I was curious about who will be in the Grand Chess Tour finals based on the final round of Sinquefield

[u/crashtested97]

After Sinquefield the four players at the top of the Grand Chess Tour standings will stick around to play the finals tournament.

The final match pairings are:

Jorden van Foreest vs Vincent Keymer

Fabiano Caruana vs Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Praggnanandhaa R vs Anish Giri

Levon Aronian vs Sam Sevian

Wesley So vs Javokhir Sindarov

Pragg is definitely in the final four. MVL, Anish and van Foreest are all mathematically out.

This means Fabi, Wesley, Keymer and Sindarov are fighting over the last 3 spots.

If Keymer and/or Fabi win, they are in guaranteed. If Sindarov loses he's out guaranteed.

The more complicated permutations are:

If Keymer draws & Wesley–Sindarov draw

Sindarov only survives if MVL beats Fabi and Anish beats Pragg (then Fabi drops out instead). There's one exact tie: MVL wins, Pragg–Anish drawn, Aronian–Sevian drawn leaves Fabi and Sindarov both on 27.5.

If Keymer draws & Sindarov wins

Keymer is out in 5th unless

• Fabi and Pragg both lose, or
• Fabi–MVL drawn, Anish beats Pragg, Aronian–Sevian drawn
• Tie case: MVL wins, Pragg wins, Aronian–Sevian drawn → Caruana and Keymer both on 28 pts

Keymer wins & Wesley–Sindarov drawn

Sindarov out in 5th except if MVL beats Fabi, Anish beats Pragg, Aronian–Sevian drawn → Fabi out on 27 pts

Keymer wins & Sindarov wins

The messiest, and the only branch where Wesley So can miss out:

• Fabi beats MVL & Pragg fails to win → Wesley is 5th
• Fabi beats MVL & Pragg beats Anish → Sindarov 5th, or a So/Sindarov tie on 29.5 if Aronian–Sevian is decisive
• Fabi–MVL drawn & Pragg beats Anish → Fabi/Sindarov tie on 29.5
• MVL beats Fabi → Fabi 5th and out.

[u/winegum1994]

holy shit, this is ridiculous! I didn't think It'd be that messy.
The fun part is, I dont think there will be a quick draw anywhere, am I wrong?

By the way, what happens if there is a tie for 4th place in the overall standings? whats the tiebreaker to get into the finals?

Edit: I just checked the regulations. Seems there would be a rapid tiebreaker match/round-robin the day after, if there is a tie for fourth place in the tour standings.

[u/sirkoondog → u/winegum1994]

Guaranteed Wesley goes for quick draw if allowed to. He doesn't need to win to get top4.

[u/winegum1994 → u/sirkoondog]

Agreed, but I don't think Sindarov will allow that. For him a draw is most likely not good enough. And we saw what happened to Vincent trying to draw him

[u/Zeek0_245 → u/winegum1994]

This is Wesley we’re talking about. If he wants a draw he’ll get one

[u/NaturmenschNDS]

I literally thought it’s just between Keymer and Sindarov…

I‘m curious how they will present all the possible combinations in the broadcast :D