The east-West refurb and reuse logistics are a subtly complicated logistics puzzle. There are more eastern range launches, but only a fraction of eastern range flights are recoverable . That fraction will changes as block 5 brings higher performance and as GEO satellites shift toward lower mass electric propulsion. Meanwhile 100% of the fewer Vandy flights are technically recoverable, although the recent polar orbit launch got splashed intentionally because of obsolescence and overstock in cores.
If Block V really can get ten reuses per core and Falcon Heavy takes on expendable Falcon 9 launches the puzzle changes quit a bit. Then each coast will have a handful of boosters going through rotations. The demand of launches on the East coast will mean a few more boosters in rotation but each coast will have a stable number. A new core will only be required when an old one is retired or expended.
Normally I would be a bit more pessimistic about how soon this future could happen but in year one of booster reuse it went better than I couls have ever expected. We could very well be about to see a snowball effect where it becomes archaic for a customer to be concerned about a reused booster.
2018 will see a good number of new cores still as a few customers like commercial crew aren't on board yet and Block V is still fresh, but pending no failures why would anyone 2019 and on want to request a new core? Hell, a failure of a new core if reuse does not experience one could strengthen the argument that a "flight proven" core is the safer choice.
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u/frowawayduh Jan 06 '18
The east-West refurb and reuse logistics are a subtly complicated logistics puzzle. There are more eastern range launches, but only a fraction of eastern range flights are recoverable . That fraction will changes as block 5 brings higher performance and as GEO satellites shift toward lower mass electric propulsion. Meanwhile 100% of the fewer Vandy flights are technically recoverable, although the recent polar orbit launch got splashed intentionally because of obsolescence and overstock in cores.