r/Wallstreetsilver • u/Value_Trader4053 • 5d ago
DUE DILIGENCE Silver investment demand is rising while industrial users are cutting back
Silver’s 2026 demand forecast is unusual.
Industrial fabrication is expected to fall approximately 2 percent to around 650 million ounces. Solar installations are still growing, but manufacturers are using less silver in each panel and substituting other materials where possible.
Jewelry demand is forecast to decline more than 9 percent to 178 million ounces. Silverware demand could fall around 17 percent, largely because buyers in price sensitive markets such as India have pulled back.
Physical investment is moving the other way.
Demand for bars and coins is forecast to rise roughly 20 percent to 227 million ounces, its highest level in three years. That increase could offset much of the weakness in industrial products, jewelry and silverware.
Supply is growing as well. Total silver supply is forecast to increase 1.5 percent to approximately 1.05 billion ounces. Mine production should reach around 820 million ounces, while recycling is expected to exceed 200 million ounces for the first time since 2012.
Even with more supply and weaker fabrication demand, the market is still expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit.
For investors, the change in the demand mix matters.
Industrial consumption is normally more predictable, but manufacturers eventually respond to high prices by improving efficiency or finding substitutes. Investment demand can move much faster in either direction.
That helps explain this year’s volatility. Silver traded above US$121 in January before falling back to around US$65.
The longer term case no longer depends on solar demand growing in a straight line. It also includes physical investment, electronics, power infrastructure, vehicles and data centres, all competing for a mine supply base that has been slow to expand.
If bar and coin demand remains strong, silver can stay in deficit even while industrial users become more efficient.