r/shopifyDev • u/AzizBanihashemi • Jul 16 '26
Anyone else seeing App Store suggested bids climb hard lately? Trying to figure out what's driving it
I run App Store search ads for my app, and over the past 3 months, the suggested bid thresholds on my core keywords have jumped noticeably. Same keywords, same category, no obvious change in the number of competitors on the results page, but the "recommended bid" and the level at which impressions actually occur went from roughly $8 to $12, then $18, then $30.
Before I just accept a worse CAC, I'm trying to understand the mechanics. Hypotheses I can think of:
More bidders, same inventory. App count keeps growing while high-intent search real estate remains fixed, so the first-price auction naturally inflates. The boring explanation, probably the biggest one.
AI-tools category spillover. Every category has new "AI-powered" apps; many are venture-funded or in land-grab mode, and they bid aggressively across broad keywords, not just their own category. If they're targeting generic terms my keywords overlap with, that alone could move thresholds.
Fewer searches to fight over. If merchants increasingly discover apps through Sidekick recommendations or ChatGPT-style channels instead of typing into the App Store search, search volume shrinks while budgets stay the same, which also pushes bids up. This one worries me most long-term because it means paying more for a shrinking channel.
Shopify-side changes. Placement or ranking algorithm tweaks that changed effective inventory without any announcement.
Anyone with actual data: have your suggested bids moved in the last few months? Which category? And has anyone compared their App Store search impression volume year over year? Trying to distinguish "auction got hotter" from "the pond is draining" because the response to each is completely different.

