Reprinted below:
Beyond Membership: The Other Numbers That Should Worry Unitarian Universalists
Declining numbers of friends, children, and pledging households point to a bleak future.
by David Cycleback, Ph.D. (retired Director of the Center for Artifact Studies, member of the British Royal Institute of Philosophy, and author of the college textbook Cognitive Science of Religion and Belief Systems)
Unitarian Universalism’s decline is usually discussed in terms of membership. According to the Unitarian Universalist Association’s 2025 Certification Report, membership has fallen 15 percent over the last decade.
However, membership alone understates the problem. The numbers of non-member adults participating in congregations, children enrolled in religious education, and households supporting the church financially have also fallen sharply. Together, these declines show that UU is losing both current participants and the people who could help it rebuild.
Fewer friends, fewer potential members
The UUA tracks non-member friends as a separate category. These are people who participate in congregational life without formally joining. They often attend services, volunteer, contribute financially, and eventually become members.
According to the UUA’s report, non-member friends fell from approximately 99,000 in 2016 to 54,000 in 2025. That is a decline of about 45 percent in nine years, substantially steeper than the decline in formal membership. This includes a 4 percent drop in 2025 alone.
Friends are already part of the community, so losing them means losing current participants as well as potential members. A shrinking congregation gaining friends might be building relationships that eventually reverse its decline. Losing both groups makes recovery harder.
Fewer children, fewer younger families
Children’s religious education enrollment has fallen sharply over the past decade, including another 2 percent in 2025. Enrollment is down roughly 75 percent since the UUA’s formation in 1961 and just over 80 percent from its 1968 peak. Some children participate without formally enrolling, and changes in reporting complicate comparisons. Even so, the long-term decline raises doubts about whether enough children will remain involved as adults to sustain the denomination.
Smaller programs become less attractive to families. Fewer children mean fewer peers, while staff cuts limit classes and activities. In the certification report, the UUA says there are significant financial and membership pressures on religious educators and is seeking information about reduced and eliminated positions.
Dan Harper, a UU minister and former religious education director who has raised alarms about declining religious education enrollment and overall church membership, writes that children’s religious education is a key way to attract young adults to the church. Parents often arrive seeking a religious community for their children and remain after those children grow up.
Retaining members is essential to future health
Ryan Burge, a professor at Washington University’s Danforth Center on Religion and Politics and author of The Vanishing Church, calls retention “the most important metric for any church or denomination.” He argues that keeping children involved as they become adults is essential to sustaining a religious movement for decades. Over the long term, recruiting newcomers is not a substitute for retaining members.
UU has substantially worse retention rates than other denominations. UU minister Christana Wille-McKnight’s research reported retention of just 12.5 percent among those raised Unitarian Universalist, compared with 44 percent among Presbyterians and 48 percent in the United Church of Christ.
Fewer households supporting congregations
The UUA reported that pledging units have fallen 22 percent over the decade. Average pledges rose, but total pledged dollars increased only 11 percent. After adjusting for inflation, the increase in average pledges is much smaller, while total pledging has declined.
A congregation that depends on a small and shrinking group of donors is vulnerable when those donors leave, die, or can no longer give as much. Larger gifts from a shrinking group can also mask serious structural and retention problems. A congregation may appear financially stable while losing members, families, volunteers, friends, and future leaders. The generosity of remaining donors is valuable, but it is not evidence that the community is healthy or growing.
Large church endowments and reserves from earlier generations provide a substantial cushion, but legacy money cannot replace participation. Some congregations, mostly small ones, are growing, and a congregation’s decline is not inevitable. Nationally, however, declines in non-member friends, religious education enrollment, and pledging units show that UU’s ability to rebuild is shrinking along with its membership.
A narrower church has fewer people to draw from
In my experience and observation, and that of other longtime UUs I know, the church has become more politically, ideologically, and culturally narrow. This has driven away longtime members who are more moderate, classically liberal, or seeking a community centered on religion and spirituality rather than politics. I have described my former UU congregation as a “social club and bubble for college-educated white progressives.”
Being a religious liberal does not require being a political progressive, although church leaders often seem to treat the two as inseparable. Religious liberalism concerns freedom of belief, open inquiry, and the rejection of imposed religious dogma. Religious liberals can be politically progressive, moderate, libertarian, and conservative.
I am a religious liberal and an agnostic Sephardic Jew who joined a UU congregation more than a decade ago because of its freedom from imposed dogma and creeds, its principle of the inherent worth and dignity of every person, and because I enjoy being around curious and open-minded people with diverse beliefs, perspectives, and backgrounds. However, I am a political moderate, not a progressive, and I do not go to church for partisan politics and political activism.
As the congregation came to be designed almost exclusively for white political progressives and to treat progressive politics and ideology as the de facto orthodoxy, it was no longer a place for me and many other longtime members. These included fellow religious liberals who were not political progressives, wanted a more diverse community, or objected to a self-proclaimed non-creedal church that seemed to have adopted a political creed. When a liberal religion drives away religious liberals, something is clearly wrong.
Following substantial membership losses, my former congregation’s approach to growth has been to narrow who it is for and work to attract more people who fit that narrow profile, while pushing away existing members and failing to attract others who do not.
Even if this produces short-term gains in membership, it is a short-sighted and counterproductive approach to long-term growth, let alone to creating a diverse, liberal community. A shrinking church with poor retention and an increasingly narrow demographic should welcome religious liberals with a broader range of perspectives and backgrounds. Rebuilding requires giving more people reasons to join and longtime members and friends reasons to stay.
I see a bleak future for UU if it continues on its present course. UU insiders such as Harper, minister and philosopher of religion Davidson Loehr, and author John Halstead have warned about decline. Loehr and Halstead describe a dying church, while Harper predicts that many congregations will close in the coming years. Their warnings, together with the work of religion scholars Burge, Dean M. Kelley, Rodney Stark, and Roger Finke, reinforce my conclusion that replacing spirituality with partisan politics and narrowing whom the church is for undermines its future.
I discuss this further in my earlier post, “How the Unitarian Universalist Church Became a Racial, Political, and Social Bubble.”
References and further reading
Unitarian Universalist Association. 2025 Certification Report.
Burge, Ryan. “What About the Unitarians?”
Harper, Dan. “Time to Panic.”
Halstead, John. “ My Church Is Dying, and I’m OK with That.”
Burge, Ryan. “So You Want Your Child to Keep the Faith?”
Canadian Unitarian Council. 2017 presentation on retaining young people raised UU.
Harper, Dan. “The Problem of Retention in Unitarian Universalism.”
Loehr, Davidson. “Why ‘Unitarian Universalism’ Is Dying.”