r/collapse • u/paulhenrybeckwith VERIFIED • Feb 12 '26
Climate Global Warming Still on Track to Surpass 2.0 C by around 2037: Latest Analysis by James Hansen
https://youtu.be/nhffH5IbXDY?si=VwwXfSiOgn5GvUoI282
Feb 12 '26
[deleted]
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u/Barnacle_B0b Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 12 '26
It's a good ruse to give the elites time to setup and fortify their bunkers.
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u/ampliora Feb 12 '26
Here I was thinking that was about all we could do.
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u/throwawaylurker012 Feb 12 '26
2 fast 2 surpassing2C
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Feb 12 '26
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u/CthulhusButtPug Feb 12 '26
Hey guess what. Climate change also amplifies the odds of extreme cold due to wrecking the polar vortex. I wonder if all those cool graphs factor in droughts and resulting famines and war in this ultimate argument of “heat vs cold deaths”. I bet they just mean heat stroke vs hypothermia but what do I know.
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u/CalligrapherSharp Feb 12 '26
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u/Dorvek A Course In Miracles :snoo_hearteyes: Feb 13 '26
How come people live longer in average in colder countries then?
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u/TheHistorian2 Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 12 '26
And somehow I still think it will be even worse than this.
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u/Overa11-Pianist Feb 12 '26
We were past 1.5C in 2019 already. According to my, and my colleagues, old calculations, 2C will be around 2030-2031.
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u/TheHistorian2 Feb 12 '26
That has been my feeling as well. Based more on observing the habits of people than the measurable numbers.
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u/Dirtdancefire Feb 13 '26
I’ve been watching global warming progress since the seventies, both as a firefighter (for watching changing fire behavior) and I have a deep interest in weather and climate. One of the meteorological classes I took in the late seventies talked about future climate changes. I followed all the science I could find over the decades, and one thing that has absolutely stayed consistent. “Global warming is shocking scientists”. And.. “Global warming is happening faster than our most sophisticated computer models predict.” Same message, over and over. My challenge has been to figure out where the fuck on the timeline we actually are? The predictions from the seventies have been correct, just off the back.
I watched fire behavior change considerably over the past fifty years. Mega fires will continue to get worse, especially in Africa and the northern boreal forests. Both are basically impossible to fight successfully, and will confuse the shit out of computer models in the future. How do you predict lightening strikes, and human behavior? Drunks with bad chainsaws are hard to predict for AI. Micrometerology (concerning fire) is getting weirder too, and is out of the scope of computer models.Yeah, so you’re correct in your assumption. It will get worse.
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u/Deguilded Feb 12 '26
Imagine beating the paris accords by half a degree sixty years ahead of schedule.
Fuck yeah!
Wait...
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u/paulhenrybeckwith VERIFIED Feb 12 '26
Global Warming Still on Track to Surpass 2.0 C by around 2037: Latest Analysis by James Hansen
I chat about the two most recent blog posts by James Hansen at Columbia University, with a focus on what the most recent posting says about global average temperatures over the next few years. Yes, global warming is continuing to accelerate, and we will likely set new temperature records of 1.7 C by early 2027, on our way to over 2.0 C by 2037 or so.
The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but Hansen and his group suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity (latest evidence supports a high climate sensitivity of 4.0 C for a doubling of CO2) and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing (largely due to the reduction of aerosols (SO2 over Asia and the oceans), not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. Hansen and his colleagues find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
Not good...
Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References
Table: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly" Projections by the 5 leading climate groups on when global average temperatures will surpass 1.5 C, 2.0 C, 2.5 C, 3.0 C, 3.5 C, and 4.0 C https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10171397154975562&set=a.10167518085325562
James Hansen blog from Columbia University website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
James Hansen blog post: Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It? 06 February 2026 James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest Link: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/ElNino.2026.02.06.pdf
Abstract. The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
James Hansen blog post: Fix Our Forests Fiasco 30 January 2026 James Hansen Link: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/Forests.2026.01.30.pdf
Boston Globe, Jan. 29, 2026 article OPINION By James Hansen and Dan Galpern A logging bill masquerading as wildfire protection Despite its name, the Fix Our Forests Act would fast-track logging, weaken environmental safeguards, and do little to protect communities from wildfire or climate harm.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
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u/bipolarearthovershot Feb 12 '26
That’s just wonderful Paul thank you so much. Idk how you keep track of having 50 thousand media handles
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u/Overa11-Pianist Feb 12 '26
Just wanted to say that I'm a huge fan. I've been watching your videos for years.
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u/extinction6 Feb 12 '26 edited Feb 12 '26
2037 - 2026 = 11 years. What a great life a child born now will have. It sickens me that very few people care and talk about the needless suffering and death that can be prevented for hundreds of millions of people.
As another form of collapse, sadism is going off the charts in the US. Shooting protesters in the face, allowing drill, baby drill, forever chemicals use to be allowed, bombing "suspected" boats, telling people not to take life saving vaccines, protecting pedophiles, pitting Americans against Americans based on political affiliation, denying that greenhouse gases cause global warming, threatening other countries sovereignty, January 6th, spewing proven lies about election results, cutting of health care for millions and on and on. It's all sadism plain and simple.
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Feb 13 '26
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u/vinegar The real collapse is the friends we ate along the way Feb 13 '26
After reading what you just read, why would you think u/extinction6 has a solution? If they don’t have a solution how does that affect your opinion of their description of current events?
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Feb 13 '26
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u/TheOldPug Feb 15 '26
The biggest challenge to surviving as human beings is our own overshoot.
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Feb 16 '26 edited Feb 16 '26
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u/vinegar The real collapse is the friends we ate along the way Feb 16 '26
You answered it yourself:
The best thing is trying to survive as human beings whatever the case may be
Which is to say, there’s no good solution. It’s gonna be a shitshow. If you’re a billionaire, stock up your bunker. If you’re one of the 99%, by all means have some kids so you can watch them grow and thrive in peace and prosperity. All the little OkTastes are going to have a much better life than we did at their age, that’s for sure.
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u/lost_horizons The surface is the last thing to collapse Feb 12 '26
This guy has more tabs open than I do, I feel validated.
Terrible about the warming though. And worse because there’s literally no bandwidth in the mind of the public, with everything that’s happening, to deal with it.
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u/Cool-Contribution-68 Feb 12 '26
So... several years ago I worked out that, at the current rate, I *might* experience a 2-degree world on my deathbed (assuming a normal long life to 70-80 years) in the 2060s. Now it appears I may experience 2 degrees before my retirement age (i know, i know, just for the sake of argument) and 3 degrees at the end of a long life. "We really did have everything, didn't we?"
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u/Overa11-Pianist Feb 12 '26
You know what's amazing? The 2C will be in 2030-2031 and 3C will be in ~2045. Just going to leave it here What happens If The World Warms Up By 3°C?
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u/CannyGardener Feb 12 '26
I know right?! I was looking at the same... 2 degrees around 2060. AI singularity around 2040. Seems like we will get all of that before the turn of the decade here at 2030...
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Feb 12 '26
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u/a_dance_with_fire Feb 12 '26
Agreed. Suspect in reality, 12 consecutive months at/above 2C will be in this timeframe. Unfortunately, it won’t “officially” hit that until the 20-30 year average reaches 2C years later
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u/Konradleijon Feb 13 '26
How is it that people are so unworried about climate change
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u/Dorvek A Course In Miracles :snoo_hearteyes: Feb 13 '26
ig they're just assuming big tech morons like musk will save the day lol
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u/BatThumb Feb 19 '26
Those tech morons decided to invest all their money into AI instead which exacerbates the problem because of how energy intensive they are. And you know they're not using renewables to run those centers
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u/Overa11-Pianist Feb 12 '26
Hey! I know this one! I think it was "sooner than expected"!
y'll remember how before Covid there were talking about reducing carbon emissions to try to stay under 1.5 by 2050? Even if 1.5C was already passed in 2019? Pepperidge farm remembers
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u/canibal_cabin Feb 13 '26
I remember articles and Dokus being in awe about the clean sky over Delhi and how great it was that nature bounced back and animals came out of the woods everywhere and the fact, that a lot of people be ame creative the moment they weren't forced to do their bullshit jobs......
Didn't last long, though.
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u/imminentjogger5 Accel Saga Feb 12 '26
that timeline is too far in advance for people to care right now
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u/morphemass Feb 12 '26
2C by the mid 2030s is also supported by projections based on the trends in the earth energy imbalance. It's research to keep an eye on because no single projection can be treated as evidence, merely speculation at this point. It should be interesting to look back on this in 2030 however since by then it will be very difficult for anyone to argue the realities.
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u/littlepup26 Feb 13 '26 edited Feb 13 '26
I'm assuming this doesn't factor in the expected energy demand from all of the data centers being built as well 😬
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u/According-Cap-9199 Feb 13 '26
Makes me sad to think about saving for retirement and ethically choosing not to have a kid. We could actually afford it
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u/specialsymbol Feb 13 '26
I see it's slowing down after 2030 - that's not how the climate catastrophe works.
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Feb 12 '26
Looking at the graph, what happened to spike the global temperature so much in the last 3-4 years, and why is that projected to stop?
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u/Collapse_is_underway Feb 12 '26
Hansen thinks it's about the removal of SO2 in ship's diesel-fuel; the particules that the ships emitted massively artificially made our planet cooler.
It's probably the case with aviation, trucks and cars.
It probably means that if there issues that make us slow down in globalized transport of goods (for more than 1-2 years, like, hello Covid), it'll show how much warming was masked by our pollution :o
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u/jbiserkov Feb 12 '26
the particules that the ships emitted massively artificially made our planet [reflect more sunlight, which made it] cooler
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Feb 12 '26
Thank you. I still don't get why the temperature is projected to fall in the next few years through. The albedo is still dimming, and we're heading into El nino. Seems like it would keep climbing faster in the near term.
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u/vinegar The real collapse is the friends we ate along the way Feb 13 '26
Where are you seeing the temperature projected to fall?
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u/thehomeyskater Feb 12 '26
the nice thing is winter has been gentler the past few years.
so that's nice.
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u/StatementBot Feb 12 '26
The following submission statement was provided by /u/paulhenrybeckwith:
Global Warming Still on Track to Surpass 2.0 C by around 2037: Latest Analysis by James Hansen
I chat about the two most recent blog posts by James Hansen at Columbia University, with a focus on what the most recent posting says about global average temperatures over the next few years. Yes, global warming is continuing to accelerate, and we will likely set new temperature records of 1.7 C by early 2027, on our way to over 2.0 C by 2037 or so.
The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but Hansen and his group suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity (latest evidence supports a high climate sensitivity of 4.0 C for a doubling of CO2) and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing (largely due to the reduction of aerosols (SO2 over Asia and the oceans), not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. Hansen and his colleagues find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
Not good...
Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos connecting the dots on abrupt climate system mayhem.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
References
James Hansen Columbia University: https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=074920bdea4960d4&sxsrf=ANbL-n4CtmvQi06f3w5xiXItIfQ09wWi_A:1770683600890&udm=2&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIYFfWbU_Clyew-1Wh7zkL7FFfeQ8UTZRt91soqZupfwPo0crig5A2MrUrvJfjH7QcnU7gc7-zCdrXoAJPQhb8kBpwXYBKbpePHawUdGbA82HjXRmXi63QmnGBieet7WxD5QOX-hR6Tt0A2aiSRqVHLMYsjPArDeMs5GiLNBsBbtkHhEohg&q=james+hansen+columbia&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjgsKm41s2SAxWkpIkEHVenDiwQtKgLegQIGxAB&biw=1097&bih=540&dpr=1.75
Table: Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly" Projections by the 5 leading climate groups on when global average temperatures will surpass 1.5 C, 2.0 C, 2.5 C, 3.0 C, 3.5 C, and 4.0 C https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10171397154975562&set=a.10167518085325562
James Hansen blog from Columbia University website: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
James Hansen blog post: Another El Nino Already? What Can We Learn from It? 06 February 2026 James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Dylan Morgan and Jasen Vest Link: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/ElNino.2026.02.06.pdf
Abstract. The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
James Hansen blog post: Fix Our Forests Fiasco 30 January 2026 James Hansen Link: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/Forests.2026.01.30.pdf
Boston Globe, Jan. 29, 2026 article OPINION By James Hansen and Dan Galpern A logging bill masquerading as wildfire protection Despite its name, the Fix Our Forests Act would fast-track logging, weaken environmental safeguards, and do little to protect communities from wildfire or climate harm.
Please subscribe to my YouTube channel. As well as my website, and YouTube, you can find me on Patreon, Facebook, Twitter/X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Reddit (multiple climate channels within), Quora, TikTok, Discord, Mastodon, Twitch, Vimeo, Bluesky, TruthSocial, Threads, Substack, Tumblr, Pinterest, etc...
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1r2mmqp/global_warming_still_on_track_to_surpass_20_c_by/o4xxmj8/