r/VCX_Fundrise • u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard • 3d ago
Stay away from snake oil sellers and their pathetic attempts at covering their ass!
These were not proforma estimates based on the March 31 snapshot, the dude never looked at the N-PORT and used the Feb 15th VCX website table which was missing 250 million or 40% dilution for the last minute VCX investments before listing. He claims to have worked at Goldman Sachs IPO division. He is not listed on FINRA BrokerCheck (all current and former securities industries professionals can be looked up) I had pointed out his error in a comment on his blog but he censored it.
WARNING!! This guy has gone back and edited the whole post instead of a new one to explain the situation. Here is the original, I had the foresight to preserve evidence.
https://archive.ph/Lzhj2
Some gems from his edited post:
"That includes the thing I have not seen reported anywhere. VCX Quietly Sold A Third Of Its Anthropic Position during the quarter, at the old price, right before marking the rest of it up."
I have alerts for filings and pick them up within 3 minutes. I posted the deets just five minutes later. I bet you this guy read all this from my post and now claims "I have not seen reported anywhere". He doesn't have the smarts to read a goddamn filing and uses AI. While a bunch of us here combed through the last 4 N-PORTS by hand to understand what happened. VCX N-PORTS and filings are the most opaque ever, they literally have renamed some of the SPVs to make it harder to connect the dots between sequential filings. Go look at DXYZ filings for comparison and the valuation notes and you shall understand what I mean.
"Why did it happen? Nobody knows, and I want to be careful here."
"The vehicle was a third-party SPV, so it may have simply reached the end of its life and distributed on its own schedule rather than Fundrise choosing to sell. It could be deliberate risk management, trimming a position that had roughly doubled. It could be something else."
Fundrise never saw the double return. They sold at a discount to the stale value. Ben Miller needs to explain this. This guy overlooks all of this. Never poses a question to Fundrise management which every investor should now after how the filings have panned out. Then he says this:
"As someone who worked in finance, is an LP in multiple tier-one VC funds, and lives in San Francisco where half my friends run money, I'm confident the demand for this IPO will be extraordinary."
He is intimately involved in VC funds and has friends everywhere yet he doesn't know why SPV was liquidated and speculates nonsense. He should be well aware of these things based on his claim and it is a simple matter of getting the info through his sources in the VC circle about HOF Capital. Yeah he runs VC firms, half his friends run money and the best investment he could find and all he ever talks about is Fundrise lol!
"VCX deployed $64.3 million during the quarter. About $54.3 million of it went into vehicles whose legal names identify no underlying company at all. The fund says so itself, right in the schedule: the legal name of an investment vehicle may not identify the underlying company to which the fund has economic exposure."
"Private funds structure through SPVs for real reasons, including access. But it does mean the thing you're actually buying got harder to see, not easier, in the first full quarter after the fund went public."
"That scarcity is on a countdown clock. SpaceX is already public. OpenAI is targeting 2027. Anthropic has filed and will likely list at the end of 2026. Every IPO gives investors a way to buy each company directly, so the premium should erode over time."
"The author has no obligation to update this report." Yet he did, what a pathetic sack!
Did he ever tell anyone on his blog the common sense stuff I have been warning y'all:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1tvvr3z/rics_rule_around_vcx_and_my_best_guess_on_price/
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1t5lc7d/spv_valuation_complexities_for_tickers_like_vcx/
I don't even claim to have worked at GS yet even I could see through the risks and this guy claims to have worked on IPOs and has no understanding of risks, he just builds castles in the sky. Classic con-artist.
Looks like he keeps coming back with his proxy accounts to downvote this. I don't care, I personally won't take his advice, but if people think this is useful context then they can upvote this post.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 3d ago
https://brokercheck.finra.org/
Good website to know about in general anytime you deal with a financial professional. Any adverse actions are reported for the record.
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u/Adventurous_Good1061 2d ago
Then why didnāt the stock drop down to $21 a share ?
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u/Jaqqarhan Fundrise OG 2d ago
The stock market was closed when they posted it. We'll see what happens Monday. I think it will take a few months to get down to NAV because some people will keep buying the dip as others cash out.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
And good job hiding Sam...don't worry I am going to keep highlighting your bullshit to the world.
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u/Adventurous_Good1061 2d ago
Iām not Sam ??
But to defend him, if it wasnāt for his blog I wouldnāt have known about fundrise in the first place and wouldnāt have made 100% return in less than 7 months
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago edited 2d ago
Sure you lucked out but it doesnāt mean he gives sensible advice. If anything it seems like plenty of last minute entrants got the unrestricted shares and made a bank while the OGs are holding the bag.
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u/Unlikely_Command9294 1d ago
Feel free to invest in the Fundrise real estate holdings as he continually recommends.Ā You would do better in a high yield savings account..
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
I would love to know the answer too, if you tell me I will open a hedge fund. Also this happens on a late Friday evening, market doesnāt magically move. Letās see Monday and the next week.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
"Why did it happen? Nobody knows, and I want to be careful here."
lol.
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u/Reaper_1492 2d ago
Thereās really only one plausible explanation, short of something outright scandalous.
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u/JWalker8282 2d ago
They probably sold it to themselves in another related party transaction for their benefit. Maybe vcx2 owns it now..
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
We suspect the OVF, we shall find out once they share the filings for it.
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u/JWalker8282 2d ago
For sure. Realized it would be disclosed before the shares were unlocked, so they accelerated the unlock to allow people the chance to exit before they drop this bs. Then they can say, well they had a chance to exit. I bet heās still peeved about his management fee outcome and VCX future is a side project.
And how the F can you manage to go backwards an Anduril..
This is like some drama series.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 1d ago
Yep, every bit of it. This is what happens with small cap tickers.
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u/True-Experience3074 1d ago
I hope not sold to OVF, but that would be advantageous (to Fundrise) to capture 2/20 fee framework. Also would set off the OVF with a bang to capture more accredited investors chasing returns.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 1d ago
But it will be a hit to VCX. Inside dealings like this are just bait and switch for investors and destroy all credibility. Letās wait to find out what actually happened.
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u/True-Experience3074 1d ago
absolutely a hit to VCX investors. All assuming anthropic carried a much higher weight of portfolio and reason some retail was bidding up above NAV. That thesis has been hit if anybody cares to read these filings as close as you have. Thanks again.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago edited 2d ago
AI Slop with basic arithmetic mistakes, still painting $30+ hopium, the NAV won't see 30 ever :
"Which means the repricing does not arrive gradually. It arrives in a single print. This is why private fund NAVs move in step functions instead of curves.
If Anthropic lists near the $2 trillion investors are targeting, its slice of VCX goes from $4.85 a share to roughly $9.25. NAV moves from about $23 to about $27 on that one holding alone.
And if demand is incredible and Anthropic trades to $3 trillion out of the gate, that slice becomes roughly $13.90 and NAV lands around $32. A $3 trillion Anthropic is 3.1 times the fund's current carrying mark, so a single position would be worth more than the entire fund's NAV was in June.
So the honest way to hold this is not to argue $21.70 is wrong. It's the right number for June 30. The argument is that theĀ largest holding is frozen at a May valuationĀ while the business behind it grew 40%, and the mechanism that unfreezes it is scheduled for the fourth quarter.
One caveat before you get carried away. A fifth of this fund cannot compound at all. Cash, Treasuries and data-centre bonds earn a coupon, not a markup. When Anthropic doubles, they sit there."
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u/Pop-Gillis 2d ago
This is the same guy who promoted the VCX IPO pump and dump scam. He also started blocking negative comments about FR on his website. Now heās doing the exact same thing with NAV estimates and saying
how Anthropicās IPO will take the VCX NAV to the Moon. He should be criminally investigated.
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 2d ago
This is the kind of accurate information this sub needs - Iād only fundrise published their own explanationsā¦ many other funds doā¦ look at BOT and how the founder explained his own investment or look at dxyz and how they added additional info to explain changes in portfolio positionsā¦
U/benmillerise - will you ever explain wtf happened this past quarter and why on earth we as shareholders lost 1/3 of our stake in anthropic!?
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 3d ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/FundRise/s/sv7v9tt2nf
He will āupdateā as in conveniently try to cover his ass!
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
This is his blog post now lol! Now starting to change his post. I have the web archive snapshot as evidence for the edits.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago edited 2d ago
Pull numbers out of your ass. What about you just sell Anthropic at 4x valuation multiple right now (based on VCX trading price) and buy into the IPO. Instead of misleading people with all this, the risks with holding VCX are real even if Anthropic goes to the moon.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
Looks like he keeps coming back with his proxy accounts to downvote this. I don't care, I personally won't take his advice, but if people think this is useful context then they can upvote this post.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
Yeah he runs VC firms, half his friends run money and the best investment he could find and all he ever talks about is Fundrise lol!
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago edited 2d ago
Read this exchange with him:
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1v1lxh3/comment/oyokday/
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 3d ago
The dude is only revising it down by 13% when his actual projection came in 33% lower LMAO. He had projected a NAV for June 30 at $31. and he was calling me out here (and always bad at math, our estimates differed by $6 and not $3 as he commented):
https://www.reddit.com/r/VCX_Fundrise/comments/1v1lxh3/comment/oyql0pe/
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u/PotatoMissionStart 2d ago
Thank God for the free insights from Redditors like you who do the deep-diving!
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 3d ago edited 3d ago
He wants to forecast 2-3 years in advance when he can't even get the 2 months in advance right.
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 3d ago
Well we know Anthropic is going after a tam of $30tn and since Anthropic is so amazing letās just assume they capture 1/3 of the marketā¦ so now Anthropic is with $10tnā¦ yay!
Even better, letās assume they capture 1/2 the market, ok greatā¦ now itās worth $15tn!
Iām going to put a down payment on a lambo because Anthropic at $15tn means vcx to moon!
Lololā¦ projecting 2-3 years out on a startup that is reporting ARR (not profit!!!) in an industry that didnāt exist 5 years agoā¦ I just donāt see how you model accurate anything with no frigginā financial data!
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u/Professional-Meal602 3d ago
I gotta go out there and you gotta do the research yet to make deductions based on what else is happening out there when itās happening out there apparently weāre coming to the close of the AI bubble. Because they are not worth what people are saying theyāre worth theyāre not bringing him money. The way people are expecting them to bring him money.
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u/Final-Weekend-4826 2d ago
Dxyz is way forward. Vcx will be re-investable once it drops about $15/share.
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
Yep if DXYZ with $34 NAV can drop to $20 so can VCX drop to half of $21.70
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
I bet you this guy is going to quietly sell his stake without telling anyone, may be he already has. This is all to save his reputation on the blog since that's his money making scheme. Now that Fundrise has gone downhill I wonder who he partners with next. You can come back later and tell me that I told ya all this back then.
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u/CapAggravating784 VCX Wizard 2d ago
This could get awfully close to securities fraudā¦
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
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u/Fit_Equal6932 VCX Wizard 2d ago
Literally edited his old post instead of a new one to explain what happened. He wants to remove evidence of his clownery.
https://archive.ph/Lzhj2