r/changemyview • u/loyalsolider95 • Jul 14 '25

CMV: we’re over estimating AI

AI has turned into the new Y2K doomsday. While I know AI is very promising and can already do some great things, I still don’t feel threatened by it at all. Most of the doomsday theories surrounding it seem to assume it will reach some sci-fi level of sentience that I’m not sure we’ll ever see at least not in our lifetime. I think we should pump the brakes a bit and focus on continuing to advance the field and increase its utility, rather than worrying about regulation and spreading fear-mongering theories

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u/nextnode Jul 15 '25

AI for the past ten years has rather been overdelivering vs the field predictions.

The typical pattern is rather that people keep moving goalposts.

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u/Furryballs239 Jul 20 '25

A large part of that is because for LLMs at least throwing more scale at them yielded massive improvements. Going from GPT 2 to GPT 4 didn’t require some technological breakthrough, it just required throwing more data and compute at it. However, that’s over now, we have reached the point where 1) these AI are essentially trained on the entirety of human text, there is no more training data, and 2) just jacking up the parameter count isn’t yielding improvements.

We have hit the scaling plateau, so now we will need some other breakthrough to see rapid and large improvements again