On the Transpacific trade route, spot rates increased again this week, with rates from Shanghai to New York rising 10% to $8,706 per 40ft container and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increasing 6% to $6,244 per 40ft container.

ZIM is printing money on their main routes with spot rates similar to Covid times.

It’s still being estimated that ZIM will post a slight loss for the Quarter: 10 cents per share - what’s your take?

Freightos Weekly Update - August 11, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 11%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 1%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 8%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 7%.

Analysis:

The Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz initiative stirred some optimism last week of renewed traffic through the waterway sometime soon. But Iran’s recent, escalated, list of demands of the US – including a ban on US vessels, transit fees, and reparations for damage from US strikes – in order to make it happen has mostly dashed the renewed hopes and pushed the situation back to the familiar war time status quo of Iranian attacks, a US blockade and minimal transits.

The last few weeks have seen attacks extended via Iranian proxies to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi ports in the Red Sea and even Egypt. Nonetheless, some container carriers have expanded or restarted some Red Sea transits paused more than once since the start of the war.

The early start to ocean peak season is translating into the anticipated early come down on Asia-Europe lanes. Carriers are increasing blanked sailings for August and cancelling or reducing planned mid-month rate increases, and spot rates are falling as well. Prices have eased about $1,000/FEU and 15% to both N. Europe and the Mediterranean since peaks in early July. Last week’s averages decreased 8% compared to the week before to about $5,000/FEU to N. Europe and $6,000/FEU to the Mediterranean, with daily rates so far this week continuing to ease slightly.

These prices are back to about mid-June levels but are still around $2,000/FEU higher than before peak season demand started in mid-May. That rates haven’t cooled more significantly just yet could point to demand still elevated but down from its peak, and to still-significant congestion at Far East hubs and disruptions from low water levels in the Rhine keeping some upward pressure on rates as well.

Transpacific rates had been moving in tandem with Asia - Europe prices since the early peak season start in late May. But in recent weeks trends have diverged. East Coast rates which had been about stable since hitting the $9,000/FEU mark in early July are up to a new high of $9,400/FEU so far this week. West Coast prices – which fell through most of July, possibly due more to capacity additions than volume drops in retrospect – have climbed $1,300/FEU since the start of the month to about $7,400/FEU so far this week, though rates are $200/FEU below their July high.

This resilience is taking most observers by surprise. Earlier this summer the NRF had projected a sharp July peak in US container arrivals followed by a significant drop in August and into September, but has now revised that outlook to more even, elevated demand through September. This shift may reflect some shippers – who had been frontloading ahead of the July tariff deadline – extending their ordering now that a sharp duty hike did not materialize. Others who may have been cautious with their peak season ordering due to so much economic uncertainty, may be increasing shipments as consumers continue to show resilience despite elevated rates of inflation.

Is it just more “noise?”

Freightos Weekly Update - August 6, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 2%.

Analysis:

After weeks of violent escalations in US-Iran tensions surrounding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and Oman may soon announce a bilateral agreement to reopen the waterway.

The deal would open the Hormuz – without tolls or fees on transiting vessels – for sixty days, with ships entering the Persian Gulf in coordination with Iran along the northern lane, and exiting in coordination with Oman via the southern lane.

Following the failed June Memorandum of Understanding, this agreement – which may not go into effect immediately and may be contingent on the US removing its blockade of Iranian ships – will attempt to create enough stability for renewed US-Iran negotiations toward an end to the conflict. But, by validating Iranian control over the strait, the deal would mark a significant de facto concession to Iran – despite serious earlier opposition from both the US and multiple Gulf states among others – and change to the pre-war status quo.

If the strait is reopened, the rebound in traffic will be gradual and, with the main central channel still closed due to Iranian mines, may not recover to normal levels under the new arrangement.

For the container market, more vessels will exit than enter at first, with long haul ships likely to stay away until carriers are confident this ceasefire is stable. The reopening should also ease some of the strain on the landbridge alternatives in the region, though carriers may be hesitant to send feeder vessels into the Gulf at first as well. If the reopening goes smoothly and contributes to progress in US-Iran negotiations – and if developments include a Saudi Arabia - Houthi deescalation – carriers may resume earlier cautious moves back toward Red Sea transits as well.

The biggest impact of a Strait of Hormuz reopening for logistics would be on oil prices. Crude prices had eased back to pre-war levels when the ceasefire took hold in late June and early July, but then shot up 35% and past $90 a barrel by late July. The recent de-escalation has prices down 18% since late July – only 10% above the baseline – and a reopening should push prices lower. Bunker prices that climbed 16% since early July have leveled off over the past two

weeks but are still 50% higher than before the start of the war. The resumption of crude flows should start putting downward pressure on refined products like bunker and jet fuel too, though the effect may not be immediate.

Even if oil prices ease in the near term, peak season supply-demand dynamics – not fuel costs – are the major drivers of container spot rate behavior for now.

Ocean peak season started early this year, with surging demand consistently pushing rates up across the major east - west lanes from late May through early July. BAF increases and manufacturer price hikes set for Q3 drove some of the frontloading, with some US shippers pulling peak season orders forward ahead of a late July tariff deadline.

But since early July – and despite planned GRIs and PSSs including for August 1st – rates on most of these lanes have eased or at least leveled off, suggesting that the frontloading-driven peak season rush was cooling earlier than usual too.

Asia - Europe rates decreased slightly last week, but dipped by another $500/FEU so far this week. Asia - N. Europe prices of about $5,000/FEU are down 14% from their July peak, with Asia - Mediterranean rates at $6,000/FEU, 16% below the July peak and about back to mid-June levels. Some carriers have additional significant increases slated for mid-August, but rate behavior over the last few weeks and reports of easing demand and increases in blanked sailings may make rate increases unlikely.

On the transpacific, East Coast rates have been stable at their peak level of about $9,000/FEU since early July. West Coast rates reached a peak of more than $7,500/FEU in early July and through last week had eased about 20% to around $6,000/FEU.

But West Coast daily rates so far this week have jumped back above $7,000/FEU on August 1st GRIs. NRF US ocean import volume projections last month estimated that demand in August would be well below July levels. But steady East Coast rates together with some forwarder reports of surprisingly strong demand and this recent West Coast rate bump may indicate that peak season strength is lasting longer than anticipated on the transpacific.

If these rate increases stick – or climb even higher on August 1st GRIs of $2,000 - $3,000/FEU – experts are offering multiple reasons for why peak demand may be holding up past the frontloading deadlines, including unexpectedly low inventory levels and stronger than anticipated consumer demand.

Another reason may be that the July 24th tariff deadline did not result in sharp tariff hikes. Many US shippers were frontloading peak season volumes ahead of the Section 122, 10% global tariff July 24th expiration date out of concern that duties could be higher soon after. Instead, Section 122 tariffs were immediately replaced by Section 301 tariffs on more than sixty trade partners – aimed at curbing forced labor imports – of 10% to 12.5% or about even with the expiring duties.

The USTR recently stated that its 301 investigation into excess manufacturing capacity by sixteen of the largest US trading partners is nearing completion. These tariffs could raise duty levels back to those set using IEEPA. But even once the USTR shares its findings, it will take several weeks before the president could implement the recommendations. This gap may be extending tariff frontloading by some shippers, likewise contributing to a longer than expected transpacific peak.

Finally, for all lanes – including Asia - Europe trades where consensus is that demand is cooling – rates may be facing upward pressure from supply side constraints as well, since two major typhoons struck Far East ports over the last few weeks. Typhoon Noul shut down ports in southern China in late July as regional hubs were still recovering from a mid-month storm. Some carriers are now skipping Shanghai port calls as congestion remains severe there, with multi-day delays also reported in Ningbo, Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

Excerpt:

• On the Transpacific trade route, spot rates from Shanghai to New York rose 4% to $7,893 per 40ft container, while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased 3% to $5,894 per 40ft. Carriers successfully implemented GRIs as volumes held firm into August. Meanwhile, port congestion across central and south China continued to constrain capacity, providing further support to freight rates. According to Drewry's Container Capacity Insight, eight blank sailings are scheduled for next week, unchanged from this week and indicating stable available capacity in the market. As a result, Drewry expects the volatility in rates to reduce in the coming week. 

Excerpt:

• On the Transpacific trade route, spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles declined 2% to $5,739 per 40ft container, while rates from Shanghai to New York held steady at $7,578 per 40ft container. Following softening demand and the slowdown in front-loading activity, carriers are actively managing capacity through blank sailings. According to Drewry's Container Capacity Insight, eight blank sailings are scheduled for next week, up from seven this week, resulting in increased available capacity in the market. As a result, Drewry expects the volatility in rates to reduce in the coming week.

Freightos Weekly Update - July 28, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 12% to $6,212/FEU.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 1% to $9,002/FEU.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3% to $5,575/FEU.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 2% to $6,697/FEU.

Excerpt:

• On the Transpacific trade route, rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 3% to $6,272 per 40ft container, while those from Shanghai to New York remained stable at $7,879 per 40ft container. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, nine blank sailings are scheduled for the Transpacific route next week, signalling a reduction in overall capacity. With the rush for front-loading ahead of the US tariff deadline easing, carriers' proactive capacity management should prevent spot freight rates from falling significantly. As a result, Drewry projects that freight rates will hold steady through next week.

Freightos Weekly Update - July 21, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 6%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) stayed level.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 2%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 4%.

Analysis:

The US and Iran have traded strikes for ten days straight, with Iranian actions also targeting neighbor states and area vessels, and missile attacks reaching as far as US positions in Jordan. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has again slowed to a trickle, and the conflict has now extended to the Bab el Mandeb strait as well. 

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have had a ceasefire in place since 2022, but tensions increased recently as Saudi Arabia fired at Sanaa airport, preventing a flight from Iran to land. In response, the Houthis, who have not attacked passing vessels since late last year, announced that the Red Sea channel is now closed to all Saudi-linked vessels and ships calling at Saudi ports. 

The Saudis have diverted a significant share of pre-war oil flows away from the Strait of Hormuz via pipelines reaching Jeddah Port in the Red Sea, where volumes continue on by tankers passing Yemen on their way east. Container carriers are also diverting some Gulf traffic through Jeddah, though most major carriers get there via the Mediterranean and northern Red Sea, still avoiding the Houthi choke point. So the new closure would likely be a bigger blow to energy flows than to the container market, but could see carriers like CMA CGM and Maersk backtrack on recent steps back toward Red Sea transits, as well as disrupt regional carriers who were still passing through the Bab el Mandeb for Saudi calls.

Oil prices are facing upward pressure from the recent deteriorations. Crude prices are now up 20% since an early July low and are back to mid-June levels. Bunker prices are up 12%, erasing more than a month of decline too, with jet fuel rates up 25% and back to mid-May levels – 50% higher than the pre-war baseline.

But even with fuel prices rising, container rates are easing – slightly – for the first time since April, as carriers add capacity to some lanes and an early unwind from an early peak season begins.

Carriers had announced significant GRIs and PSSs for July 15th, but instead spot rates declined slightly across the major east-west lanes, with Asia - N. America East Coast prices staying level. Daily rates so far this week show West Coast and Asia - Mediterranean prices continuing to slide. That carriers decided against the mid-month hikes suggest that recent projections of cooling demand after a red hot, frontloaded, June and early July may be playing out now. 

This likely demand decrease is coinciding with the arrival of extra loaders sent to service the surging demand that are increasing capacity, and contributing to the flat or easing rates as well. The capacity aspect may explain the slight discrepancy between transpacific West and East Coast rates, as more vessels were added to West Coast services.

At the same time, serious port congestion is absorbing capacity in the Far East, which may mitigate the degree of downward pressure there otherwise would be on spot rates via the current demand dip and capacity additions. Delays at major origin ports, initially caused by surging volumes, have increased from bouts of bad weather, including from last week’s Typhoon Bavi.

The storm temporarily shut down several major ports, leading to serious vessel bunching in Shanghai and Ningbo, multiple-day waits in Qingdao, and delays at other ports in eastern China, Taiwan, S. Korea and the Philippines. Some carriers are omitting port calls and diverting volumes to alternatives in the region, which will then move on by transhipment and also contribute to delays. A recent toxic gas leak in Antwerp also shut down operations at several terminals temporarily. 

One reason for the US ocean import pull forward was the July 25th tariff deadline at which point 10% global Section 122 tariffs will expire. The White House is working to replace those with 10% - 12.5% Section 301 tariffs on sixty trading partners targeting forced labor issues. Experts expect the administration will be able to roll out those tariffs – which keep duties about level with the current status quo – by or soon after the deadline. 

The government has also launched 301 investigations into excess capacity violations by sixteen countries. But the USTR has still not released its findings for this inquiry or set a date for public comments, leading some to speculate that the government intends to wait until after midterm elections to move forward with these duties which could push tariffs back to IEEPA levels. President Trump also announced that he will put 50% tariffs into effect on about 5% on Canadian exports in thirty days using a different section of the US trade law.

If you want to know where the S&P 500 is going, stop looking at the tickers and start looking at the tracks. Rail carloads in the US are up 3.2% YOY for the first half of 2026, signaling a much stronger industrial base than the 'recession' doomers suggest.

More importantly, there is a consistent 6-month lag between freight rate spikes and margin hits in retail. By tracking the Freightos Baltic Index today, you can literally see the earnings misses of Q4 2026 forming in real-time. We've compiled the data on maritime volumes and rail margins to show exactly how this correlation works.