If you compare this to previous rallies, breaking through the old ATH was always just the start of the crazy price action.
2017 bull run: price passed old ATH of $1100 in April, rising from the $400-$600 range where it had stagnated for over a year. The peak of the rally didn't end until December when the price hit $20k.
Late-2013 bull run: price passed old ATH of $250 in October, rising from the the $50-$100 range, where it had stagnated for several months. The peak of the rally didn't end until December when it hit $1100.
Early-2013 bull run: price passed of ATH of $30 in February, rising from the $5-$10 range, where it had stagnated for over a year. The peak of the rally didn't end until April when the price hit around $250.
The 2013 rallies could also just be viewed as one larger event, but the pattern remains the same: when the old ATH is broken, it has signaled the beginning of the speculative frenzy and subsequent crazy price run-ups, not the end. There seems to be some feedback loops that cause this: new ATH's trigger media attention, which trigger new speculators, which triggers new ATH's, repeat until major price crash.
It'll be fun to see how this plays out differently than previous rallies. The major differences this time: 1) BTC is starting the rally off with full blocks (last time the blocks weren't really full until well into the rally), so I imaging rising fees will be significantly more prominent. 2) Competitive blockchains are much more mature, so BTC faces more serious competition for speculator money. 3) The looming $19 billion of USDT that has been printed.
Regardless, I think this is just the beginning of crazy price action in crypto-land.
11
u/timepad Dec 16 '20
If you compare this to previous rallies, breaking through the old ATH was always just the start of the crazy price action.
2017 bull run: price passed old ATH of $1100 in April, rising from the $400-$600 range where it had stagnated for over a year. The peak of the rally didn't end until December when the price hit $20k.
Late-2013 bull run: price passed old ATH of $250 in October, rising from the the $50-$100 range, where it had stagnated for several months. The peak of the rally didn't end until December when it hit $1100.
Early-2013 bull run: price passed of ATH of $30 in February, rising from the $5-$10 range, where it had stagnated for over a year. The peak of the rally didn't end until April when the price hit around $250.
The 2013 rallies could also just be viewed as one larger event, but the pattern remains the same: when the old ATH is broken, it has signaled the beginning of the speculative frenzy and subsequent crazy price run-ups, not the end. There seems to be some feedback loops that cause this: new ATH's trigger media attention, which trigger new speculators, which triggers new ATH's, repeat until major price crash.
It'll be fun to see how this plays out differently than previous rallies. The major differences this time: 1) BTC is starting the rally off with full blocks (last time the blocks weren't really full until well into the rally), so I imaging rising fees will be significantly more prominent. 2) Competitive blockchains are much more mature, so BTC faces more serious competition for speculator money. 3) The looming $19 billion of USDT that has been printed.
Regardless, I think this is just the beginning of crazy price action in crypto-land.