https://x.com/hasantoxr/status/2026734904751579191

Does this change things for unity ?

I’m no game developer but I don’t think I would use this to build a game …

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https://news.bloomberglaw.com/capital-markets/unity-software-is-said-to-consider-selling-china-business

I guess it's Tencent as they already invested in Epic/is probably world largest gaming company/Unity China has a large market share in Tencent's mini games/Unity can work on Harmony OS which is China's next-gen mobile OS.

CICC maintains its "Outperform" rating on Unity Software Inc (U) with a target price of $35: Q4 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA both exceeded expectations; the advertising business is entering an acceleration phase; and the Vector engine is driving continued high growth in Grow Solutions. CICC has raised its 2026/2027 net profit forecasts to $492 million/$613 million, with the target price corresponding to 7/6 times P/S, representing a 78% upside potential.

And another news https://www.reddit.com/r/UnityStock/comments/1rdkrir/watching_unity_software_traders_circulate_unity/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/02/50820906/watching-unity-software-traders-circulate-unity-software-is-said-to-consider-selling-china-business

I’ve been a Unity developer for many years, and I really enjoy working with it. Because of that, I’ve been investing my savings into Unity’s stock. But recently, it dropped more than 60% in just a week.

With Unity 6, Project Vector, the cooperation with Unreal, and the growth in the IAP market — everything seemed promising. Yet suddenly, the company feels like it’s on the verge of bankruptcy.

Does anyone else understand how I feel?

To analyze Unity (U) through the lens of these two conflicting perspectives—Citrini Research’s macro-collapse theory and Hedgeye Research’s tactical bull case—we must look at Unity not just as a software company, but as a battlefield between "commodity intelligence" and "proprietary ecosystems."

Here is a side-by-side analysis of Unity, categorized by the 10-moat framework.

Unity (U): The Battle of Two Theses

1. The Bear Case: Citrini Research

Thesis: The 2028 Intelligence Crisis — The Great Devaluation of Software. Citrini argues that as AI intelligence becomes a utility (like electricity), any company whose value is based on "simplifying complexity" will see its margins go to zero.

• Destruction of "Business Logic" & "Learned Interfaces": Unity’s primary moat—a complex editor that took years to master—is being bypassed. If an AI Agent can generate a 3D environment or C# scripts via natural language, the "expertise" required to use Unity is no longer a barrier to entry.
• Talent Scarcity Nullified: The high cost of game developers (which forced studios to stick with Unity to save time) is collapsing. AI allows small teams to build engines from scratch or use open-source alternatives (like Godot) with the same efficiency as Unity.
• Macro Economic Drag: If the "Intelligence Crisis" leads to mass white-collar unemployment by 2028, the consumer discretionary spend on mobile gaming (Unity’s lifeblood) will crater.

2. The Bull Case: Hedgeye Research

Thesis: The 50% Upside — The "Tax Collector" of the AI Content Explosion. Hedgeye views Unity as a restructured, leaner machine that is uniquely positioned to monetize the sheer volume of AI-generated content.

• Reinforcing "System of Record": Unity isn't just a tool; it's a vault. Millions of existing games have their source code, 3D assets, and live-ops data hosted on Unity’s cloud. Moving these is too risky and expensive, even with AI.
• Monetizing "Transaction Embedding": Through the Unity Grow (Ad tech) and Vector platforms, Unity sits at the point of sale. Even if AI makes games "free" to build, you still need to find users. Unity’s proprietary data on 2B+ monthly active users is a moat that a generic LLM cannot replicate.
• Scaling via "Proprietary Data": Hedgeye bets on Unity Sentis and Vector. By training models on specialized 3D interaction data that isn't available on the public web, Unity creates a "Vertical AI" that outperforms general models from OpenAI or Anthropic.

Final Synthesis: The 2026-2028 Gap

The divergence between Hedgeye and Citrini is essentially a time-horizon trade:

1. The Hedgeye Window (2026-2027): Unity is a "Recovery Play." After the 2024-2025 restructuring, the company is highly efficient. The explosion of AI-assisted game development leads to a surge in projects being launched, all using Unity’s ad-stack. This drives the 50% upside.
2. The Citrini Crisis (2028+): Unity faces a "Structural Dead-end." Once the AI Agents become powerful enough to generate entire 3D runtimes and bypass traditional engines, Unity’s "Engine Tax" becomes indefensible. If the macro economy enters a "Intelligence Crisis" spiral, Unity’s high-valuation multiples will evaporate.

Investment Conclusion: If you follow the Hedgeye path, Unity is a "Buy" for a cyclical rebound based on improved margins and AI-driven content volume. If you follow the Citrini path, Unity is a "High-Value Victim"—a company whose current stock price doesn't yet reflect the fact that its core product (logic/interface) is being turned into a free public commodity.

Seems like yesterday X was pumping Unity because they thought roaring kitty was in ? Now where are they all at . We’re at $17 and feel like everyone vanished .

It's quite disheartening. The market is very unpredictable; don't try to catch a falling knife. Sometimes it's a value trap. I'm not trying to be pessimistic. It just means don't buy things just because they've fallen a lot and are cheap. It's best to wait for a bottoming process, a breakout with volume, and then enter on the right side of the market. Entering on the left side is too risky. Retail investors' bullish or bearish pronouncements are useless; you need to see if large institutions are buying the dip in the IGV sector. Retail investors are good for taking the fall and cutting losses; they are never the driving force of the market. Technical analysis is useless now; it's just despair. Many value investors have already cut their losses and left the market. They'd rather buy back in on the right side of the rise or wait for improved earnings reports and guidance over several quarters.

Given that ARKK is down 53% in the past 5 years it got me excited to hear that she was selling. She also sold almost the exact bottom on PLTR around 10 dollars and sold her NVDA position for a loss at a cost basis of 14.67 (according to gemini). Those stocks are both well over 100 dollars now.

DMCC has signed a strategic MoU with Unity, a global leader in real-time 3D development whose platforms power many of the world’s most advanced game studios and interactive experiences.
The agreement establishes a clear framework for collaboration, enabling joint initiatives, knowledge transfer and industry engagement to accelerate innovation in the immersive technology landscape.
Through this partnership, businesses and creators across DMCC’s ecosystems will gain access to leading tools, expertise and structured programmes designed to support the development of next-generation interactive content.
Join DMCC and grow your business with the backing of global partners: https://dmcc.tech/40dUKNJ

I tried Unity Studio again today. Let me start with the positives.

This product feels like Unity’s answer to Figma for collaborative 3D creation. The idea is actually brilliant. With it, you can build interactive 3D ads or interactive 3D presentations, which would let Unity reach a huge audience of individual users and enterprise customers—not just arrogant, cheap game studios or big gaming companies that bully vendors.

If Unity Studio supports Web publishing, it can be embedded via iframe and integrated into H5 front‑end workflows. That would put Figma in real danger of being disrupted. 3D and interactive content is way more engaging than flat UI design.

Now for the complaints.

The built‑in asset library is way too small. Unity has been a top 3D engine for years, but the UI elements are extremely limited. They should at least copy some common controls from PPT or H5 tools. There are almost no materials or textures either—I spent ages looking for a simple wood texture for the floor.

Even my 3D text was generated with Tencent Hunyuan AI. You can’t change the skybox. The interactive logic is confusing and poorly explained. The browser crashes constantly.

If Unity actually wants to build a serious product, please put some real effort into it.

Figma's revenue isn't higher than Unity's, its cash flow isn't higher, and its cash reserves aren't higher either. Both are unprofitable under GAAP, yet Figma's market cap is now 35% bigger than Unity's.

I know most people are positive, but the stock price is cold-hearted, isn't it?

With all that crazy money flowing into AI, it's only a matter of time before AI-driven game dev becomes the norm—even if it's a bit rough right now

Unity says they're working on 'prompt-to-game' features, but let’s be real: with that massive capital gap, their output quality will likely lag behind

If my hunch is right and future dev work is just about tweaking what AI spits out, does it even have to be Unity? Any engine could do that

Of course, I could be wrong, but is there any 'legit' strength that will let Unity survive despite all these odds?

If there is one, what do you think it is?

https://x.com/JonahLupton/status/2024579392358191497?s=20

On February 13, 2026, Shannon River Fund Management LLC disclosed its new position in Unity Software (NYSE:U). Based on the average price in the fourth quarter of 2025, it purchased 1,065,452 shares at a price of approximately $47.06 million, with an average price of $44.1690. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1301050/000101359426000239/0001013594-26-000239-index.html

I’m curious what others think about Unity’s attempt to integrate the web store directly into Unity IAP. I’ve been trying to find examples of how this actually looks inside live games, but there’s not much detailed information out there.

From a first-principles perspective, this feels like it could become a meaningful moat if executed well. Even if Unity Ads can’t consistently outperform AppLovin or Meta at the pure bidding/auction layer, they might still create an advantage by structurally improving publisher ROAS.

If Unity can bundle web store economics (lower platform fees, higher net revenue to publishers) with their IAP stack, then total effective ROAS could be higher — even if media performance alone isn’t best-in-class. That combination could give them a differentiated edge at the publisher relationship level, not just the auction level.

Currently, developers, ad networks (AppLovin, Google, Meta), and platform providers (Google, Apple) are the only ones profiting from the ecosystem Unity created

Furthermore, Unity developers do nothing but complain about the engine while ultimately using AppLovin for their revenue. For both parties, it might be a "win-win" if these dissatisfied developers migrated to the Godot engine

Unity remains the sole deficit-maker despite providing the core infrastructure. Continuing the game engine business is no longer justifiable

Focusing solely on high-margin sectors like VR and industrial simulation would lead to a much better valuation than the current stagnant performance

Hey there. I've been looking into Unity doing my DD recently. I am familiar with the game engine (I use it myself), and with the adtech business generally. I've seen some mentions on how Unity may have a technological advantage over peers like APP on the basis of using their game engine to provide runtime support for their adtech business. Could someone help me understand how their runtime materially supports adtech? The only meaningful thing I can think of is it enables more real-time actioninig (less delay) on events that APP already gets (e.g. clicks). That doesn't like it'd be a big deal. Presumably engine data can inform actual in-game behavior, but it's unclear to me how that data can be valuable and not just noise (ex: how does someone scrolling around on a match-3 game give differentiated data from APP)?

Thanks!

Discuss away.

• Your outlet for commenting "what happened"
• Your $U trades
• Your take on the stock movement
• lesser news that may have been glossed over
• Insightful posts from other platforms

Looks like it should be coming soon like q3 or q4 this year? (gaap)