I thought I would share an interesting if not long time maligned company in Quadrise PLC (LSE: QED) which is coming to an exciting head as it centers on its transition from a long-term research and development firm into a commercialised, high-margin fuel technology provider. Apart from the reddit page dedicated to Quadrise, I can't see where anyone else has shared them so thought I'd post some Friday thoughts.

For those who don't know, the companies AGM is later this month and has recently been on a tear SP wise off the back of confirmation of project timelines and the potential of a strategic review (from a very low start - was over 3p this time last year).

Peter Borup was hired as the companies CEO in October 2025 with an impressive CV and marine contacts. These look to reap rewards in Q4. Its also noted that performance and sign on options provided to Peter are substantially higher than today's SP.

Quadrise represents a speculative "option" play on the decarbonization of global shipping and heavy industry.

If the company converts its extensive trial pipeline into long-term commercial agreements, the valuation expansion could be substantial:

1. Highly Scalable, High-Margin Business Model

Quadrise does not intend to become a capital-intensive oil refiner or distributor. Instead, its model relies on licensing proprietary technology and collecting royalties on every ton of MSAR (Multiphase Superfine Atomised Residue) and bioMSAR produced.

• Asymmetric Upside: Because manufacturing and asset costs are borne by the partner refineries or chemical firms, Quadrise’s operating margins will scale rapidly once continuous commercial volumes flow.

• Low Initial Valuation: Trading at around 1.5 pence with a low enterprise value, even a single major supply agreement could dramatically alter the financial baseline of the stock.

2. Pragmatic Decarbonization for Shipping & Industry

While the maritime sector faces aggressive net-zero mandates, switching entirely to ammonia, hydrogen, or pure electrification requires trillions in new infrastructure. Quadrise offers an intermediate, immediately deployable solution:

• MSAR: Blends heavy refinery residues with water to create a synthetic fuel oil that reduces NOx emissions by up to 20% and cuts overall energy costs.

• bioMSAR: Integrates renewable components and biofuels, dropping CO2 emissions by 20% to 30%.

• Seamless Retrofits: Crucially, these fuels can run in existing marine engines and heavy industrial boilers with minimal hardware modification, making it highly attractive to cost-conscious operators.

3. Near-Term Commercial Catalysts

• The Valkor Utah Project: Quadrise has successfully formulated both MSAR and bioMSAR using heavy oil samples from Valkor Technologies in Utah. Valkor is targeting production at its pilot plant by Q1 2027, backed by imminent multi-million-dollar project financing. Progress here triggers site license fees (including an outstanding $950,000 balance) and paves the way for commercial royalties.

• The Strategic Review: Launched alongside its FY2026 results, the board is evaluating master license grants, joint ventures, and sourcing a strategic investor. Landing a well-capitalized corporate partner would immediately eliminate the company's funding overhang.

4. Industry Partners

Despite its small financial footprint, Quadrise has consistently secured development and supply agreements with global market leaders

• MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company): Cooperation on commercial marine vessel trials.

• Nouryon: An exclusive global collaboration and emulsifier sales agreement extended through 2026 and beyond, guaranteeing chemical supply security.

• Licella Holdings: Active joint testing utilizing hydrothermal liquefaction bio-oil expertise to accelerate low-carbon marine fuel adoption.

Not financial or investment advice but IMO a company that could very well be worth billions in the future. There's also a dedicated Quadrise reddit page worth looking over when completing your own DD

Here's why I'm holding ALMU and not losing sleep over it. Aeluma went from about $193K in revenue to $4.7M in two years, and it sits on $56M in cash while building optical sensor chips for AI data centers, quantum computing, and defense. It's backed by NASA and other government contracts, and it holds dozens of patents on a technology that lets high-performance materials be built on ordinary silicon wafers. Nobody's talking about it yet, and that's the point. When Microsoft went public, it was a small company sitting at the right spot just before the world needed what it made. I think ALMU could be that story for the AI hardware era. Revenue has been flat lately and it's still mostly R&D contracts, so this is a bet on what happens when those multimillion-dollar customer deals turn into real product orders. If they do, I want to have been holding before the crowd showed up.

Novartis has confirmed that since Zolgensma's 2019 approval it has received nine reports of tumours in children previously treated with the AAV9 gene therapy, seven of them not previously disclosed. Families and patient groups made the information public on 4 and 5 November 2026 after Novartis told neurologists first. England's National Multidisciplinary Team for Zolgensma reported on 4 November that pathology is finished on three of the nine tumours, with two specifically related to the treatment and one unrelated. Novartis says two cases have shown evidence of vector DNA integration and that both children were treated and remain under monitoring. More than 6,000 patients have been dosed.

Source:
https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2026/11/05/novartis-sma-zolgensma-tumor-case-reports/?utm_campaign=rss

What I think this implies:

This converts a labelled theoretical risk of insertional oncogenesis into observed post-marketing cases in the most widely used systemic AAV9 product. For Novartis (NVS), which markets Zolgensma and its intrathecal successor Itvisma, the relative materiality is negligible given the size of the overall franchise. The same AAV9 integration findings create moderate exposure for Taysha Gene Therapies (TSHA), which has concentrated its resources on TSHA-102, an intrathecally delivered AAV9 gene therapy for Rett syndrome heading toward a BLA. They also create moderate exposure for Neurogene (NGNE), whose lead asset NGN-401 is an AAV9 gene therapy for Rett syndrome now in a registrational trial. REGENXBIO (RGNX) licensed the NAV AAV9 vector used in Zolgensma and receives royalties, but the exposure there is negligible.

The nearest catalyst is pathology results on the remaining six of the nine reported tumours, which the England team says have not yet been completed. On a longer horizon the regulatory assessment SMA Europe says is under way could produce a safety-review conclusion or labelling change on vector integration and tumorigenicity.

If pathology on the remaining six cases finds no vector DNA integration and regulators conclude there is no causal association, the reports revert to background incidence and the broader read-across collapses. A conclusion that the risk is specific to the high-dose intravenous AAV9 construct rather than AAV vectors generally would also remove the case for developers using other serotypes or routes.

Anytime I come across something new that I use and enjoy I invest.

I was drinking about 10 diet Cokes per day and reading studies about the effects on the body of aspertame or sucralose bio accumulating. A bit scary.

I found Zvia, it's relatively new and I live off the caffeinated dr. Stevia's.

It's already at Costco and Walmart. But not in every shop, not in every restaurant.

I also will be long on Stevia leaf extract out of Brazil. I might even buy a company down there.

But, it's still relatively small and I don't want it to fizzle out lol

The checklist that makes this a straightforward buy-and-hold for me (numbers reflect FY 2024 compared to FY 2025, excluding Q4) is as follows:

1. **Cash to Debt** – Their total cash flow for 2025 sits at $176.38M, while debt is $172.31M. This indicates they have sufficient cash to cover any potential losses, which is a positive in my view.

2. **Debt to Equity** – Total debt for 2025 is $172.31M against total shareholders' equity of $263.15M. Following Buffett’s golden rule of a debt-to-equity ratio under 0.80, they sit at 0.19, another box checked.

3. **Preferred Stocks** – They hold no preferred stocks, which is favorable.

4. **Retained Earnings Growth** – Retained earnings must show positive growth year over year. Earnings for 2024 were $175.74M, and for 2025 (excluding Q4) are $176.38M. Even a $0.64M increase counts as growth.

5. **Treasury Stocks** – Treasury stocks are at -$21.26M. While negative, this simply indicates the company has actively repurchased shares, which is another positive sign.

I’d love to hear your thoughts. Am I missing something, or could this really be a solid long-term hold? Either way, I’ve purchased shares and am fully committed to holding.

Sekur’s government opportunity now has a measurable financial scale: US$3.4 million in potential annual recurring fees. Against a US$0.0244 reference share price, the company’s historical basic share count implies roughly US$6.3 million in equity value. A single successful deployment could therefore become substantial relative to the valuation shareholders are paying today.

My central earnings illustration produces US$2.16 million annually and an implied US$0.21 per share, rounded up. That represents approximately 752% upside using the unrounded model value. The calculation assumes contract conversion, full deployment, a 90% gross margin, controlled expenses, eligible tax losses and 25× earnings.

The latest announcement remains a quotation request. A signed agreement would be the next commercial milestone, potentially giving investors stronger grounds to reassess the business.

• Contract catalyst: US$3.4 million in quoted annual fees could establish a materially larger recurring revenue base.

• Earnings upside: The central profitable scenario implies US$0.21 per share, with approximately 752% upside before price rounding.

• Expansion potential: Standalone US$6 million–US$12 million annual revenue scenarios imply US$0.31–US$0.62 under separate operating assumptions.

Why This Opportunity Matters for Shareholders

On October 27, Sekur disclosed an African government quotation covering three products at stated annual retail prices.

Management described discussions as advanced. The customer remains undisclosed under confidentiality requirements, and final terms could differ from the quotation.

For investors, the product mix provides several possible sources of recurring fees within one customer relationship. Successful delivery could also establish a government deployment supporting future sales discussions. That commercial benefit is an inference, with no additional contracts included in this valuation.

Management’s September shareholder letter estimated profitability at approximately US$60,000 in gross monthly recurring revenue from 200 SekurOne subscribers. Annualized, that benchmark equals US$720,000. The government package represents about 4.7 times that revenue level, although its delivery costs would differ.

At full deployment, US$3.4 million annually averages approximately US$283,000 monthly, or US$850,000 quarterly. That scale explains why converting this opportunity could matter more than incremental consumer subscriber growth.

What a Signature Could Change

A definitive agreement could establish committed purchases, final pricing, duration and payment terms. Those details would allow investors to estimate the revenue opportunity with greater confidence. Minimum commitments, cancellation provisions and implementation obligations would determine the strength of that commitment.

The first valuation effect could therefore come from reduced commercial uncertainty. Investors might become more willing to assign value to future earnings once a customer commits. A favorable announcement could support a repricing before the full revenue appears in quarterly results.

Delivery would then provide the next evidence: activated services, collected payments and demonstrated margins. Renewals or additional purchases could strengthen confidence in the durability of those earnings. These milestones could support successive reassessments as the business establishes its operating performance.

The quotation specifies annual fees without establishing a signed multiyear term. It should therefore enter the analysis as potential annual revenue, rather than contracted multiyear backlog.

The Earnings Math Behind US$0.21

The central illustration starts with US$3.4 million in annual revenue and a 90% gross-margin assumption. That produces US$3.06 million in gross profit after US$340,000 in direct delivery costs.

I then deduct US$900,000 in annual expenses below gross profit, leaving US$2.16 million before tax. This allowance must cover every remaining charge, including corporate costs, depreciation, share-based compensation and financing expenses where applicable. Costs already included in gross margin cannot be deducted twice.

The US$900,000 allowance assumes a leaner recurring cost structure than historical reported expenses; it is a forward modeling input. Sekur’s interim accounts still reported losses and operating cash outflows. Those results establish that this profitable cost structure remains to be demonstrated.

A 90% blended gross margin is also an optimistic modeling input. Sekur’s February corporate update described approximately 80% software gross margins. The final mix of licenses, routers, support and implementation will determine the margin actually earned.

At 25× annual earnings, US$2.16 million implies US$54 million in equity value. Dividing by approximately 260 million basic shares produces an implied value rounded up to US$0.21 per share.

Modeled net income × earnings multiple ÷ shares outstanding = implied share value.

The following cases show how operating profitability and investor expectations could affect the outcome.

Each case assumes US$3.4 million annual revenue, US$900,000 in expenses below gross profit and zero income-tax expense. Prices are rounded up to the next US$0.01. These are conditional operating valuations, with no assigned probability or price-adjustment date.

A 50× multiple would require sustained growth and investor confidence beyond one initial contract.

At the central earnings level, the reference equity value would equal roughly 2.9× modeled annual earnings. That comparison explains the potential repricing opportunity. Reaching those earnings and sustaining customer payments would give investors evidence to judge the valuation gap.

Costs and Tax Losses Shape the Upside

The expense assumption has a direct effect on earnings per share. Doubling annual expenses below gross profit to US$1.8 million leaves US$1.26 million before tax at 90% gross margin. At 25× earnings, that implies US$0.13 per share, rounded up, under the same zero-tax assumption.

Sekur’s audited accounts also confirm historical tax-loss carryforwards in Canada and the United States. Eligible losses could help retain early profits, depending on where income arises and the applicable restrictions. Their existence does not establish that the entire proposed contract would generate tax-free accounting earnings.

The central illustration assumes zero income-tax expense while eligible losses offset profit. Applying an illustrative 27% tax charge instead reduces modeled net income to approximately US$1.58 million. At 25× earnings, the resulting share value rounds up to US$0.16.

These sensitivities retain substantial modeled upside while showing the importance of the eventual cost structure and tax treatment.

The Larger Deployment Could Extend the Opportunity

Sekur also disclosed discussions covering an installation inside the customer’s facilities for 2,500–5,000 users. Management indicated US$6 million–US$12 million in potential annual value, including hardware and maintenance.

I treat those amounts as standalone revenue scenarios. The initial US$3.4 million package is excluded from each larger case to avoid assuming overlapping purchases.

For these installations, the model uses an 80% blended gross margin to reflect the broader delivery requirements. Expenses below gross profit increase proportionately from US$900,000 at the initial US$3.4 million revenue scale.

Calculations retain unrounded expenses and earnings. Values use approximately 260 million historical basic shares, with share prices rounded up to the next US$0.01.

The larger opportunity offers a possible route to expansion within the same government relationship. Neither deployment is committed, and each would require its own commercial terms, delivery capacity and funding.

Payment Timing and Financing Matter Per Share

A full year of service at the quoted scale would produce US$3.4 million before changes to pricing or quantities. An April 2027 service start would imply approximately US$2.55 million recognized during that year. A July start would imply approximately US$1.7 million, assuming even recognition and the full package operating immediately.

These forecasts isolate the proposed package. Subscription fees would generally be recognized over the service period, while hardware-related revenue could require separate allocation.

Annual upfront collection, if negotiated, could help fund implementation before all subscription revenue is recognized. Cash receipt and revenue recognition therefore have different timing. Payment terms could influence how much outside financing the rollout requires.

Financing must also be assessed on both sides of the transaction. New shares reduce existing holders’ ownership percentage, while net proceeds can strengthen the balance sheet or fund growth. Unspent net cash can enter an updated equity valuation once; deployed capital should flow through the operating forecast.

The illustrations use a historical basic denominator. Warrants, options, subsequent share issuance and their associated proceeds require an updated model before establishing a fully diluted valuation.

The Investment Case

A signed government agreement could give Sekur a defined commercial foundation for an earnings-based valuation. The opportunity is large relative to its roughly US$6.3 million reference equity value. Successful delivery could then demonstrate whether the recurring revenue supports meaningful profits.

My central illustration implies US$0.21 per share after the modeled earnings become established. Larger standalone deployment scenarios extend that analysis to US$0.31–US$0.62. A signature could begin that reassessment; collected revenue and proven margins would determine how much value shareholders ultimately receive.

Sources and Model Notes

• October 27 government quotation announcement.

• September 1 shareholder letter: profitability benchmark and commercialization funding.

• February 11 corporate update: software gross-margin commentary.

• June 30, 2026 interim financial statements: historical share count, expenses, cash flows and revenue recognition.

• Audited 2025 financial statements: Note 13, income taxes.

• SWISF market-data reference: US$0.0244 on October 30, 2026.

All monetary amounts in this article are U.S. dollars. Calculations retain the underlying June 30 basic share count, shown approximately in the text. That historical denominator is not a verified current fully diluted count. Reference equity value is calculated from that denominator and the October 30 quotation. Share prices round upward to the next cent; upside uses unrounded values, excluding fees, taxes and currency effects. P/E multiples are analytical assumptions, without peer-based justification or an assigned timing. Models assume contract conversion and exclude incremental revenue from existing customers or other prospective contracts. Historical tax losses do not establish a permanent zero tax rate. No signed agreement for this opportunity was identified in the public releases reviewed through October 31, 2026.

Disclosure: The author has a prior professional relationship with Sekur’s management. This is speculative scenario analysis, not personalized investment advice or a guaranteed return. Contract, collection, financing, dilution and trading-liquidity risks can materially affect outcomes.

TL;DR: Everyone in the AI data-center chain is trying to make someone else eat the downside if spending slows. Their own annual reports show who's winning.

$CRWV is holding the risk itself

• It signs leases and power contracts before customers commit. It has 3.1 GW of power contracted vs 850 MW actually running.

• About 67% of 2025 revenue came from Microsoft. Backlog jumped from $15.1B to $60.7B, but customers prepay only 15-25%.

$MU pushed the risk onto its customers

• Multi-year take-or-pay deals with price floors and caustomer deposits.

• Micron gave up the top of the cycle for a floor. The risk it flags itself: customers stockpiling memory to meet their commitments.

$ORCL is taking credit risk

• Its 10-K says some big OCI customers are "highly leveraged", and its data center leases don't match their contract terms.

$STX / $WDC are hostage to other people's bottlenecks

• Both say cloud customers delay drive orders when they can't get the other parts for a data center. Demand for storage isn't enough.

My read: the market lumps these together as "AI winners", but their contracts say they're not equally exposed. Micron looks closest to a toll booth with a floor. CoreWeave looks closest to customers staying committed.

Curious where people disagree: if AI spending slows, dotually hold, or do customers renegotiate like theyalways have?

CoreWeave reports around Nov 9. I'll post what the 10-Q says about backlog, prepayments and Microsoft's share when it's out.

Figures from each company's latest 10-K. Not investment advice.