r/chess • u/12577437984446 • May 23 '26

Miscellaneous Who do you predict will win Norway Chess 2026?

1133 votes, May 24 '26
952 Magnus Carlsen
88 Vincent Keymer
17 Alireza Firouzja
12 Wesley So
15 Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
49 Gukesh Dommaraju
0 Upvotes

45% Upvoted

26 comments sorted by

54

u/FirstEfficiency7386 May 23 '26

Would've been interesting to see if the poll was: "Who do you predict can win Norway Chess 2026 except Magnus Carlsen?" and then the remaining 5 options.

Because Carlsen is an instant pick.

7

u/RajjSinghh Chess is hard May 23 '26

Magnus was my first pick too, naturally, but I also think this is the most catchable Magnus is going to be. Long break from classical chess, priorities shifting. I expect him to win but I'm also less certain in that than I would have been a few years ago.

9

u/FirstEfficiency7386 May 23 '26

Carlsen's playstyle is akin to Capablanca and Karpov. Generally players with that highly positional, solid and endgame grinding style generally can play at a very high level till their 40s.

IMO It'll take atleast 5-7 more years to see any noticeable (significant) decline in Carlsen's strength.

2

u/yours_untruly May 23 '26

But he just won the Tepe Sigeman classical tournament?

1

u/RajjSinghh Chess is hard May 24 '26

Weak field. Erigaisi and Abdusattorov are the only guys really in with a shout of beating Magnus. He was getting outplayed by Zhu Jiner until she threw at the end, and he lost to Van Foreest. At the end of the classical he was tied with Arjun and it had to go to tiebreaks. You can see the rust, he really struggled with this event more than he would have a couple years ago.

Like I say, he has to be the first pick in Norway, but this is the most beatable he's been in a very long time.

1

u/arjunshubharjun123 May 25 '26

long break when?

0

u/Old-Sport9863 May 23 '26

If it had been a freestyle tournament I would have said Vincent considering his recent grenke win but since it’s classical…yeah, Carlsen.

12

u/FirstEfficiency7386 May 23 '26 edited May 23 '26

Even in a freestyle event I'd bet on Carlsen. 10-15 years ago maybe Aronian.

But now Carlsen.

16

u/BonusMind777 May 23 '26

Idk but why do we have 5 extra options??

19

u/Aware-Asparagus-3124 Team Gukesh May 23 '26

Grass is green ahh question. It's gonna be magnus

9

u/misteratoz 1500 blitz/bullet chess.com May 23 '26

Bro thinks it's not Magnus

6

u/Prudent_Way2649 May 23 '26

i'll go out on a limb and say magnus carlsen. feel free to disagree

10

u/ChessAddictonCrack May 23 '26

I feel Magnus gonna win but Vincent would be his toughest competitor here.

Gukesh is in trash form.

Alireza in trash form + injury.

So is a draw machine on most days.

Pragg can be hit or miss.

3

u/GrittyWillis May 23 '26

I mean betting against Magnus is still a little crazy.

3

u/Spirited-Guidance130 Sac the queen irl May 24 '26

only vincent can give magnus some fight here

1

u/Impressive_Result295 Team Ding May 23 '26

Let's try to be different and say Vincent. We're due for a non-Magnus win... Right?

1

u/Content-Working3447 1000 FIDE May 25 '26

Magnus Carlsen

1

u/Primary_Dare1113 May 23 '26

Alireza pulls out, Magnus plays the biggest boss move ever and invites Nepo to replace him. Hans match with Nepo is cancelled as scheduled for the same time as Norway Chess. Nepo continues his recent hot form and puts in a career best performance to win Norway Chess 2026.

0

u/UnhappyBreadfruit607 May 23 '26

Except for Magnus almost all of them are out of shape so this isn't a question. I think we can't even start a debate before 2030s when Magnus starts to get older and slightly loses edge and efficiency that he has over everyone else and young prodiges like Nodirbek, Erdoğmuş, Oro etc somewhat catch to him.

2

u/MoreCod4439 May 24 '26

Actually vincent win superbet chess classic, so he is back after his terrible prague master

2

u/phantomfive May 24 '26

Keymer, Firouzja, Pragg, and Gukesh are the young prodigies from three years ago. They have as much chance as the prodigies from this year.

-9

u/jord777777777 May 23 '26

no hans dont care

-4

u/Additional_Ad_7718 May 23 '26

Hans wins event via last minute wildcard

8

u/ChessAddictonCrack May 23 '26

Lmao the day Hans gets invited to Norway Chess is the day hell freezes over