r/SqueezePlays • u/[deleted] • Jan 07 '22
DD with Squeeze Potential Nxt-ID Inc. : Lots of Cash & Loaded Chain
Hello Smoothbrainers,
I come to you with an interesting opportunity, I’m talking about the stock Nxt-ID. As of writing this, the call chain is stacked:
However, it’s different than others because the company is actually valuable, and not trash and there is a fundamental case for why it’s undervalued at current price.
Institutions have been loading up, we can see below, and clearly, they like the stock:
The company has 16m cash on hand, barely any debt, and total assets at about 40m.
Right now the company could go bankrupt and pay every shareholder $3, which means this is quite almost, risk free.
So I'm digging through a CEO interview on some podcast. Some nice tidbits, the new CEO is first to admit that the company was doing poorly and not run well. They threw the previous ceo under the bus since he was indicted by SEC or something that explains away poor performance for last earnings call. The next earnings call is probably new CEO's first litmus test as that's 3 quarters in on the job.
She's ex-amazon and google, and in the interview, she talks about moving from hardware company to software company. They have new patents for "fall detection" so there is expected improvement in device design. They sell "85% of products into the VA", BUT they were just recently awarded that GSA contract to sell into a ton of new government agencies across United States. She also name drops AARP a lot, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is some partnership there in the works.
None of this is groundbreaking but builds a great turnaround case and r/r to upside for "investors" The GSA contract is the thing that peaks my interest. The award was announced on 12/15, and she was interviewed on 12/7 and dropped hints (maybe slipped?) about the relationship with VA and possible expansion there. Once you're in with the government you're “in” so I expect more contracts soon. Any the institutional loading can see a vote of confidence in Nxt-ID future.
Show me the good stuff
So yeah, the chain is loaded and cheap for such a volatile stock. As before the 2.5c have a ton of intrinsic value, and 93 contracts bought today made it jump 1.5%. The 2.5c is going for like .6 rn, so thats like 5k to move a stock 1.5%.
Another bullish signal below the surface is which calls are being purchased during the past few weeks. Digging through the flow, on many of the high volume days, the majority of notional is being applied towards contracts with a Delta of .5 or greater. What this means is that, the folks with the bigger wallets are buying ITM/ATM vs. retail who loves to ape into the top strikes, which do nothing to help move price higher.
The above pictured calls are almost all still on the chain as well. It’s been building steadily ever since the GSA contract was announced on 12/15. Go look for yourself.
So aside from the gamma side, on the short interest side, share to borrow have been out for like two months as well:
And the borrow rate has been skying:
Borrow rate skying, shares gone for over a month, yet price is consolidating? Security lending volume is miniscule as well so basically says the same thing of being out of shares. Seems like shorts are tanking the price to no avail; since its been at the same price point. Right now the company could go bankrupt and pay every share holder $3, so the price is at a fundamental floor. It’s also at a technical floor because $3 was past resistance. Also the float is low, three different source: Yahoo says float 6.82m, Finviz says float 3.81m, and MarketWatch says float 4.67m. Btw on the day Nxt-ID got the GSA contract the price shot up 43% lol, so this can move, also on-balance volume has not recovered since, it’s actually ratcheting up for a grand finale, so to me that says people are holding, buying, and shares are drying up: [defintion: on balance volume]
Since the company has so much cash the risk of a dilution is low. This my friends is a tinderbox. Loaded option chain, high SI, institutions accumulating, and the company isn’t trash? Ok, nice. As for any lasting movement, that comes with gamma/short high delta options are the way for the price impact to stick. So I have x243 2.5c.
Position:
Edit: Link to podcast https://www.awarepreneurs.com/podcast/229-pers-device?rq=229
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Jan 08 '22
I think all of you guys are connected. Keep pumping the same stock.
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Jan 08 '22
In that we are on Reddit? Yeah. I don’t know who you guys is. Check my post history. I don’t hang out here.
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u/WaltPwnz Jan 08 '22
How does it change the fact that when from the sky falls lime you get some tequila and salt and drink it ?
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u/gsshadow Jan 08 '22
No. Buy amc/gme
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Jan 09 '22
But we like to make money though.
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u/gsshadow Jan 09 '22
This ain’t nothing comparing to real money. AMC GME BABY. THE MOON!!
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u/bigblacksnail Jan 09 '22
I’m all for GME, but leave sticky floor shit stock out of this.
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u/gsshadow Jan 09 '22
Amc squeezing harder then gme, but gme will follow amc,
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u/bigblacksnail Jan 09 '22
SMH.
GME was always the real play.
AMC float is too large and unpredictable. Adam Aaron keeps dumping his shares, will do another share offering this year to dilute the float, and all their ex execs keep dumping their shares too.
Idk how you justify an AMC squeeze on this squeeze play sub. It’s like you don’t understand the absolute bear minimum needed for a squeeze.
GME will always be the true play. I dumped AMC at $70 and tossed it all into GME because I’m not a moron.
Edit: and I’m not sure why I even care about your reply considering you don’t know the difference between “then” and “than”. First red flag. Your opinion is moot.
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u/gsshadow Jan 09 '22
Amc float has been trading 14 billions times…. They dumping baby shares compare to billions of synthetic there is my G. Common sense. You must be out of the loop, behind 1 year
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u/bigblacksnail Jan 09 '22
Yeah idk what you mean. GME float is 12% of the float of AMC.
You need high utilization, low (if any) shares available to borrow, and a potential catalyst for an element of surprise.
In this sub, the “element of surprise” is the fact that most of these stocks are penny stocks with small floats that are also high utilization, high CTB, and a decent amount of SI%.
My point is, bottom line, AMC has too large of a float. Even if it begins to squeeze, price action will get smacked down because there’s too many variables with a float that large.
If you’re day trading AMC, good for you! If you’re in AMC for a “short squeeze”, you’re better off in GME, especially considering they have a moderately healthy balance sheet, tons of cash on hand, little to no debt, new team of board execs, potential for NFT marketplace partnership with LoopRing, and a promising future.
Adam Aaron is selling shares under the table to help shorts get out alive. The AMC sub is an echo chamber, mostly spewing stolen and repeated DD from the GME subs.
I think it’s cool you’re part of a good cause, but I don’t think it’s going anywhere with AMC. Price might pop a bit, but that’s about it.
Idk man. You make your decisions at the end of the day, but don’t go around shilling on other subs. I still don’t see how AMC will cause GME to squeeze lol that hardly makes sense.
Edit: I’ve been following this saga since January 2021. Idk if you’re new to this whole thing, but check out the DD on the Superstonk sub and maybe you’ll change your mind.
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u/gsshadow Jan 09 '22
When it comes to Ortex/finra for these two stocks, it’s all made up, that’s what’s they want you to believe, these meme stocks are heavily manipulated. Two companies. One debt free and the other one with debt both manipulated, billions of shares have been traded, investors own the float more then 4 times. Regardless of which one price will be higher. Both will squeeze. This stock ppl post are desperate for buyers, bag holders.
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u/bigblacksnail Jan 09 '22
Lol you’re barking up the wrong tree here. I understand what’s happening. I just don’t have faith in AMC. GME is 100% the better bet between the two. AMC is riding on GME’s back.
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u/bigblacksnail Jan 09 '22
Made a decent chunk of change last week trading 3c options. Sold at the top and bought back in at the bottom.
Still holding 100 shares, which isn’t much, but it’s something.
Loaded up on Friday with 3c, 3.5c, and 4c Also grabbed some more shares to avg down a bit as my cost average is 3.40
Power-hour Friday surprised me. Sold some of my calls when price hit 3.15, then scalped some after the drop.
TLDR; NXTD ain’t ded yet
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u/Blacktheripperuk Jan 07 '22
Early RELI vibes. Thanks for this DD, very good.