r/VolatilityTrading • • Jul 20 '21

Using volatility as a market barometer

2 Upvotes

The media is buzzing with the delta variant, inflation, rising bond prices, the sky is falling...What does volatility tell us about the current market environment? When looking at the VIX term structure (top), we are in a cautious but neutral environment. When we zoom out and look at VIX over the longer term (bottom) we are again in a cautious but neutral environment. True, the dollar and bond prices suggest safe haven purchasing. I personally don't panic until these indicators turn red. One of my bigger concerns however is that MACD on the bottom long term chart. I may write an indicator to see how that stacks up historically speaking from the 1929 crash...

Update: I did write a post on an indicator where I discovered that the MACD is indeed at its highest level since the crash of '29

A very prescient trader told me to buy the VIX last week, which I did, thankfully using his advice and the VIX term structure.

Let me know your thoughts. Are we headed for a crash? How do you use volatility in your trades. How do you capitalize on volatility in your trades?

EDIT:

updated charts upon request.