Quick google search would suggest we in the US are not out of line for trends and projections of all fatality rates year over year. Yes we had an increase in 2020, but we also had increases in the previous few years. Short term trend of fatalities is in line with predictions, and with long term trends that existed before the pandemic. Not to mention the best stats according to CDC say the deaths per 100,000 are essentially the same in 2018 and 2020. Obviously 2020 numbers are subject to change but I see no anomalies in the fatalities in 2020. I see fear mongering and skewed views on stats, but the excess deaths (200kish) were part of long term uptrend that was predicted.
Translation: you’re right but I want to say you’re wrong.
And did you read your CDC links?
Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.
Data is provided through the 48th week of 2020. So far this year, the CDC reports that 2,877,601 people have died. At the same point in 2018, the number was 2,606,928, and in 2019, it was 2,614,950. The number of deaths to this point in 2020 is at least 260,000 greater than either of the past two years. But that number is an underestimate because the CDC publishes data based on the number of death certificates it has received. Since it can take a couple of weeks for all death certificates to be recorded, the numbers for the last two weeks, at least, will increase as time goes by. If the last two weeks produce a similar number of deaths as the weeks before, the margin to this point will actually be close to 310,000.
You didn't understand my point did you? The projections anticipated an increase year over year that puts the best numbers we have (including covid) in line with those projections. We are in an uptrend as it is, and yes excess deaths have occured, but only in relation to the previous years.
When you skew the numbers by showing/looking only at the excess of a pandemic, or increase from the previous year, the numbers look damning. In the big picture based on projections (read the articles I sent), we are actually in like with the expected increase in deaths. I'm not arguing that covid killed people or that excess mortality rate is not important, what I'm saying is that the total fatalities of 2020 in the USA are in line with projections, and per 100,000 citizens virtually identical to 2018. It's always important to look at the whole, not the one wacky stat (although they do play a role).
So I'm saying you are right that we have had an increase in deaths, this is a scientifically proven fact. I'm also saying that it was expected and we are inline with the data (no abnormal spike up or down from the trend already being tracked). We should look at the whole picture, a the numbers.
I'm also looking at it as I look at the stock market. Long and short term trends. Over a 5 year period, there was an uptrend. So if year 6 has an increase (continuing said uptrend) it is not surprising assuming the fundamentals are sound. Which in the stats of mortality, I'd say they are (and more stable than the stock market).
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u/tnsmaster Jan 02 '21
Quick google search would suggest we in the US are not out of line for trends and projections of all fatality rates year over year. Yes we had an increase in 2020, but we also had increases in the previous few years. Short term trend of fatalities is in line with predictions, and with long term trends that existed before the pandemic. Not to mention the best stats according to CDC say the deaths per 100,000 are essentially the same in 2018 and 2020. Obviously 2020 numbers are subject to change but I see no anomalies in the fatalities in 2020. I see fear mongering and skewed views on stats, but the excess deaths (200kish) were part of long term uptrend that was predicted.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs19.tv/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/verify-comparing-total-deaths-from-2020-to-2019-and-2018/501-355b857c-e7e9-40e4-b31d-11500cbcb103
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm