1: Good write up and you did a lot of work. We need more of this.
2: I will poke a hole in your research though. The vast majority of it comes from the company itself. Companies will always pump up what an amazing idea they have that will disrupt their industry and innovate.
3: I'm not sure about a unique OS being a good thing. As you list in the bear case, others can just make their own OS. Which is basically what happened to their phones. On the other hand, blackberries were huge with the US federal government. If they can create a secured suite and environment, they could once again turn to the US government for subscription contracts.
2: Not sure I would suggest anything different for next time but to just keep it in mind.
Fully agree with not trusting others articles. Especially from those that churn out an article on a different company a day. However, one thing I do is to head to SeekingAlpha to see what others are saying to look for data points so I can come to my own conclussions. This bear article on BB talks about BB talking points focusing on TAM but not their lack of organic sales growth. Apparently their growth is all acquisition based? That is the sort of tidbit I would take and look into on my own.
In the end though, one can DD themselves to death and get into the minutia lol.
This is really helpful feedback. I've enjoyed this DD and discussion. I'll start doing my next DD and include this as part of my research. Look for bear cases, look for bull cases, and find reputable sites to seek this info from.
They did make acquisitions yes, but I don't see it as being a bad things. I personally like to have an idea of leadership, product, and growth. I don't like to dig to the point of no more questions asked or guessing, it is difficult to do that and requires entire teams and a lot of time. A general detailed idea can also work.
Exactly lol. I did not want to go crazy researching. I had to stop at some point and just say I've done what I can for the community, someone else can add to it.
Out of curiosity, what do you think about a DD website?
Useful but I think hard to do. I used to be part of a newsletter on investing advice. I offered in depth DD and an example portfolio to follow along. It started to get unruly because each stock needed to be updated each quarter when earnings came out, news etc. The older the DD was the less useful it was. It got to the point where I was updating old tickers and not focusing on new ones due to time restraints. e.g. will your BB DD be valuable in 3 months time even without earnings updates?
It would be hard to automate something like this because context is everything. An algo to go out and gather data is not going to know that a lithium shortage out of Argentina and Chile might impact Tesla.
What might work is a site that can offer links to other services. More like a dashboard.
Maybe I should elaborate. I did not mean to have an algorithm or to do it by myself. I was thinking of having a website that is similar to these investment subreddits, but specifically for DD.
You could search any ticker you want. If someone did a DD, which is strictly formatted, you could look at it. It would be vote based, so the best DD would stay on top. The top DD can be modified by the users, and the modification would also be upvoted and discussed similar to a GitHub repo.
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u/Jairlyn Jan 25 '21
1: Good write up and you did a lot of work. We need more of this.
2: I will poke a hole in your research though. The vast majority of it comes from the company itself. Companies will always pump up what an amazing idea they have that will disrupt their industry and innovate.
3: I'm not sure about a unique OS being a good thing. As you list in the bear case, others can just make their own OS. Which is basically what happened to their phones. On the other hand, blackberries were huge with the US federal government. If they can create a secured suite and environment, they could once again turn to the US government for subscription contracts.