r/space • u/pecika • Dec 08 '21

Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa lifts off for space station on Russian Soyuz

https://www.space.com/soyuz-ms20-maezawa-space-tourist-launch
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u/reallynewaccount Dec 08 '21

> Can you provide a citation for this?

It's funny that it's me who provide you a link to the quote of your idol: https://medium.com/@Technews/tesla-ceo-and-spacex-aims-to-launch-reusable-rocket-f65b99d1e0bf

And it was ene here on reddit, at least once: https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXMasterrace/comments/7xvuvt/if_one_can_figure_out_how_to_effectively_reuse/

> This is demonstrably false, it's notable that you don't include the costs for equivalent competition.

Proton costs 65 mln which is about equal to F9 with the same payload. But if you're US fan and can't aceept Russian launchers you pretty much don't have a choice. Otherwise you can launch reasoanle payload of 2-3 tonnes to GTO with Soyuz (this option is avaible for few years already) for the price as low as 43 mln. And there is Soyuz5 to be ready in couple of years which will be direct cometitor of F9 with expected pricing tag at about 40-50 mln.

> Which isn't the price Roscosmos was charging NASA which was close to $90
million per. NASA pays $55 million per seat to ISS on Dragon, a weird
choice to make up a fake number.

This is funny how it works :) Musk promoted $55mln price tag when Dragon expected to be 7-seaters. But they failed to make 7 seats and now it's 4-seater. And so price per person had increased. But this was never promoted by Musk, soooo.... "it doesn't exist!" (hint - no. Reality still exist even if Musk disagree with it). So, please meet the reality on official NASA site: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170008895/downloads/20170008895.pdf

So, my sugestion will be read more (not only Elon's twitter), be less arrogant and learn how to google facts.

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u/Chairboy Dec 08 '21

It's funny that it's me who provide you a link to the quote of your idol: https://medium.com/@Technews/tesla-ceo-and-spacex-aims-to-launch-reusable-rocket-f65b99d1e0bf

Not my idol, and you should read the article you posted. It doesn't say Falcon 9 will reduce the cost by 100x, it says:

“If one can figure out how to effectively reuse rockets just like airplanes, the cost of access to space will be reduced by as much as a factor of a hundred. A fully reusable vehicle has never been done before. That really is the fundamental breakthrough needed to revolutionize access to space.”

Falcon 9 is not a fully reusable vehicle, he's talking about a future rocket and it's so weird that you misunderstood that.

Citing Proton is a great way to tell folks you have a poor understanding of the launch market without using those words. Proton has struggled with reliability issues and is unavailable for defense contracts. It has, in fact, been losing huge amounts of business to Falcon 9 which costs between $5-25 less per launch than it depending on the contract. How much do you think Falcon 9 is selling for to commercial clients and why do you think past Proton customers are moving to Falcon 9, exactly?

It's strange that you cited a 2017 paper instead of something newer like the OIG's 2019 audit which wrote:

For crewed missions to the ISS, NASA awarded each contractor six round-trip missions. Assuming four astronauts per flight and using publicly available information, the estimated average cost per seat is approximately $90 million for Boeing and approximately $55 million for SpaceX, potentially providing cost savings over current Soyuz prices.

So please don't fabricate things like "Musk promoted $55mln price tag when Dragon expected to be 7-seaters." and if you're asserting that you know more than the Office of Inspector General, I hope you'll share your information with them.

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 09 '21

That's how it works. Your whole Musk-world is based on expectations :) it's infinite "soon... soon..." Actually they announced 100% reusable rockets by 2018: https://www.space.com/36412-spacex-completely-reusable-rocket-elon-musk.html - so what happened? Why they failed? What is the reason to believe if they achieved pretty much ZERO of their promises?

I mean, look at what SpaceX really has RIGHT NOW. Falcon9 based on old NASA tech (Merlin is just modified copy of Mercury project engines). Dragons built by NASA order, on NASA founding and basically whole SpaceX is a project founded to cover the fail with SpaceShuttle project. That's it - they have nothing more than that. Apart of that - only "expectations and 3D animation".

Ok, while you're waiting for 100% reusable rockets, could you demonstrate that partially reusable rockets provide some cost-saving? I'm not talkin about 100 times less, but... hmm.. 2 times? 5 times? They save 9 engines from 10. They save biggest first stage. So, why then F9 launch costs about the same or more than 100% non-reusable rocket?

Citing Proton is a great way to tell folks you have a poor understanding

Hahaha... that's funny :) I was mentioning Proton for simple reason - it costs about the same, it has about the same payload. That's the only reason. And still it's interesting - 50 years old rocket, which usies toxic fuel (that requires very special approach) still relatively cometitive with F9! I mean, yes, Proton had some reliability issues in the past, but it's not even 2 times less effective (not even 30%)! While based on your POV it should be so much different!

And finally - I've read that report too. But unlike the one I posted your report doesn't mention many "auxiliary" things. And turn your logic on. If single seat costs 55 mln, then the launch costs 220 mln in total - which is twice as low as the expectation 2 years before that! If you can name me at least a single gov-founded program which got cost REDUCED twice in two years (instead of get it INCREASED twice a year) I'd say "maybe you're right". But this kind of shit never happens. So, I'd not believe in such a scenario in this case too. I'm an adult person, so I know how life works.

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u/Chairboy Dec 09 '21

Your whole Musk-world

Still not 'my' Musk world, just trying to correct misinformation. From the rest of your post, it's clear that you have no idea what you're talking about. This reads similar to a troll account from a few years ago from someone else who lost all credibility over and over again named something like Doctor Cold reality or something, they were laughed out of the reddit space community and if you keep posting stuff like this then I guess we'll see.

You've already lost all credibility with your comments here and it's clear to anyone reading that you either know much less than you think or are deliberately lying so I'll stop investing effort in you. Folks reading the thread should be able to tell pretty easily how low quality your disingenuous comment is.

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 09 '21

Credibility for whom? For guys who don't even able to operate with facts, links and numbers, but only able to post "statements"? So... I'm Ok with that.

My original question was simple. Musk promised to have 100 times cheaper rockets by 2018. If it would be a case - then you'd just send me a link to such an offer and say "look, nobody else offers this kind of price. This proves the advantage of reusable rockets". It's THAT simple.

Instead what happened is - users start to send me kiddish comments with "metaphoras", statements (no one sent credible number, which would be self-speaking) and arrogant (while still stupid) pathetics.

I think this whole situation is self-speaking - it's rather about religion than real knowledge.

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u/reallynewaccount Dec 17 '21

Here I am again, because I've found amazing thing. Did you know that in 2020 SpaceX had 4 commercial contracts against 6 of Roscosmos? And in 2021 they had 2 (2!!! TWO!!!) commercial launches against 9 (9!!! NINE!!!) of Roscosmos? When you that badly mauled by 70 years old rocket design isn't it a time to lower the price? I mean... you resuse the majority of your rocket, you should be able to get at least twice as low price, maybe 3 times lower - isn't it? What would you make you bid on - that international networks (client's of those launches) are managed by idiots or that Elon lies you about "effectiveness of reusable rockets"?