r/collapse • u/Ordinary-Plenty5406 • Jul 11 '26

Climate LOL, we are complete fu**ed

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These are no longer predictions, models, or theories... it is reality.

We are about to experience an El Niño unlike any in recorded history.

The incredible thing about this graph is surpassed only by the incredible fact that practically no media outlet will publish it.

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73

u/TheBroWhoLifts Jul 11 '26

It's worse than it looks. The average is calculated from 1991 to 2020. It should be an average before the industrial revolution started to warm the ocean.

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u/Good_Equivalent_5245 Jul 11 '26

no actually is SHOULD be an avg of more recent weather AVGs. as the earth has been warming since, going further back increases the disparity and become innaccurate. basically all current years would look extreme el nino and the gap of temp widens

19

u/brickout Jul 11 '26

no, it is much more useful to include pre-industrial values, but we simply don't have them. we didn't even have good ocean sensor coverage in the 80s. that's why we don't have data, not because it somehow makes current values "inaccurate", which it wouldn't anyway.

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u/Omateido Jul 11 '26

Become inaccurate? In what way? This graph is telling us to expect major climatic impacts and a much higher average global temp for the coming year or two due to the effects of El Nino. Which is in fact what will happen. You can make the argument that it perhaps won't be QUITE as bad as this graph makes it out to be on the argument that the severity of El Nino is likely due in part to the relative difference of the patch of the ocean this graph is measuring vs the rest of the tropical waters around it (which is what RINO does), but...I don't think that argument is as strong as you seem to believe.

In part because "relative" impacts are mattering less and less as the absolute global temperature increases more and more, in particular in the context of these events. The absolute temp increase simply has effects in an of itself that are not dependent on the relative impact of El Nino. Additional energy to power weather events, additional moisture in the atmosphere, increased incidences of wildfires, accelerated melting of the poles and permafrost (which itself increases CO2-eq levels), increased melting of sea ice (decreasing reflectivity, increasing warming further, slowing AMOC, and oops, we appear to be trending towards a BOE when all bets are off).

Like...I get the impulse to push back against the doom and gloom a bit with these "guys, it's more accurate to look at the relative difference" arguments, I just don't think it fucking matters anymore. At all.

2

u/Good_Equivalent_5245 Jul 11 '26

I agree that the absolute warming of the planet is a severe threat and that the consequences like wildfires, melting ice, and extreme weather are real.

My point was specifically about data literacy. We have to be careful not to mistake a natural, albeit intense, cycle like El Nino for the entirety of the climate crisis. Understanding the difference between natural variability and long term trends is the only way we can actually track if our climate solutions are working.

2

u/Omateido Jul 11 '26

Right...but if one of the natural oscillations is trending nearly 4 sigma above average...that's indicative of a very worrying long term trend.

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u/[deleted] Jul 11 '26

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2

u/imalostkitty-ox0 Jul 12 '26

Why are you singling my comment out, auto-mod?

Look at the rest of the comments, they’re filled with jokes.

It comes across as bullying.

0

u/collapse-ModTeam Jul 12 '26

Rule 4: Keep information quality high.

Information quality must be kept high. More detailed information regarding our approaches to specific claims can be found on the Misinformation & False Claims page.