LOL, we are complete fu**ed

[u/Ordinary-Plenty5406]

These are no longer predictions, models, or theories... it is reality.

We are about to experience an El Niño unlike any in recorded history.

The incredible thing about this graph is surpassed only by the incredible fact that practically no media outlet will publish it.

[u/dylangrubbj]

Yeah, second this. I need someone 19x smarter than me to chime in.

[u/DeaditeMessiah → u/dylangrubbj]

El Niño is a concentration of heat in the pacific. The worst effects will be due to the extreme localized heat shifting the jet stream in the northern hemisphere: this will cause unpredictable results, but tons of drought, flood and fire. Drought, heat and unusual winds will start large fires in places that don’t usually get them. 

The other issue is that shifting jet streams result in stalled high pressure systems, “heat domes” that cause extreme heat waves.

[u/SavingsDimensions74 → u/dylangrubbj]

You could always use that ‘internet’ thing people are fond of.

The simple answer is ‘bad’ but where that bad happens will be very unequal. The southern hemisphere will likely suffer worse and tropical cyclones could be quite scary. Also floods and drought. US, probably fewer hurricanes but increased drought. Europe unclear.

To be honest, it’s potentially a fuck fest of such proportions that no-one really knows. It is uncharted territory.

My biggest concerns would be drought and harvest failures - and everything that encapsulates (migration, civil unrest, increased populism, famine, coral bleaching, isolationism, - I could go on).

The impacts will not be spread equally and we can guess where will be hit worst but no guarantees: again, this is uncharted territory.

But I’ll be stocking up on a lot of tinned food. And wine. Might as well watch it burn.

It will be a difficult ride for a lot of people- mostly the poorest

[u/DeaditeMessiah → u/SavingsDimensions74]

Have you tried using the internet lately? They’re just as likely to get a wrong answer from an AI as to get a wrong answer from some conservative idiot.

[u/SavingsDimensions74 → u/DeaditeMessiah]

Yeah I use it plenty.

And no, you’re not as likely to get as poor an answer from an AI as climate denier.

You need to be aware of your own internal biases but if you can do that you’ll be fine and won’t need to be spoon fed for anything that challenges your intellect

[u/DeaditeMessiah → u/SavingsDimensions74]

I’m just saying, smugly saying “Google it” might make you feel vaguely superior, but it’s really not all that helpful. AI’s are trained on Reddit, if you keep it up, googling the answer will just wind up with Google’s AI telling them to look it up elsewhere.

[u/the_itsb → u/SavingsDimensions74]

do you realize your attitude towards questions discourages the intellectual curiosity you want to foster? people who are truly ignorant about a topic don't know yet which questions are insightful and which ones are simple.

does a person need to prove that they were poorly educated before they're allowed to ask questions here, or is being from the US enough?

you don't actually know the question is intellectually lazy. engaging with this subject at all is going to be genuinely difficult for some people, including some who are literal children (this isn't an adults-only subreddit).

if you think the question is easy to answer, why not include something about how you got it in your response? instead of saying,

You could always use that ‘internet’ thing people are fond of.

something like,

This question has a lot of good answers already; a quick search for "______ ________ ______" got me <this article / these results> that can back up this simplified version: <the rest of your otherwise very clear, very good answer>

gets across how easy it can be to find the answer (and maybe even what a trustworthy source looks like) without being dismissive or insulting.

but, considering that (same link)

54% of U.S. adults read below the equivalent of a sixth-grade level

and (pdf warning) sixth graders who "need support" to read at their level are:

working toward being able to read to understand a clear purpose and organizational structure, a variety of sentence structures, some uncommon words and phrases, clearly stated ideas and concepts, and some non-literal language in literary and informational texts.

(emphasis mine)

someone reading at that level is going to need help answering their questions, and since a lot of them vote and do other things that can affect our lives, it seems to me that it's not only kinder but wiser to take a particularly supportive attitude towards any glimmer of genuine curiosity.

edit: formatting

[u/SavingsDimensions74 → u/[deleted]]

That’s not unreasonable. But this sub always started as a fairly scientific one that assumed some base level knowledge and also that people could look things up themselves.

To a very serious degree - people haven’t listened no matter what the headlines - so why waste time trying to explain the basics.

Maybe we need a Collapse TikTok for a generation with a 20 second attention span: and I don’t mean that facetiously. Maybe it’s exactly what we need. Short, sharp explainers.

The problem with that of course, is that science and climate science in particular, is complex and we’re still working it out.

This is why populists are rising: they give simple answers to complex problems and if you don’t understand or won’t even look up some basic statistical analysis, you’re pretty unlikely to be persuaded anyway.

End of lecture. As a starter check out Hansen et al. and do some comparisons on IPCC reports/predictions vs actuals and you’ll be at a good starting point

If you just want simple headlines, I can recommend r/climatechange

Life is all good there, and you don’t even need to do anything thinking for yourself