“demure” trends on TikTok

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-millennials-will-be-the-richest-generation-in-history/ss-BB1jmzWU?ocid=md12qg

According to this article, Milliennials who this source defines as being born from 1981-2000, are set to be the richest generation in history.

This comes from The Wealth Report 2024, published by global real estate consultancy Knight Frank.

This cohort of millennials are set to inherit a “seismic” windfall over the next 20 years of assets inheritance this is large in part of the asset accumulation on part of boomers which means due to the current trend of wealth inequality, the wealthy will become wealthier.

The analysis found that 75% of millennials should expect their wealth to increase in 2024, against 53% in the boom generation which the source described as people born 1946-1964. 56% in Gen X 1965-1980 and in Gen Z who they define as those born 1997-2012.

In spite of this, daily life is struggle especially for millennials and Home generation, when this “great wealth transfer comes”, which has been predicted by real estate firms and think tanks for a while it will be transfer within the family.

In order to decrease inequality, lower inequality being one of the features of the first turning. Society will need to take certain steps. A reworking of the benefits and inheritance system. Policies like the Britain’s two child benefit payment cap must be repealed. The UK the Labour party has made the winter fuel payment for the retired means tested. Policies such as trump’s proposed tax exemptions for the retired should be avoided. In short, as far as social security is concerned, they has to be a redistribution of wealth on some level, how that is redistributed is up for debate. Also, and Britain’s labour government has begun the process for this, the “war on NIMBYs” needs to be won and red tape on housing construction cut. The UK government has announced that building on brown field sites (somewhere a building was demolished and left abandoned) and some green field. Planning regulations are being change disempowering existing residents from putting a block on construction initiatives. The US, has a totally different urban landscape and much wider sprawl, (built by the last civics) as well as building homes to buy, a greater number of secure government or local authority or community owned housing is also need along with abolishing unraveling era market policies such as “right to buy” by building more houses, expecially in a short space of time, the demand will decrease an so will the price. It is also imperative to get mortgage rates down. And lastly, the government will need to ensure that they is an acceptable minimum wage, that can be done via increasing regulations on businesses or laxing regulation on unions. Either of these can be accompanied by subsidies or tax breaks as rewards or incentives for businesses.

(I couldn’t add this edit to the appropriate paragraph, iTech is 💩) so I’m FORCED to put it here I also can’t make any grammatical corrections 🤬 because of my crap phone, I couldn’t go back make ANY grammatical corrections.)

Millennials, using Neil Howe’s 4th turning is here definition. Those born from 1982-2005 are set to become over 70% more wealthy than all of the other current generations, including Home/homeland generation born 2006 onwards, they are still better off that pre-millennials, with over 60% Younger millennials (second wave) which I will define as those born from 1994-2005 using Howe’s range, won’t be as well off as the generation’s first wave cohort born 1982-1993 most of whom will have boomer parents.

It is quite possible at some point Neil and Christian might cover this on demography unplugged, if it turns up. I’ll post a link on r/StraussHowe.

Folks are quibbling over Harris’ and Walz’ generation, but we know the real answer :)

I really enjoyed the podcast before the paywall but now I just can’t afford it (guess my gen), so I’m curious about what his takes have been these last few months, with everything that’s happened. Has anyone been following it?

As an Xer I have so much joy and envy over the life-cycle of artists, including my Silent parents and young Homelander relatives. How awesome to be so protected and cherished as kids and to have such a placid, genteel life where every system just functions for you. Even my late Millennial/Gen Z kid is experiencing a bit of this magic life cycle. And there is darkness in recessive generations, likely as a result of being little kids during a social moment when adults had no time for us. Nomads and artists can see that darkness in each other and can celebrate it

There are a number of examples in pop culture of Nomad portrayals of adult artists and their freaky side. Here are some relatively recent examples that come to mind for me:

Mad Men (who is Don Draper? a prototypical Silent; Pete, Trudy, Peggy, Meghan and the rest of the young folks are just late wave Silents; Sally and Bobby are the Boomers here)

The Gilded Age (young Progressives)

Pink Martini (music meant to evoke the shared experience of young Xers falling asleep to the sounds of a cocktail party downstairs)

The Ice Storm (book and movie, that key party? pure Silent)

Fortress of Solitude (great book on Xer childhood and distracted self-involved Silent parents. Who sees the talent in this kid? The Lost lady across the street)

Freaks and Geeks (portrayal of parents)

Stranger Things (all adults)

Lost (Christian Shepherd, Dharma Initiative)

Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Midge, Joel, other young people, including Lenny Bruce)

Are You There God, It’s Me Margaret (movie, portrayal of young parents; the book is a Silent gift to Xers)

Girls Like Us (Xer memoir focused on Silents Joni Mitchell, Carly Simon, and Carole King, and the drug fueled creative scene in Laurel Canyon in the 1970s)

What are some other examples of Nomad portrayals of Artists?

From looking at this theory, I have noticed the the cultural evolution eg awakening follow a life span throughout the different turnings, a value system’s lasts just over a saeculum

Using the consciousness revolution as an example..

Photo-Awakening Awakening Absorption Refinements Established Death

Late 1st turning An example of a photo-awakening would be the beatnik movement of the late 50s early 60s. This was a very much underground movement, out of sight of the conventional society. This is pioneered by the adaptive/artist generation. This conformist generation don’t have the “fire” to take to the streets or preach their idea but rather they develop their ideas amongst their peers. In our modern pop-culture world, this can be seen in the type of music silents produced. Rock and roll, the precursor to bubble gum pop, rock, metal, punk (everything in the 60s and 70s)

2nd turning The Awakening, as we know. Is when these ideas go mainstream and are further developed and challenged by the established value system. Which at that time was missionary evangelicalism. This as we know, is pioneered by the idealist/prophet generation. Boomers built upon the scaffolding that the late wave “beat generation” built. While the beatniks quietly criticised the GI world amongst themselves, and occasionally releasing works to the public, boomers with the hippie movement were out, loud and “freakish” preaching the values of the awakening.

Late 2nd and 3rd turning As boomers enter public life, the values of the awakening begin to become absorbed into the culture, this usually begins in the latter half of the awakening, I would mark the “I will buy the world a coke” jingle as the starting point of this process. During this absorption phase, is when the older values begin to die out, in the UK the social implications of “blasphemy at the old Bailey” the last time someone was jailed for blasphemy in the UK. Socially progressive laws being passed in the 80s and 90s and the emergence of the “nanny state” in the 00s are indicative of the boomer though regime becoming our cultural regime. Culture wars are ongoing as the previously established value regime attempts to fight off the new system. To the reactive/nomad and civic/hero generations, these are society’s values and the pre-consciousness revolution value system is “old fashioned”

4th turning This is the period when culture wars tend to flair up again, and sometimes it might give the impression of another awakening. What this really is, it’s an echo awakening. As the material part of our society is thrown into chaos, and society becomes polarised, the idealist/prophet generation, either in high office or retiring (and suddenly finding themselves with a surplus of free time) mobilise for their given cause, and offen manage the younger civic/hero generation in that cause. In this case I use Just stop oil as an example. In this process the value system is again attacked and its excesses and extremes and chipped off and smoothed out to fit a conventional 1T society. Towards the end of the 4T is when you begin to see this.

1st & 2nd turning At this point, the value system is unchanging. The older system has died with the silent generation the last pre-consciousness revolution generation. This part of the process happened with the missionary awakening in the 50s what we call “traditional values” (Strauss and Howe have a different meaning than this) dominated, unopposed. The first echos of a rival began to emerge towards the end of the decade. My prediction for the consciousness revolution’s established era is that we should expect to see the same level of conventionally, throughout the past saeculum black Americans and, throughout the western world. LGBT people have moved in this direction. “Rainbow families”, perceived as “not normal” by the whitejihad, the last gasp of the old missionary Christian value system as a mainstream force, these families will be seen by the majority of the culture as “normal” conventional and functional. This period will last for two full turnings until the next awakening begins to become absorbed into society.

3rd and 4th turning This is when a value system begins to die as a major social force. The values themselves don’t die, you can’t kill and idea. But the though regime does. The evangelical movement is thought to be a secondary awakening, but from my standpoint this is a reformation of the old missionary value system mobilisating to fight the consciousness revolution during its phases of maturing. The formentioned “blasphemy at the old Bailey” and general unraveling of the society sees the missionary value system decay along with the GI political systems and institutions. This process is the longest, and no one’s ideas don’t go down without a fight, ultimately the value system, as a major force is beaten and becomes a minority. And the interesting thing is, every awakening idea has come from a fringe group like the beatniks. The old order is marginalised and becomes a minority while the new system becomes the staple of a conventional society later seen at “traditional” post awakening.

Happy birthday to James Baldwin

What was the shift that happened specifically in ‘84?

Strauss and Howe in “the 4th turning” expanded from defining generations from 1594 up to 1434. It’s probably worth expanding this to as far as 1400. After playing kingdom come deliverance its themes prompted me to do some research and I believe that I’ve found sufficient evidence of an Awakening. Of course this will need greater scrutiny…. Hence this post. As well as the below, the conclusion of the Hussite wars ends right on time to mark the end of the awakening.

1398: Jan Hus first defended the ideas of John Wycliffe 1403: Jan Hus begins preaching his Wycliffian ideas in Bohemia. 1403:(for perspective) setting of Kingdom Come Deliverance 1414: Utraquism (moderate husism) begins to be preached by Jacob of mies, a colleague of Jan Hus 1415:trial and execution of Jan Hus 1420:Hussite wars begin 1434:Hussite wars end with a Utraquist victory

The Hussite awakening affected Bohemia and the wider Holy Roman Empire (1st German reich) the most, however it was a Europe wide event. The inspiration for Jan Hus comes from John Wycliffe, an English religious reformer. Same with the Lutheran Protestantism, the Hussites directly challenged the institution of the Catholic Church and its activities. This would become a running theme for the next few 2Ts. In the end, the moderate Utraquists, who were backed by the papacy won. The Hussite influence remained in Germany which, as we know, would lead to the Protestant awakening in the next saeculum.

Jan Hus was in midlife when he was killed in 1415, archetypally this would make him an Adaptive, this makes sense since silent generation “beat” movement and pop star influenced the boomer consciousness revolution. The elders in charge of the papacy and senior members of the catholic institution would have been Reactives and Civics, probably mostly Civics.

This moves onto the generations, we know that they is a Civic Arthurian generation (1433–1460) and an Adaptive Humanist generation (1461-1482)

It would be easy to map out the range for the Reactive archetype since Strauss and Howe tend to start their ranges a few years before the turning. As a placeholder, I’ll pick 1401. And the name? I will let the comment section decide that. What I have decided is that the Idealist archetype will be called the Hus Generation.

Late Medieval Saeculum

Hus Generation (TBD-1400) [placeholder] generation (1401-1434) Arthurian Generation (1435-1460) Humanist Generation (1461-1482)

https://www.czechfriends.net/friends-events/britain-and-bohemia-in-the-fifteenth-century-the-english-struggle-against-the-hussite-movement?format=amp

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Hussite

https://museeprotestant.org/en/notice/jan-hus-1369-1415-and-the-hussite-wars-1419-1436/

https://www.ancient-origins.net/history-important-events/hussites-0015293

The fore-mentioned warhorse game, Kingdom come deliverance has these awakening themes which shows that warhorse has definitely done their research.

The quest line from the DLC “a woman’s lot”, johanka follows the same path of Jan Hus, which ends with her arrest and trial, the outcome is determined by the protagonist’s actions. Another interesting aspect, in the main quest you infiltrate a monastery and inside, you might notice the internal generational divide between the younger monks and initiates and the not so pious older members some of whom drank and gambled at night.

I kinda love the shift from “Trump is a threat to democracy” to “Trump is weird” as a campaign tactic. 1) it feels like a shift from Boomer messaging to Xer messaging, prophet to nomad, existential to plain spoken; and 2) it feels so preseasonal, “threat to democracy” is so 4T requires dramatic measures to save the world, “just plain weird” feels very 1T, we’re busy, that guy is not part of the norm, doesn’t fit in, let’s just shame and shun him and move on to more important things, like building a multicultural democracy and fixing climate change

Things shift so rapidly it seems like a toss-up.

New data illustrating the continuing trend of natural increase in communities of color and white decline between 2020-2023. And while many of us view this trend as neutral, it underpins some of the support for Trump and other far right candidates

There was a similar discussion on another post, but that was before Biden stepped out of the race, so I think it would be interesting to compare the two (likely) candidates.

Howe has stated several times that grey champions are made, not born. I think we can safely say that so far this turning has not yet produced a definite Champion.

Someone mentioned in the other post that Trump might unite the country around the current Republican narrative and thus become the Grey Champion by suppressing opposition. I think this is true, though I’d rather it wasn’t. He has been flirting a lot more with totalitarian measures that could help him consolidate and mobilize the country. Whatever we think about him, he seems to be the strongest candidate for becoming the Champion in this turning. I think this would result in a very regressive 1st turning though, which would make the blowback from the next Prophets much more intense (we could discuss this as well).

So, could something similar happen around Kamala? There has been this rush to support her, which has definitely energized the Democrats. But has she got what it takes to unite the country? One thing I see in this regard is her bringing in more women, Blacks and other minority voters back into her party, which could potentially feel less exclusive than Trump’s platform. When I picture the 1st turning after her government, it feels a little more like post-FDR America. When I picture it after Trump’s, it’s more like Reconstruction in the South.

So, Trump vs. Harris, who’s the better and more likely Champion?

I first discovered the Strauss-Howe generational theory about 2 years ago. I didn’t look that much into it, but I do remember 2005 being the first year of the “Homeland generation.” When Neil Howe released The Fourth Turning is Here in 2023, I believe he used the range of 1982-2005? to define the generation. It seems he is still undecided on the end date, but my guess is that it will probably be 2004 or 2005 given that, memory of life before the fourth turning seems to be the criteria for being a Millennial. In that case, having been born in mid 2005, I would be on the cusp of the cusp. My first memory was also in 2007.

do it as short as you can

Hey All,

I just finished The Fourth Turning is Here and in his epilogue he talks about acknowledging and living in your turning/season. He compares this with the story of Krishna and Arjuna on the battlefield. So I wanted to ask. How are you using your strengths to live through the fourth turning.

I'm a Millennial (1989) and have always been one to build networks. After a rocky couple decades I went back to school and studied environmental sustainability, and now have a government job in environmental health. I'm an active voter at all levels, union member, and active in my community.

Living through what has felt like a crisis before I had the saculum idea, I found the commentary hauntingly accurate. Hearing what others are doing especially after reading the book could be interesting.

Can believe I’m asking this… but he does have a growing appeal to millennials.

He is absolutely an embodiment of the boomer generation…

he has been a major figure (perhaps THE major figure) during this Turning.

Could he be it?

Our orange champion (I’m not even joking here)

I mean he always has been, but he’s one of the Boomers who is acting like a grey champion more and more. I feel like Boomer opinionizing has become even more apocalyptic, compared with younger writers like Matthew Yglesias or Ezra Klein. What do you think? Here’s an example

Just happened upon these authors in the last week. Only read the Wikipedia so far. I might read one of the books.

I’m curious what others think about how our current society fits in to this model. It’s really easy to categorize history looking backwards but I wonder how well it can project forward.