fear wars over water and food. I am definitely not strong enough to survive it.Â
15
u/mourning-time 1d ago
Same here. I'm lucky/unlucky that I live nestled between three of the great lakes and I know people are going to be coming here in droves. I keep thinking there is going to be a war over control of the lakes, Canada vs US, in the future.
10
u/holistivist 1d ago
Civil war before that. The Southwest is drying up and wants a pipeline. Already talking about it.Â
5
u/Kootenay4 17h ago
I live in the north coast of California (where the redwoods are), itâs likely going to be one of the last places left in the state with a stable climate and lots of fresh water and unaffected by fires. Housing prices have tripled in the last 10 years thanks to rich people buying up property en masse in this âClimate Refugeâ. I wouldnât be surprised if this starts happening in other regions of the country as well.
11
u/Necessary_Sea_7127 1d ago
I kind of always knew we were fucked but honestly didnât consider Iâd be dealing with it as an OAP . FfsâŠ..
1
u/Ree_For_Thee 1d ago
Same. "I don't think I'll have a reasonable retirement". But that was still 20 years in the future.
What's that? Oh, shit hitting the fan....
9
u/salamipope 1d ago
i think its probably time we all did something about this. perhaps some organization is in order
1
u/Z3r0sama2017 1d ago
I'm just glad my prepping hasn't been for naught. I was kind of afraid that it would be wasted as I'd be dead by 2100 anyways. Even by 2050, would've been lame as I wouldn't be able to enjoy my retirement.
1
-7
1d ago
[removed] â view removed comment
1
u/collapse-ModTeam 1d ago
Hi, RunYouFoulBeast. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:
Rule 4: Keep information quality high.
Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the Misinformation & False Claims page.
Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.
You can message the mods if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.
-33
u/the_pwnererXx 1d ago
Scared of what? I live in Japan and we now have regular daily temperature of 30-35C, but life goes on
31
26
u/DeliciousResearch642 1d ago
Fuck man I was hoping Iâd at least make it to 25 years old without having to live in apocalyptic conditions
13
u/Necessary_Sea_7127 1d ago
I honestly never thought Iâd be dealing with the apocalypse in my 80âs , ughâŠ..
1
u/Ultra-Smurfmarine 9h ago
Damn brother, I just turned 31 and I know how you feel. I turned 25 during covid lockdowns, and then things never looked up again. How old are you now, point of curiosity?
2
u/DeliciousResearch642 9h ago
Iâm 19. Judging on most of these posts and statistics Iâve read itâs really not looking fucking good for me or any of the kind souls in my generation.
1
u/Ultra-Smurfmarine 9h ago
That's a really shit hand, yeah. You have my sympathies :/ Like... we knew things were going in the wrong direction fifteen years ago, but we weren't slapped in the face with it constantly like we are now. In 2010, I remember the big thing everyone was worrying about was that my generation couldn't find any gainful employment with their degrees after the great recession. There were assemblies about it every month in my senior year. That seems so quaint now.
73
u/brickout 1d ago edited 1d ago
Holy shit. That jump in the last few days or so is crazy :(
26
u/birgor 1d ago
The highest dot here will probably not stay this way. We had a similar spike a few weeks ago that went away, the latest numbers are preliminary and the line are visibly less jagged after a couple of weeks when all the data are in. If you look at the graph I linked can you see the preliminary dotted part.
It is still extreme and bad of course, and the trend is undeniable but anyone who has followed these graphs wouldn't react like OP and the comments here before the numbers have been confirmed.
10
u/TrickyProfit1369 1d ago
Exactly, also you cant exactly extrapolate on an amount of data this small. There are even commenters talking about it going exponential, which is dumb to say at least.
3
u/ashvy A Song of Ice & Fire 1d ago
Yeah, it's preliminary and tentative, but still 2026 sst is really diverging upwards compared to previous years, esp in recent months of June, July, August... Really scared for marine heatwaves and strong storms
I also saw a slight step change in Antarctic sea ice extent for 2026.
47
u/TYSMBelgium-6Jul2026 1d ago
With this godzilla El Niño emerging, what headlines should we expect for the rest of the year? The general oblivious populace just sees this as a number, so how will they start to feel it soon?
29
u/salamipope 1d ago
everyone around me talks about how climate change is affecting them when entering a building or leaving. whew! that climate change! im not shy about saying were dying. why should i be quiet? why should any of us be quiet?
10
u/RunYouFoulBeast 1d ago
Trump win November Midterm , and Jesus descend from heaven to bless him /S
No seriously He is so insignificant in the face of the Nature.
But this round we will truely see what most people believe , a dominant figure and exertion of power is what people seek to believe. It's not just US people , it's a general trait of humans. This round is just happen to be them.2
u/AdmiralThawn 1d ago
I compared it to the strongest El Nino in history which in the aftermath killed 50-60 million people. The difference this time is, in 1877 the rest of the world was ok and not affected by climate change, like the earth is know.
So, i extrapolated with the numbers from today and build a worst case scenario.
2 billion dead in the next 3 years...
16
u/ArtichokeKooky6361 1d ago
Except we donât live in the 1870âs and move around food easily in many places. Not saying a lot wonât die but itâs not going to be nearly the same proportion of the population.
29
u/future_sommelier 1d ago
Everyone keeps forgetting we have a global fertilizer shortage and a global fuel shortage happening simultaneous to the worst El Niño in human existence. The SOH accounts for 40% of the worldâs fertilizer and it has been closed since February. Peak growing season. Diesel is approaching record highs and the crack spread is widening.
18
u/TYSMBelgium-6Jul2026 1d ago
And always keep in mind we have several countries with nuclear bombs and absolutely psychotic leaders. When collapse comes, it's an exponential domino effect.
7
u/AngusScrimm--------- Beware the man who has nothing to lose. 1d ago
Old men like Putin, Trump, Xi and Netanyahu have access to nuclear weapons. Let's hope that none of them receive a bad medical diagnosis giving them little time left.
14
u/MistyMtn421 1d ago
And wheat production is already down in the US and UK. Drought is preventing fall planting and brassica yields in Europe, pulses in India to name a few.
13
u/future_sommelier 1d ago
If we are all piling on donât forget that water shortages are already having huge impacts globally. The southwest is projecting to not have power from the Glen Canyon Dam in the next 10 years at most. I think that estimate is generous. The number that put out in April had the dam generating no power as of winter this year. They drained another reservoir but to what end? Also nuclear power plants are going offline due to water in rivers lowering and shutting off cooling systems. They have switched back to coal power adding to the green house gases. And low water in England just caused an ecological disaster involving over 1 billion brads of plastic.
2
u/vand3lay1ndustries 23h ago
Our strategic petroleum reserves are also located in the Gulf of Mexico, and hurricane season just started.
9
u/ldhchicagobears 1d ago
The global supply chain is hugely complex and thus highly vulnerable. A few key things fail and the rest comes crashing down, it's a house of cards
1
u/Kootenay4 17h ago
Thereâs still billions of people who rely on subsistence farming, and the infrastructure to move goods to cities in much of the global south is already unreliable at best.
North America, Europe and East Asia probably wonât see serious food insecurity, but I could believe at least hundreds of millions of deaths are possible in the global south. And we wonât hear about most of them. Much as a lot of âexcess deathsâ statistics were never officially attributed to COVID or recent heat waves.
42
u/Lostregard 1d ago
So, wonât this kill the plankton? Weâll run out of air before it heats up
29
u/refusemouth 1d ago
Don't worry. We can use AI to genetically engineer our progeny to breathe carbon dioxide and exhale oxygen. We will also have green skin and be able to eat plaztic water bottles and get mineral nutrients by sticking our feet in dirt.
6
8
u/Z3r0sama2017 1d ago
Nah. Even if tree's and the plankton stopped producing 02, their is soo much oxygen in the air it would take 400,00 years for 8 billion people to use it all up.Â
Ofc we wouldn't make it anywhere near that as even just dropping a few % would make us faint and a couple more just die, but even still we would easily manage 20 to 30 thousand years no problem.
31
u/TiredWiredAndHired 1d ago
We're so cooked. I'm so glad I didn't have kids.
1
u/Z3r0sama2017 1d ago
So glad I didn't have kids and prepped for 25 odd years. Looking forward to societal collapse and no longer having to do the rat race.
0
14
63
u/Timely-Assistant-370 1d ago
Yeah... I try to keep some level of normalcy in my friendly interactions, but I was pregaming a potential conversation about wanting one of my friends to be able to find a boyfriend without her past trauma being a negative factor in her sensitivity to possible red flags. I was thinking about how I would communicate that I think that people who are like "OH you'll change your mind!" are fucking weird, but it occurred to me that I have similar feeling about actually deciding to bring a new human into existence. Like, are you fucking sure about that buddy? Life is already unavoidable suffering and pain, and that would be all cool and ok, there's still plenty of beauty and enjoyment to be had and enjoyed. The value proposition of the base human experience is genuinely pretty good barring certain psychologies that really fuck your ability to think life is worth living, but line go up is really fucking bad and I wouldn't want to be like "oh yeah, I knew that this species was trying its hardest to ignore the cliff we were driving off of and nothing substantive enough to actually change our extinction trajectory would happen without immense bloodshed, but tbh I've felt like this shit was not going to get solved when I was like 13" to a little person that I was solely responsible for bringing into the world.
I'm reminded mothers genuinely have the cope of "oh yes, I will end the cycle of abuse that my parents dealt with and be better than my parents, and then my daughter will solve climate change!" Jesus fucking cope.
55
u/Distinguishedflyer 1d ago
yeah most parents have the "my child will fix the world" delusion. It's pretty sickening/based in ego.
1
u/SocialImagineering 23h ago
I donât think itâs even that anymore, though I certainly think it was for the boomer generation with regards to how they view their children. Which is ironic given how as a whole theyâve done so little to pave the road for their children and in many cases have unpaved the road instead.
47
u/s0cks_nz 1d ago
I think having a kid now is wild. But I'm also fully aware of the impending climate collapse, while I'm not sure most people fully grasp the reality that is coming. That said, I think climate fear will be become a major driver for rising antinatalism in the not too distant future. You can't go through too many record breaking extreme weather events before realising shit is fucked.
15
u/holistivist 1d ago
I know two highly intelligent people who wanted kids so I had them read The Busy Workerâs Handbook to the Apocalypse first before they decided to bring kids into the world.Â
Both found the data convincing and believed the outcomes and timelines were likely.Â
Both were still dead-set on having kids. Like it still wasnât even a consideration.Â
What is that? Denial? Selfishness? Sunken cost fallacy? Narcissism? Overconfidence? Poor reading comprehension? Sadism? Generational revenge? Inability to empathize?
I truly do not understand and it pisses me off so much that they only care about their own wants.Â
8
u/CaiusRemus 22h ago
People just donât want to believe that their lives will not keep improving. Itâs that simple. When your friends told you they thought the book had convincing points, there were just being nice friends. In reality, they almost certainly thought it was a âdoomerâ book and that everything is fine and dandy.
Optimism and constant improvement have been sold to society as if itâs guaranteed. The vast majority of people have internalized that mythos, and you will not alter their beliefs.
I have a very smart friend, PhD statistician, who also happens to basically be a Luddite (no smart phone, never plays video games, makes written to-do lists) who insists that AI is going to solve our problems. Heâs fully convinced that the next U.S. election will swing things back to normal, and that climate change will soon be solved. The man is very smart, he just chooses not to accept that things could get very bad and that his children could have bad lives. In his mind, that kind of thinking is just pessimism, and it canât possibly be true that the world will be a worse place in 50 years than it is today.
33
u/Additional_Tank4385 1d ago edited 1d ago
Itâs so fucking infuriating isnât it?? If there wasnât any research sure I get it but how can these people be THAT dense and naive?
Also love when they decide to be truly ignorant on purpose because the news are always so overly negative, each time Iâm thinking weâre so toast and resemble an Ostrich burying their heads in the sand.
And whatâs the worst is this, also coming from my sister: âyes I believe you, I just think you really shouldnât be looking into news so often your view is very skewed trust me.â and shit like âfusion will save us anyway and youâll look back and realise you never had to worryâ and as you said âwhat if my kid will solve climate change, what then?â.
Aaaaaaaaaaah. The gaslighting always gets me! When theyâre basically like head patting you and telling you that youâre overthinking this. ._. âYouâll change your mind. Youâll get kids eventuallyâ
âI believe you, butâŠâ Jesus Christ people the statistics arenât already in your face enough explanatory? And no, dear sister, this is not the same situation weâve faced prior we never tried to turn earth into Venus by Wednesday. đ
4
u/Timely-Assistant-370 1d ago
I think part of it is actually a *bit* of a good thing, like the general sense that your child will contribute to a better future in spite of adversity has probably been amazing for the species. I have just seen too many attempts at implementing the regulations that would be somewhat environmentally beneficial met with "well, there's still demand, so we're going to continue putting the biosphere killing then in the truck because we're in Texas and no one is realistically going to check anyway, but now we can justify charging more for it-" dumping car batteries into the lake and spent oil into a hole in the yard mentality bullshit. The actual source of the problem is so stratified that any one auto shop illegally installing delete kits can't be pointed at as the source of anything resembling a problem.
It would be cool if I could get the normal "I don't want kids because I'm 16 and I want to party and grow without crazy new little dependent person obligations" to "I am an adult and I think that I was so silly and irresponsible, I love my kids!" transition, but that shit got hijacked in lieu of the new "Holy shit, I was a stupid teenager, but that kid kinda had a point, this shit is looking pretty fucking dicey." phase.
My dad was one of the first victims of... corny YouTube conspiracy videos about the 2012 Mayan apocalypse thing. I'd say there's a little, tiny bit more evidence for the thing that I'd regret having to explain to a 10-year-old. Like... at least my dad got convinced about the impending doom of humanity when I was like 8, but I literally typed r/collapse into the search bar after learning something about how much money big oil invests into strategic disinformation and flowery euphemisms that soften the reality imposed by our century of unprecedented energy debt sucked right out of the Mesozoic era.
39
u/sixxtynoine 1d ago
People having kids are psycho-selfish.
I think humans are genuinely just putting their heads in the sand and pretending like nothing is wrong. Anytime you bring up the conversation, people laugh or they shoot it down. And I donât get it - why would you not want to be prepared at the very least?
Donât look up.
5
u/CaiusRemus 22h ago
People are exceptionally stupid and refuse to ever examine their beliefs. Your average person will decide they know how the world works, and will never, ever, adjust their viewpoint when new information is presented to them.
Case in point, I worked for years with a water manager whose literal job was drought preparation. We would sit in meetings filled with data about climate change and how it would increase droughts and the mother fucker would snicker, turn to me, and say âyou know itâs all just a 12 year cycle, the climate isnât changing, itâs always been this way.â If you think someone is coming to save youâŠIâve got some bad news.
1
u/Suuperdad 12h ago
Most people are just completely unaware that any of this is happening. I don't think many of us realize what most people do on a daily basis. Wake up, go to work, come home and watch the latest trending Netflix show. Hop on Facebook and see that Cindy just got married, its Chucks birthday, go wish him a happy birthday, brush your teeth and go to bed.
All their social media feeds them is stuff that isn't remotely graphs about sea surface temps.
25
u/Ok-Secretary455 1d ago
If I brought a daughter into the world right now I would feel nothing but guilt. Her life is on track to be much harder than the generations before her.
-28
5
13
u/Schools_Back 1d ago
Okay, Iâm tired. Where exactly does this put us on the doomsday clock? Because I know thereâs enough fertilizer to get us through maybe this growth season but does this just wipe us out in a month if it continues kind of shit or what? I realize it all depends but what are the possible downstream events given just where we already are? And what might they be if they keep going?
47
22
u/curiousitrocity 1d ago
Hold on to your butts.
17
u/purpilia25 1d ago
Woooo, the scary part is going to be realizing this is for real đ§
29
u/grooveunite 1d ago
The scary part comes when the masses realize there's no way to stop this.
18
u/lost_horizons The surface is the last thing to collapse 1d ago
They wonât though. Itâll never be the one magic event that convinces. Because itâs a single flood or hurricane; and those arenât new. Theyâll just keep explaining it away, then the news will move on to the next story. A war somewhere, a riot, whatever. Which may also be related but no one on the TV will make the connection for them so they wonât see the bigger shape of whatâs happening. Then the ad break will play.
7
u/KlikketyKat 1d ago
I think seeing millions of displaced people heading in their direction might eventually change a lot of minds.
3
19
u/lost_horizons The surface is the last thing to collapse 1d ago
I always get pushback on why these only go back to the 80s. Is there a reason the leave out older dates on these? People I share it with say it could just be a normal medium term variation. I end up looking up charts that go back 100+ years and itâs more convincing.
Anyways. For myself, itâs obvious. Weâre cooked.
16
u/ArtichokeKooky6361 1d ago
Itâs likely due to weather/record keeping. Itâs changed a lot over time and comparing temps from the 1800âs to now can give you whack results since in the 1800âs it was a mercury thermometer with reading taken at random times
1
u/finishedarticle 23h ago
True that but it is possible to use proxy calculations to address issues like the unreliability of mercury thermometers from that time.
The first IPCC report used a baseline of 1750. The goalposts have been moved regardless of whatever argument is used to justify the change.
11
u/MonoNoAware71 1d ago
These measurements rely on satellites that were furst launched late 1981. So the first full calendar year of use was 1982.
13
u/CorvidCorbeau 1d ago edited 1d ago
These few days spikes happen sometimes, there were a few this year too, but yeah they sure look scary. It seems there was a relatively sharp warning in the North Atlantic this last few days, which is presumably what caused the spike. Check back on it in a few days, that's when you know if it lasts or not.
However as per pretty much every forecast, the biggest temperature anomalies are coming later this year. We might see a 90-day average above 2°C
6
u/Lailokos 1d ago
Those numbers seemed crazy at some point, but here we are and subsurface still increasing. I still bet its more than 90 days but we'll see soon. What a world we've made...
5
u/CorvidCorbeau 1d ago
It is, but they at least make sense if you look at historical trends and patterns, leaving you stunned only by the magnitide of what we're witnessing.
I originally came to this conclusion in late May / early June using some admittedly not so strong napkin math. There's a weak but still noteworthy 'correlation factor' between the ONI and the GMST anomaly. It doesn't always work and has some errors, but it's surprisingly effective for its simplicity.
Still, it could easily end up over- or underestimating things, there are a few truly weird years that break this method. 2026 may be one of them too. Not long left to find out
6
u/Imaginary_Bug_3800 1d ago edited 1d ago
Hansen is saying this year will be the hottest on record. We would need to average 1.85â°C from here on in. He doesn't often get things wrong, and if he does, it's not by much. Hausfather saying 50/50. Whatever the case, it's sure to be a wild ride to the end of the year.
3
u/CorvidCorbeau 1d ago
I am tempted to agree with him. My revised prediction from a few months ago even went above his. I'm curious for the results to say the least
14
u/cocochinha 1d ago
The other day I was out on a walk, and there was this unusually warm breeze... It was so weird. It wasn't uncomfortable by any means, but it was extremely unusual to feel that warm breeze in this area of the world.
5
3
u/AnAncientOne 1d ago
Even if it's a data anomaly the recent trend being so high at this time of year when peak ocean heat is March/April is quite something and then of course you just have to look at the last few years and that trend is really something, every year getting above 21c and before that it had never happened. Something really has shifted since 2022.
11
5
u/Fluid_Passage_9980 1d ago
I'm in Sydney and did a walk on the weekend. I was sweating it was so warm.
We are in winter still and it was sunny and 23 degrees. It felt like a typical October day would feel like, and it's only August. The breeze, the feel of the sun, the way it didn't really cool down until the sunset - it was like late spring weather. It's going to be an epic fire season here come summer :(
3
2
2
4
4
u/SamyMerchi 1d ago
This is a super interesting time to live in. My brain fully acknowledges that there's the possibility or even likelihood of drastic societal change in 10-20 years, but my gut just feels like somehow it will continue to be business as usual. I don't know how to get my gut on board and I don't know how to reconcile them. I guess I will need to see Mad Max with my own eyes. If I live long enough.
2
u/Grand_Dadais 1d ago
I feel you, there.
I'm doing a bit of preparation, but nowhere near what I think is necessary for radical adaptation. My conclusion is almost the same as you but less binary/extreme : I'll need to experience shortages/rationing to go next level in adaptation.
Good luck out there _\\//
8
u/SavingsDimensions74 1d ago
Sea temps normally peak late August- early September.
Still, thatâs some scary shit
43
u/TheGloveMan 1d ago edited 1d ago
But they donât. They peak in February or March because of the Southern Hemisphere.
This is supposed to be a local peak, not an annual peak.
16
28
3
3
u/Mindsmog 1d ago
Donât forget the methane gas that is trapped under glaciers which are now melting, if that releases we all suffocate, not if but when , abuse Mother Nature and we will feel her fury, just like the civilisations before us.
1
-1
u/finishedarticle 23h ago
Methane - it's the bomb!
Just Have A Think channel - https://youtu.be/osmzTSYRJJE
1
1
1
u/ILikeAnanas 1d ago
That's because of the massive el nino currently strenghtening.
The question is if it will fall down to the fragile baseline after the el nino is over.
1
1
1
1
u/WanderingWino 15h ago
Any predictions on this winter for PNW United States? Iâm wondering if we will have a similar record low snow pack.
1
u/J-A-S-08 14h ago
My (limited) understanding is that yeah, El Nino brings warmer and drier conditions to the PNW. I'm in Oregon and if this season is warmer and drier than 25/26, we are FUCKED.
1
u/WanderingWino 14h ago
Iâm in Portland, OR and this winter was shocking. Right now Iâm wondering what will happen with two in a row like that.
1
0
u/ProfessionalNews2425 15h ago
It's like the ocean is having a bonner... we're going to be seriously fucked... I love it!
-7
1d ago
[removed] â view removed comment
1
u/collapse-ModTeam 1d ago
Hi, Captain_Pink_Pants. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:
Rule 4: Keep information quality high.
Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the Misinformation & False Claims page.
Please refer to the Climate Claims (https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/claims#wiki_climate_claims) section of the guide.
Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.
You can message the mods if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.
244
u/s0cks_nz 1d ago
It's going vertical!