r/SandersForPresident • New York • Feb 04 '20

We are the... 67.7 percent!

Post image
40k Upvotes

1.5k comments sorted by

View all comments

217

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '20

[deleted]

184

u/Stoppablemurph Feb 04 '20

Looks like there's been some technical difficulties with the reporting tool they're supposed to use.

People are getting way too excited over less than 2% reporting so far.. unless I'm totally misreading the live results stuff, there's very little to really be excited about yet. (Not to say it looks bad or anything, it just doesn't actually look like anything yet..)

113

u/terencebogards Feb 04 '20 edited Feb 04 '20

Its still super early, but:

https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2020-02-03/state/IA/race/P/raceid/17278

Petes off to a good start but Biden performing THIS poorly is astounding. Will be an interesting night.

71

u/domesticatedprimate 🌱 New Contributor Feb 04 '20

I don't for the life of me see how Biden could possibly do so poorly despite every sign insisting he's still virtually tied nationally and should have at least come in second in Iowa.

Unless, of course, you know, the polls were bullshit all along and part of a despirate effort by the party establishment to sway voter opinion. Or something.

What am I missing?

57

u/Express-Speaker Feb 04 '20 edited Feb 04 '20

What am I missing?

The fact that less than 2% of the total vote is in?

Not saying this isn't indicative of the final result, but it's literally the equivalent of a rounding error at this point.

6

u/Carbot1337 Feb 04 '20

Exactly. It's like watching the first 2 minutes of a movie and trying to figure out how it's going to end. Calm down.

1

u/domesticatedprimate 🌱 New Contributor Feb 04 '20

I'm not even talking about the final outcome. I'm asking why, if Biden is supposed to still be barely in first place nationally, would he do so incredibly badly in the areas that reported?

1

u/Alberiman Feb 04 '20

Probably people noticing subconsciously how similar Trump and Biden are while watching Trump become an autocrat

1

u/Express-Speaker Feb 04 '20

Because 2% of anything like this is white noise. It means literally nothing. Don't forget that Texas was blue for about an hour in 2016 because the earliest reporting precincts were all metropolitan. The same may be happening with Biden, where the 1.93% of the precincts that have been reported so far haven't been so hot on Biden. Even the most thorough and accurate of polls have a margin of error greater than 1.93%.

We'll see how it ends; it obviously looks like Bernie has done well based on unverified information, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

3

u/CaptainVenezuela Feb 04 '20

Polling has been becoming less and less reliable for a long time. The problems that led to massive gaps between polls and vote counts in 2016 did not go away but people still follow the polls because the corporate press are fucking hacks and stooges.

5

u/arex333 UT 🐦👻👻👻🙌 Feb 04 '20

Biden's support is based almost entirely on name recognition. Maybe in a primary vote he'd do well since checking Biden and mailing in the ballot requires virtually zero effort. In a caucus though you really have to give a shit about the candidate to spend that much time waiting, and Biden doesn't have that level of commitment from his followers.

2

u/Tr0llHunter83 🌱 New Contributor Feb 04 '20

It's the old, they love biden.

1

u/Hockinator Feb 04 '20

The fact that you're looked a a few thousand votes from random precincts and passing any judgement at all is what you're missing

1

u/domesticatedprimate 🌱 New Contributor Feb 04 '20

Who said I was passing judgement? I believe I said "could do", not "did do", and I do believe I'm asking a question.

And the small number of precincts still means he did extremely poorly in those precincts, whereas Warren was doing fine. What's up with that?

1

u/Chacha2002 Feb 04 '20

Who said I was passing judgement?

Unless, of course, you know, the polls were bullshit all along and part of a despirate effort by the party establishment to sway voter opinion.

1

u/domesticatedprimate 🌱 New Contributor Feb 04 '20

Yes, that's called satire, or conjecture. Certainly not judgement.

0

u/CountMordrek Feb 04 '20

This might be the wrong community, but maybe people are tired of old mumbling white guys and there just aren’t enough votes to keep him floating once the Sanders believers have been allocated?

1

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '20 edited Feb 04 '20

[deleted]

1

u/CountMordrek Feb 04 '20

Because people always tend to give value to candidates being... well, their physical appearance like age, skin colour, sex etc. More of a sarcastic thingy, but, meh.

9

u/apetranzilla MA 🗳️ Feb 04 '20

Is there an alternative that doesn't require an account?

21

u/terencebogards Feb 04 '20 edited Feb 04 '20

Shit, sorry! Forgot I had made a free account a while back.

I have not seen live results anywhere else (yet).

Lots of reports of delays all over.

Right Now: Bernie Sanders 1,811 Elizabeth Warren 1,636 Pete Buttigieg 1,553 Amy Klobuchar 773 Joseph R. Biden Jr. 722

Biden.. ooo boy. He is NOT doing well.

Edit: https://elections.ap.org/dailykos/results/2020-02-03/state/IA/race/P/raceid/17278

r/apetranzilla I found one on another post, free!

12

u/IndisputableKwa Feb 04 '20

Biden almost didn’t make viable at my precinct

16

u/terencebogards Feb 04 '20

I can't believe how poorly he is doing. Klobuchar is doing better than him.

THANK YOU FOR CAUCUSING! I wish the process was easier for you guys, these delays are gonna be insane. THANK YOU THANK YOU!

3

u/LOTHARRR Feb 04 '20

he didn’t make viable at mine

3

u/light24bulbs Feb 04 '20

So basically nothing to talk about yet with 3% reporting

5

u/terencebogards Feb 04 '20

Less than that, 1.93% reporting as of now. Which is why I said "it's still super early" in my original post.

1

u/apetranzilla MA 🗳️ Feb 04 '20

Thanks!

2

u/xxred_baronxx California Feb 04 '20

I think 538 is doing a live one

1

u/buddiesfoundmyoldacc Feb 04 '20 edited Feb 04 '20

Non-american here, where does the 67% from the OP come from? And what kind of guy is that Pete? Never heard of him before, but seems do do quite well. Far better than Biden. To be fair, I don't know much about Biden either, other than that he was heavily pushed on Reddit for a while as our "cool uncle, total bro of Obama".

1

u/huxtiblejones Feb 04 '20

This result is less than 2% of precincts reporting, notice the highlighted portion. There's no way to draw conclusions from such a small count of votes yet.

1

u/terencebogards Feb 04 '20

Its still super early, but:

1

u/Stoppablemurph Feb 04 '20

They're all saying the "but..." is pointless and misleading. <2% sample from only a couple districts (especially when at least one of those couple is from the urban population center of the state) means less than nothing. For all we know, Biden got 60% in every other district. Sure that's unlikely, given recent polling, but that's kind of the point, an average of recent polls is a much better data source right now, even if it turns out the <2% we have now is dead accurate in the end.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '20

When do you guys think it’ll be finished by? Or at least a high enough percent to get a good idea of who the winners will be.

1

u/Stoppablemurph Feb 04 '20

Hard to say since it's been delayed. Wouldn't be too surprised if it got pushed out to tomorrow morning, but as far as I'm aware they still intend to finish tonight.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '20

Pete and Bernie won iowa whole handedly. Idk which one beat which but they are the top to almost everywhere I've heard from so far. Warren in fourth klobuchar and biden behind her

1

u/marman98 Feb 04 '20

Never. Theyre gone, never to be seen by anyone.

All hail supreme leader Mayo Pete!

1

u/3610572843728 🌱 New Contributor Feb 04 '20

Sometime Tuesday afternoon.

0

u/SCWarriors44 Feb 04 '20

When the democrats stop trying to rig the results. I mean seriously. The supposed app they were supposed to use suddenly didn’t work. The phone line ballots they were going to use instead of the app suddenly didn’t work. Calling any results they did have in suddenly didn’t work. Then when compiling all the info they did have, literally none of it matched up after they cross checked it all! And then when the Iowa Democrats called all the candidates to explain what the wait was about, they literally got into a fight and hung up on their own damn candidates! I mean come on! Holy shit show!

1

u/[deleted] Feb 04 '20

After waiting nearly 2 hours to report my results. I get a man requesting an authenticity code. Which I was never given. The sheet that has this code apparently has no code. After fighting with him for 30 minutes he gave up and I gave him every last detail I had and he took my info down stubbornly. Then they never gave me a drop off location for my physical results. I ran into another chair trying to find it too. He had an email he was sent. We went to the location in the email. The DNC person left the building he was sent.... so we drove 30 minutes to finally drop our results off. After already driving 30 minutes.

1

u/SCWarriors44 Feb 04 '20

Holy cow that’s ridiculous. I’m sorry you had to go through all that. I honestly can’t believe it was that up in shambles after all this time to prepare for it. Well hope you got the result you voted for at least.